One of Jason Isringhausen’s problems this season is his diminishing ability to get hitters to swing and miss. He’s making good pitches, but isn’t finishing off hitters at the same rate. 

As always, I have statistics. 

Let’s take a look at Izzy’s career as a Cardinal in two areas: (1) the percentage of swings and misses, and (2) his strikeouts per batters faced:

Is he making hitters miss? Not as much as he once did.

The yearly percentage of swings and misses vs. Isringhausen:

2008:  16.9

2007:  22.9

2006:  21.9

2005:  24.5

2004:  24.8

2003:  25.2

2002:  26.2

Obviously, the rate is dropping.

Now, here’s Isringhausen’s rate of strikeouts per batters faced:

2008:  .159

2007:  .202

2006:  .202

2005:  .208

2004:  .231

2003:  .236

2002:  .265

Obviously, his K-rate is dropping, too.

What does it mean? Well, hitters (generally) are putting more balls in play against the STL closer. And that’s bad news for him, because the hitters are racking Isringhausen for a .304 batting average this season on balls put in play. That’s by far his career high as a Cardinal; the next-highest BA/BIP was .259, which occured way back in 2002, his first season with St. Louis.

Too much contact is not a good thing at this stage of Izzy’s career. But unless he can make the hitters start missing more than they are, the trend will likely continue.

 –B

As usual, many are missing the point by obsessing over Duncan’s glove and flinging insults at him.

Duncan’s defense has always been below average.

Not as bad as some charge; last season he ranked 20th among regular MLB left fielders in revised zone rating, which made him below average (but not among the very worst) in getting to, and catching, the balls that he should get to and catch. (But Monday’s game in Denver was awful; I won’t try to defend that).

 The Cardinals clearly were justified in carrying Duncan’s glove because of his bat. From the start of the 2006 season until around the All-Star break of 2007, Duncan had one of the best OBP + SLG numbers in the majors, especially against RH pitchers. (I’ll cite a couple stats: from opening day 2006 until the 2007 All-Star break, Duncan ranked fifth in the NL in slugging percentage and eighth in the NL in OPS against all pitching).So the Cardinals clearly were making a sensible trade-off by getting Duncan’s bat into the lineup even if it mean sacrificing some defense. Besides, it’s not exactly a novel approach to put a shaky glove in LF; historically managers have used the position as a preserve for their defensively challenged boppers.As long as Duncan hits for power, then there’s no reason to whine about his defense.But he’s no longer hitting for power.

Todd Wellemeyer went five gritty innings to pick up the win. He didn’t have good stuff, and walked four, but kept fighting the Cubs off when they had a chance to break through in a substantial way.  The Cubs went 1 for 7 with runners in scoring position against Wellemeyer (with a SAC fly)…

Opinion: During Sunday’s broadcast, ESPN’s Joe Morgan said something to the effect that Wellemeyer wasn’t a strikeout pitcher.

Fact: going into Sunday’s start, Wellemeyer ranked 7th among NL pitchers (and ninth in MLB) in strikeouts per batters faced. That’s a strikeout pitcher…

Stat geek: Cardinals starting pitchers at Busch Stadium this season are 13-4, 2.73 ERA.

Izzy was as sharp Sunday as we’ve seen him all year. He needed 12 pitches to set Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Theriot and Derrek Lee down in order in the 9th. He hit 92, 93, 94 mph on the gun. Friday, he couldn’t do anything right. Saturday he came to the ballpark and proclaimed that he was going to start his season over. Sunday, on the first day of his “new” season, he was lights out. ”I told myself I was start the season over…. you just pin your ears back and go at them with everything you’ve got… I just tried to go out there and let it all loose.” And he did. Ah, the turbulent life of a closer. Bum to hero to bum to hero…

Stat geek: On April 12, Adam Kennedy’s batting average fell to .214. Since then, he’s 18 for 45 (.400) with a .429 onbase % and a .467 slug. Kennedy is 6 for 12 vs. LHP this season.  Last season he was 5 for 41 (.122) vs. LHP.

