Belichick’s Decision, Marc Bulger & Other Takes
Rainy days and Mondays… ugh.
My radio show on 101 ESPN expands to three hours starting today, which means my hot air will now run frm 11 a.m. until 2 p.m. I’m going to try and take advantage of the earlier wake-up time to bang out some quick thoughts here on ‘5 Minutes’ most mornings.
Let’s go:
1. I’m in the minority but I don’t think Bill Belichick was crazy to go for it on 4th down: First of all, I love the fact that the Patriots coach has the guts to make such a bold decision. Most NFL coaches are robots, content to play it safe, reluctant to take a chance. But I don’t think this was as big of a gamble as others do. Unusual, yes, to go for it from your own 28-yard line up by six with Peyton Manning waiting in the wings. Unusual but not wacko. In terms of playing the percentages, Belichick had the odds on his side, at least if you buy into this quick study of NFL stats and probabilities. The math aside, here’s why I was OK with the call: by going for it on 4th down, the Patriots had two chances to win. They (1) make the first down; (2) if they don’t make it their defense still has a chance to stop the Colts. But if the Patriots punt there, they have one chance to win the game: prevent what probably would have been a 70-yard drive by the Colts. There are some other factors, of course. The Patriots offense wasn’t clicking; up to that 4th down play they’d run 19 fourth-quarter plays for 54 yards. And though Manning was mostly terrific, the Patriots did intercept two of his passes. Those who rip Coach Hoodie’s move have a strong case. I’m just saying I believe there was some merit to the decision. People — including some of Belichick’s former players — say that by going for it on fourth down, Belichick showed no faith in his defense. I would suggest that it takes a lot of faith in the New England defense to take a risk that set up Manning 29 yards from the end zone and winning TD. It’s a fun debate, isn’t it?
2. About Marc Bulger: The Rams QB actually played well overall against the Saints; it was one of his better games in a while. Bulger had a couple of receivers making plays (Brandon Gibson, Donnie Avery) and you could see the difference. But let’s be honest here: when the Rams began that final drive from their 20, down by 5 points with 2:21 to go, how many of you had confidence in Bulger’s ability to engineer a winning drive? Seriously. Did you really believe he was going to pull it off? I didn’t. And that final possession was a mess. The Rams didn’t spike the ball to stop the clock at any point on that drive; Bulger’s game management left a lot to be desired. But again, a lot of what he did up to that point was pretty good. And in Bulger’s defense (somewhat), it’s not as if the Rams have had a lot of practice running a 2-minute drill to win a game.
3. The Saints have two potential problems as they move forward with a 9-0 record: (1) too many turnovers on offense; (2) soft defense against the run in recent games. In the last six games the Saints have given up 140 yards rushing per game and 5 yards per carry.
4. College basketball is underway, and I’m just not feeling it yet. I don’t know why.
5. The key to Missouri’s win at Kansas State: stopping K-State’s running game. Say what you want about Blaine Gabbert and Danario Alexander and the resurgent MU passing game. It was going to be a long day in Manhattan unless the Tigers got physical and proved that they were capable of shutting down the Wildcats on the ground. The Mizzou defense asserted itself early by stuffing the run and completely changed the psychology of the competition; K-State found out early that it could not impose its will on the visiting team.
6. Tennessee’s Chris Johnson is the most exciting RB to come into the NFL in a long time. The guy is amazingly fast. He had 132 yards rushing and 100 yards receiving in Sunday’s win over Buffalo. He leads the NFL in rushing yards and total yards from scrimmage. He’s averaging 150.3 yards from scrimmage per game. He’s had 27 runs of 10+ yards. He has the potential to take it to the house every time he handles the football.
7. I don’t know why Stanford’s Jim Harbaugh decided to run it up on USC. I know that USC’s Pete Carroll has bullied some teams in the Pac 10 through the years, and we know what they say about payback. But Harbaugh is building a good program at Stanford. This was a great victory for his team. Why not stay above the usual nonsense and win with class? By needlessly going for a 2-pt conversion in a 55-21 blowout, Harbaugh took the focus off Stanford’s magnificent performance at USC. Instead, writers and pundits and fans and talking heads are yapping about that in-your-face conversion.
8. What else is there to say about the Blues? Plenty of chances on Saturday night against San Jose; 39 shots on goal. A better work rate. Lots of good things. But again: this team does not have finishers. And untl they prove otherwise, Keith Tkachuk and Paul Kariya appear to be out of gas. Kariya doesn’t have a goal or assist in his last 10 games. Tkachuk has no goals and only two assists in his last 14.
9. Manny Pacquiao vs. Miguel Cotto: It’s ridiculous, how good Pacquiao is. Unbelievably fast hands and an endless supply of energy. His fists start flying in Round 1 and they don’t chopping away until another foe is vanquished. The thing is, Cotto actually fough a good fight. He had some things working. And Pac Man still beat him down to the point that Cotto’s wife son left their ringside seats after the 9th round. The bout was mercifully stopped in the 12th round. Pac Man landed 333 punches. And how about the punching angles? You never know how Pacquiao will change shape, or where he’s coming from, before he unloads. There’s a martial arts touch to his approach. A Pacquiao vs. Floyd Mayweather bout would be crazy good.
10. Here’s a cryptic comment and you’ll have to figure out what I’m talking about: Steven Jackson is Floyd Little.
Thanks for reading …
-Bernie
*So you’re saying that Jackson is going to help keep the rams in stl, kinda like Little did for the Broncos back in the day? I hope you’re right….
*Take that USC
*I think we saw Bulger’s A-game this Sunday, and it still wasn’t good enough (to win)…
*The blues are the most disappointing story I’ve seen since it was decided that pluto was no longer a planet.
*I’m personally excited to see some college basketball. I want to see how mizzou hoops are this year, especially after watching the underachieving football team all season long
Have to agree regarding Bulger. Just can’t agree on that Belichick decision. I think he’s taking on too much risk with that call. On a key play like that, there’s a good chance the D steps it up with a superior effort and gets pressure or a sack. While I can’t say it happened that way, the D did have good coverage and prevented the 1st down. If Brady was successful, I’d still have thought it was a poor decision. But I did enjoy watching New England come up short. Even more enjoyable was the fact that it was so close, but Belichick had no more time-outs to challenge it. Whoops, guess he shouldn’t have taken that time-out just prior to the play.
Interesting Floyd Little analogy…
USC pretty much deserves everything they get…
Bulger isn’t nearly in the same quarterback class as Drew Brees but he doesn’t have nearly the same overall talent depth surrounding him either…it would have been intersting to see if Drew Brees could have led that Rams offense to a winning score…somehow I doubt it…
The Blues, by virtue of their incredible stretch run last year, raised the expectations of their fans to an unrealistic level for this year…that being said, the so called veteran leaders of this team are what’s causing the issues, not Andy Murray…if Paul, Walt, Andy, Brad, and company don’t pick it up soon we’ll be in play for the #1 pick overall…again…
How can anyone say that this Missouri football team has been under achieving given the amount of talent lost from last year…take a look at the 2-deep roster and notice the lack of seniors…this team is going to be really good next year and even better the year after…two very winnable games against Iowa State and KU potentially leaves us at 8-4 with a decent bowl game…all things considered, a pretty strong season…I am with you though regarding MU basketball…the future is bright…
Thanks, Bernie. Here’s a reader’s two cents in return:
Like Floyd, Steven is capable of leading the NFL in yards from scrimmage for 5 seasons and is the face of a franchise, providing a touchstone for tying the team to the city of St. Louis.
I saw the Billikens home opener and while SEMO is SEMO, I thought SLU played with great energy and Willie Reed, who is still to slim to mix it up with the (really) big boys, has great hands and is extremely smooth under the basket. This team will be MUCH better than their pre-season 12th place A10 pick. BTW why is it still the Atlantic10?