I thought a huge moment in the game occured in the 7th inning, when rookie Cardinals reliever Kyle McClellan got himself into an all-out jam by loading the bases with no one out. Derrek Lee (23 RBIs) came up. McClellan jammed the big fella and got a short pop out to right field. Randy Flores pitched effectively to Fukudome, who managed a SAC fly that scored a run to make it 5-3. And then Ryan Franklin came in to retire Mark DeRosa on a fly ball to end the inning. McClellan is fearless. Had he capitulated to Lee in that situation, this one probably ends differently. But after digging a big hole, McClellan kept his poise, and got a crucial out.

Pre-game transaction: Pitcher Anthony Reyes was sent to Class AAA Memphis before Sunday’s game, and pitcher Mike Parisi was recalled and issued uniform # 65. Parisi is at Busch Stadium for tonight’s game. But we’d be surprised to see him pitch. Joel Pineiro, who is scheduled to start Monday’s series-opener in Colorado, has been stricken with back spasms. If he can’t start, Parisi will get the assignment. Or if Pineiro has to leave the start early, Parisi is first in line to pitch long relief.

What this means for Reyes: He’ll have a chance to start every five days. And that’s a good thing for Reyes and the Cardinals. He was fine in relief, but if he’s to have any trade value at all, it will be as a starter. And if Reyes can do what he normally does at Triple A Memphis — dominate hitters — the trade market for him will expand. A few teams already are interested, but they view Reyes as a starter, and want to see him do that before assessing his trade value. It’s hard for intrigued parties to scout Reyes when he’s appearing only occasionally in relief.

When I ran this theory by a high-ranking Cardinals official — Reyes has a chance to showcase himself in Memphis – it wasn’t exactly shot down. 

Parisi was 2-1 with a 4.41 ERA for Memphis and was bashed by Salt Lake City in his most recent start, surrendering 10 hits, four walks and seven runs on April 29….

This first Cards-Cubs series also pitted two of the finest defensive first baseman in the game in Albert Pujols and Derrek Lee.  In the John Dewan plus-minus system, Pujols was by far the best first baseman in the majors last season; his plus 37 easily topped all other 1B. But Lee is awfully good. Superb. He saved at least two runs with a diving catch of a ripped Chris Duncan line drive in the first inning Sunday. Going into Sunday’s game, who was fielding better? Well, Pujols had a .926 revised zone rating (the Dewan system) and Lee’s RZR was .816. Long way to go, and it probably doesn’t matter. Managers and coaches usually screw up in voting for the Gold Glove awards.

Stat geek: Cardinals infielders Troy Glaus, Adam Kennedy, Cesar Izturis, Aaron Miles and Brendan Ryan have combined for 351 at-bats…. and ONE home run this season.

–B

Until Saturday, Cardinals starter Kyle Lohse hadn’t given up more than three runs in an inning this season, and that happened only twice. But the Cubs hung six on Lohse in the fourth inning of Saturday’s 9-3 loss.  Big innings were one of Lohse’s problems before he arrived in St. Louis. In 2007, he gave up three runs or more in an inning 14 times. The Cardinals must hope that this isn’t the start of a regression.

Busch Stadium had been a very kind yard for Lohse until Saturday; in his previous seven starts here he went 3-1 with a 1.94 ERA.

When Cubs reliever Carlos Marmol hit Rick Ankiel in the back of the legs with a pitch in the ninth inning Saturday, do you suppose it was some sort of response to the Cardinals’ Adam Wainwright hitting Aramis Ramirez on the wrist in Friday’s game? Probably not, even though Ramirez missed Saturday’s contest with a bruised and swollen wrist. I’m just sayin’ …

Update: Troy Glaus at Busch Stadium this season … .194 / .273 / .313

Every year (it seems) the Cubs have one hitter who bedevils the Cardinals. It doesn’t matter how they pitch the guy; he hammers them. The list of Cubs who have owned the Cardinals in the past include Hector Villanueva, Mike Barrett, and Daryle Ward. Apparently, it’s Mike Fontenot’s turn now.

As you know, manager Tony La Russa likes to bat the pitcher eighth in the lineup. Here’s a little stat for you: so far this season the Cardinals have gotten only six fewer RBIs from the No. 8 spot than they have from the No. 4 spot in their lineup. The No. 8 hitters have combined for 12 ribbies; the cleanup hitters have only 18.

It’s the former Cub (Todd Wellemeyer) vs. the former Cardinal (Jason Marquis) on Sunday night at Busch. Wellemeyer has never faced the Cubs. Last season, in his first with the Cubs, Marquis went 3-1 with a 3.60 ERA. Wellemeyer has leveled off in recent outings. In his last four starts he has a 5.04 ERA.

The Cubs’ terrific all-around performance in Saturday’s win showed why they’re the only team in the NL Central capable of sprinting off and running away from the others in the division …

Cubs starter Ted Lilly really pounded the strike zone in Saturday’s win; I don’t know why more pitchers don’t try to do that to the Cardinals, who lack home run power.

Albert Pujols has an onbase percentage of .518. There’s a long way to go to the end of the season. But since 1900, only six players have finished a season with an OBP higher than .500: Babe Ruth, Rogers Hornsby, Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, Mickey Mantle and John McGraw.

Enjoy Sunday’s game…

–B

Hell of a start to the series, with the opener being won by the Cardinals 5-3 in 11 innings.

 xx The Cubs slapped the Cardinals around last season, going 11-5 overall and 7-2 at Busch. For the Cardinals to contend, that must change. And fitting that Adam Wainwright got the season’s first start vs. the Cubs, because last season the Cubs punished him. In four 2007 starts against Chicago, Wainwright was 0-3 with an 8.72 ERA. If the Cardinals are to turn things around against the Cubs, guys like Wainwright have to establish the attitude, and the standard. And he did his part Friday night, with 6.1 innings of 4-hit, 1-run ball. He deserved the win and a better fate, but Jason Isringhausen was rocked  by a 2-run Alfonso Soriano HR in the 9th.

xx Wainwright, by the way, has a 2.88 ERA since last May 16. The only NL starters with a better ERA since then are Jake Peavy and Brandon Webb.

xx Jason Isringhausen says he’s fine, physically, even though he’s been way off form over his last seven appearances, with three blown saves, a 13.50 ERA and a .367 BA against.  I respect this man a great deal; he’s a warrior. But he had major hip surgery. The hip is arthritic. I’d like to accept it, no questions asked, when Izzy and manager Tony La Russa say he’s feeling good. And I know that it is against Izzy’s code to make excuses. He’ll take the hit rather than admit to physical discomfort. But I can’t help but be skeptical. Because I heard all of this before in 2006 … and in Sept. of that season, Isringhausen finally had no choice but to acknowledge the extremely bad hip condition, and take himself out of the bullpen, because he felt he was hurting the team.

xx Izzy is struggling against RH batters. Their line against him so far is .313 / .389 / .594.  And during this seven-game slide, RH are .333 / .391 / .762 vs. Isringhausen.

xx The problem pitch for Isringhausen vs. RH is the cutter. They’re mashing it.  And he isn’t getting many swings and misses lately.

Xx When the Cardinals signed veteran LH reliever Ron Villone, I shrugged. He’s pitched for something like 62 teams. He’s old. He’s one of those well-traveled lefties that just keep hanging around. I viewed him as a camp arm. But GM John Mozeliak found some gold in Villone. He’s been brilliant so far, with an 0.73 ERA in 11 games and a .128 BA against. And lefthanded hitters are 0-for-12 against Villone this season. Villone was one of the real stars of Friday’s game; after Izzy’s disaster he came on and got out of a jam (and then some) with 2.1 scoreless IP to get the win.

xx Troy Glaus … his batting line at Busch Stadium so far:  .206 / .288 / .333

xx Troy Glaus … his batting line away from Busch Stadium so far:  .310 / .442 / .529

xx Two more terrific plays by SS Cesar Izturis…. he does have value defensively, and sharp infield play is one of the reasons why the Cardinals’ pitching is so good this season.

xx Don’t tell La Russa or Lou Piniella that games played in early May are just games of no special importance. They combined to use 11 relievers Friday. How about Lou pulling Rich Hill in the top of the first? This isn’t a normal series.