I remember the days when we lauded Bulger’s clock management. Like so many other aspects of his game it has declined, but I think it is directly a product of what he is surrounded by. He is a mediocre quarterback who is made good with the right ensemble resulting in SuperBowl and ProBowl appearances. In that regard he is like most quarterbacks in the NFL who succeed at some level. The quarterback who elevates those around him occurs a lot less often than we think, but we expect it all the time. He is not that calibre of player. So…I either the Rams try to find that quarterback or the other pieces fall into place and his play is elevated again.
I’m with you Bernie concerning Coach Cheater, if the catch was made cleanly it’s game ,set, and match. I lost faith in Bulger a long time ago,I have already started looking for next season to come and a chance to get a better seat location at the ED. I see some promise in the players that this new coach and front office have brought in. I did not expect the team to win a lot of games this season, but yesterday I think we got a glimpse of things to come with.
Bernie,
I agree that although USC may deserve to have the score run up on them, Stanford should be too classy to lower themselves to USC’s level…
Bernie, heard you trying to sell your viewpoint on the Belicheck decision on the radio. Why does this play interest you so much? If you ask me, Belichick gambled and lost. If he succeeded, we’d be hearing about how brilliant he was. But, I wouldn’t have called it brilliance. I’d have called it good luck that bailed out a poor decision. Maybe he’s starting to lose that glow. Or perhaps he’s just gotten too cocky in his own coaching abilities. He wasn’t playing Detroit or Cleveland here. So there was no reason to expect better odds.
Hey Bernie, with the holidays coming up, fittingly it was like the ghost of Bulger past reappeared. Sunday was the old Bulger revisited. Almost 300 yards passing, a 93 QB rating, 2 touchdown passes, but also the same quarterback who doesn’t know how to lead a team to victory. 7 years this guy has been our starter and hoping for Bulger to engineer a successful Rams comeback is like a Cubs fan hoping for a World Series. It ain’t gonna happen. I find it interesting that Bulger has done well against Greg Williams twice now. He had that 4 TD game on Xmas Eve in 06 against the Skins. I thought Williams was suppose to be an aggressive coordinator, but in both games against Bulger he pretty much was content just rushing 4 linemen. And Bernie, Bulgers an 8 year vet now, there’s really no excuse not being able to execute a 2 minute drill. Not for a QB that has quarterbacked talented offenses here in the past. There’s no excuse for this. He acts like he’s overwhelmed when put in that situation, as if he’s a rookie. He was the same thing in Jacksonville earlier this year. Terrible. And furthermore, again, another gem of an interview clip from Bulger on the game, he said give credit to the Saints because they were able to finish, hopefully we can learn from them. 7+ years, and Bulger is still trying to learn how to finish? Give me a break……I think Belichick goofed. Punt the ball, and make Manning go the 60 or 70 yards needed. As great as Manning is, it’s not a guarantee that he’s going to pull it out. I just think it’s a bad way to lose and some people will perceive it as Belichick being fearful of Manning. And now with this loss, the Pats might have to go back there and play them again in the playoffs. Belichick should of just played this straight. This move by Belichick plays to the Colts advantage in many different ways. Have a nice day!
You may be right regarding the Floyd Little comparison. Floyd was an excellent RB and made All Pro 5 times. Unfortunately, the Broncos were a poor team until the very end of his career. SJax will likely face a similar fate here. Got to disagree with you on Belichick’s choice on 4th & 2 at that part of the field. It was a bad tactical move. It was like watching a good chess player make a move that would put himself into “check” for the opponent. You can’t give a great team, like Indy, 28 yards to work with against a mediocre defense. Can’t risk it and give your team the best chance to win. He blew it. Still, maybe if Maroney doesn’t cough up the rock on the Indy goal line earlier in the game, the Pats may have won with ease….so it’s not all on Belichick.
Glad to hear you have an extra hour on 101. Solid show.
Good comparison of SJax with Floyd Little. I hope SJax goes down in St. Louis Rams’ history as “The Franchise” as well. He is right now for sure.