(Update: Saturday the Cubs demoted Hill to Class AAA Iowa and inserted Jon Lieber into the rotation.)

xx Signing pitcher Jon Lieber was one of the best moves made by Cubs’ GM Jim Hendry before the season.  

xx Aflonso Soriano or Chris Duncan in LF … you make the call on the Gold Glove there.

xx  In his last 21 games, Cardinals OF Skip Schumaker is batting .376 with a .442 OBP and a .529 SLG. And he’s been wiping up RH pitchers. In those last 21 games, Schu is .406 / .461 / .609 against RHP.

xx Albert Pujols has struck out once against LHP in 35 plate appearances this season, according to Matthew Leach of MLB.com

xx This rookie Cubs catcher, Geovany Soto … he looks like a special talent. The Cubs and their fans should be very excited to have him.  

Enjoy Saturday’s game…

–B

Friday night marks the renewal of the funtastic Cubs-Cardinals rivalry, as the teams will play three at Busch Stadium.

And this one is easy to frame: all the pressure in the world is on the Cubs. The Cardinals have nothing to lose. According to the national baseball punditry, the Cardinals were supposed to be an also-ran this season, far up the track, and a hideous representation of a MLB team.  They were buried under 4th place, 5th place, predictions. Even that august publication, the Chicago Tribune, marked the Cardinals down for a 69-93 season.

Instead, the Cardinals won 18 games in April and emerged as a first-month surprise with their refurbished, budget-conscious roster.  Sure, the Cardinals have much to prove, and they’ll be facing better competition and a more difficult schedule. The test of 162 games exposes all weaknesses.

But so what? The Cardinals, who dominated the NL Central for so long, have switched roles and can delightfully play the role of pest, nuisance, spunky underdogs. The Cardinals used to spend the most money in the division, but that’s changed as the team undergoes a minor rebuilding, with an emphasis on younger, ascending players.

The Cub$, meanwhile, have been on a spending frenzy for the last two years, trying to become the NY Yankees of the National League as they handed out around $500 million in free-agent deals or contract extensions in an effort to win big, and as soon as possible.

(Sidebar: For some reason Cubs fans get irritated when the team’s profligate spending is mentioned, or when their Cubbies are praised for being a very good team, which I am doing in this entry. I can’t figure it out, unless of course, the theories have merit: do most Cubs fans prefer to play the role of long-suffering victims? Honest, I’ve never encountered a team’s fan base that gets insulted when you tell them they have a terrific ballclub, one that should win. It’s truly bizarre. I’ll leave the interpretation to the psychologists.)

The latest Cub$ purchase was the splendid Japanese outfielder, Fukudome, who signed for 4 years, $48 million over the winter. That contract went into the top-dollar file along with the previous deals for Alfonso Soriano ($136 million), Carlos Zambrano ($91.5 million), Aramis Ramirez ($75 million), Derrek Lee ($65 million), Ted Lilly ($40 million), Jason Marquis ($21 million) and Mark DeRosa ($13 million).

Hey, but at least the Cardinals countered with Cesar Izturis…

The Cubs have a helluva team. They’ve spruced up their one weakness, a lack of plate discipline. They’re drawing walks, getting on base, setting up a feast of RBI opportunities for the big fellas. The Cubs head into the weekend with a one-point lead (.375) over the Cardinals for the best onbase percentage in the NL. The lineup is loaded with OBP machines, including Lee (.431), Ramirez (.406), Fukudome (.455), Geovany Soto (.421), DeRosa (.405), Ryan Theriot (.409) and Ronny Cedeno (.462.) 

Soriano has just returned from the DL — and oddly enough, his free-swinging ways may actually have a nominal negative impact on a lineup that’s been taking a lot of intelligent at-bats. He had a mediocre OBP of .337 at the top of the lineup card last season, and so far this season has an abysmal batting line of  .164 / .215 / .279 in 61 at-bats. Will that remain at the top o’ the lineup?

The power/RBI men abound. The Cubs already have four guys with 20 or more RBIs (Lee, Ramirez, De Rosa and Soto, the impressive young catcher). And despite the holes in his swing, Soriano is good for 30+ homers this season. The Cubs (.453, second in the NL) hold the slugging advantage over the Cardinals (seventh at .415).

The Cubs rotation isn’t in gear yet, with Lilly and Marquis off to sluggish starts. But Zambrano and Ryan Dempster are a combined 8-1, and lefty Rich Hill is pitching well enough. The bullpen is the big question, especially at the end of games. There have been too many loose moments, with six blown saves in 14 opps. Kerry Wood’s conversion to closer isn’t going smoothly. Though Wood can be difficult to hit (.200 BA against), when he’s bad, he’s really bad. He threw another shoe Thursday in a 4-3 loss to Milwaukee. It was Wood’s third blown save of the season; he’s 4 of 7. But manager Loe Piniella does have a viable option to close in the dynamic Carlos Marmol, who has a 1.42 ERA so far, with a blistering strikeout rate of 27 in 19 IP. Opponents are batting .141 vs. Marmol.  

The Cubs come into STL having lost five of their last seven, good for 17-11, and a half-game behind the 18-11 Cardinals. Though the bullpen has created headaches, the Cubs definitely have one of the best teams in the NL, and there’s no reason why they shouldn’t be strong season. Piniella will get the ‘pen straightened out. Remember, the Cubs slogged around during a 24-32 start last season before going 15 games over .500 after June 5. 

There are no excuses for the North Siders. When you spend $500 million in 24 months, you’d better have players who produce and deliver, and you’d better get impressive results. And the Cubs have assembled a very impressive roster.

 It’s going to be fascinating to see if the Cardinals can keep up with the best ATM and OBP machines in the NL Central. The Cardinals can play loose and have fun because no one expects them to win. And they last won a World Series in 2006,  which, if I’m not mistaken, is more recent than 1908.   

–B

I’ve never understood why fans of a team worry about what some guys on ESPN or the NFL Network say in declaring instant judgment on the team’s draft. 

Of all the foolish things in sports, one of silliest are these immediate report cards that pop up only hours after the NFL completes its annual draft. And worse than that, some fans want to believe that an instant draft grade is  the end all in determining success or failure. They get outraged for no reason… or celebrate … for no logical reason.

Sorry — I’m gonna watch the kids play for a year or two, and then we can talk about grades.

No one has flunked yet. No one has made the Dean’s list.

No one has even put a helmet on yet, for cripe’s sake.

How the heck does anyone know about the quality of the Rams draft when the players haven’t signed, haven’t been fitted for a uniform, haven’t practiced, haven’t made the team, haven’t played in a real game, haven’t gone through an entire season?

What’s the point?

It was crazy to see the hysterical reaction Saturday when the Rams drafted Houston wide receiver Donnie Avery in the second round. You’d think that the team had drafted Clyde Duncan, or something. Why? Because ESPN’s Mel Kiper and Todd McShay said taking Avery at No. 33 was a reach. Therefore, gullible fans believed it to be true. Other draft services had good marks on Avery, but since Mel is a celebrity draftnik, and he’s on TV, well it means that everything is as he says it is … right? TV is the God of a dumbed-down culture.

Meanwhile, a hard-working draft guy like Russ Lande Jr. of The Sporting News’ “War Room” had it scoped out ahead of time. Lande, a former NFL scout, is on the phone a lot, working the GMs and scouts and personnel people. And on April 24, Lande wrote that there was a lot of buzz about Avery, and that he was moving up the charts, and was into the second round, and could even get into the first round. In other words, Lande had it figured out. He wasn’t caught off guard, the way some of the other so-called experts were. And just because the celebrity draftheads failed to detect Avery’s huge upward move on NFL draft boards, that doesn’t mean the Rams were wrong to draft him. I’m not saying Lande is right about Avery, either. But at least I know the guy was busting his tail and doing his homework up until the draft started.

I have no idea if Avery will be a bust, or a star.

But I can see at least why the Rams viewed Avery as a fit.

Xx The Rams wideouts were slow last year — and this kid has great speed.

Xx The Rams wideouts got few yards after the catch last season — and Avery got good marks for his runs after the catch. (By the way, for the naysayers who point out that Avery played in a non BCS Conference, therefore his yards after the catch don’t mean much because they came against weaker competition. Really? Last season, among the top 15 wideouts in the NFL in yards after the catch, you could find players from Western Michigan (Greg Jennings), Northwest Oklahoma State (Patrick Crayton), Alabama-Birmingham (Roddy White), Central Florida (Brandon Marshall), Alcorn State (Donald Driver) and Utah (Steve Smith).

Xx New offensive coordinator Al Saunders wanted vertical speed, which the Rams lack — and Avery has it.

Xx Saunders wanted a WR he could put in the slot, and force the DBs to account for his scintillating downfield speed — instead of letting safeties cheat up to stop the run or take away the intermediate pass routes. Let’s see a safety have to cover Avery in the slot.

Xx The great Henry Ellard (Rams receivers coach) gave Avery a high grade.

So why in the world would anyone get their pants bunched up because Mel Kiper didn’t like the pick? The same fans who were throwing tantrums last year when Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce and Drew Bennett would make a catch and fall down are among the same people now snarling about the Rams drafting a 4.29 speed guy with a history of production, and an ability to cut loose and make things happen after the catch.

I also laughed at those who declared that Avery would have been there in the third round.

Not a chance.

There was a wild run on wideouts in the second round… 10 wideouts went off the board in round two. And if the Rams hadn’t popped Avery at No. 33 overall, there is no way he would have lasted the rest of the round. He would have been long gone by the start of Round 3; someone would have taken a chance on that speed.

Again: this doesn’t mean Avery will be just what the Rams need. All of these WRs had flaws in some way; that’s why none were taken in the first round. Still, there’s no question that Avery brings an interesting mix to the field. 

I also went back to read what draftniks had to say after the 1994 draft, when the Rams chose a WR in the second round, and at No. 33. Just like Avery. And their choice of that wideout was largely panned as a “reach.”

The receiver’s name?

Isaac Bruce.

Look, the Rams haven’t had a great recent draft history… which is why they recruited Billy Devaney to run things, and this was his first draft. Maybe this draft will stink in a couple of years. Maybe it will look great in two years. But for now it appears that the Rams landed a winner in Chris Long and a potential game-changer in Avery. They tried to add depth at the OL.  They added another receiver, Keenan Burton, which really gives the team a chance to freshen up a tired WR group. Didn’t we all agree they needed some younger, faster legs at WR?

Will these new Rams pay off, or fade away?

I have no idea. Neither does Kiper or anyone else.

Let the players play.

And we’ll watch.

And then we’ll know.

And in a couple of years, we can bring out the damned report cards.

Thanks for reading…

–B

We just finished listening to Billy Devaney and Scott Linehan explain their decision to draft UVA defensive end Chris Long with the second overall selection in the NFL Draft.

Honestly I can say I’ve never seen two football people more excited about choosing someone in a draft… it bordered on the comical, it was so over the top. “I’m a little geeked up right now,” Coach Linehan said.

The enthusiasm is great, and though I preferred LSU defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey (not that it matters), the Rams couldn’t go wrong with Long. He’ll give them everything he has, he’s a safer pick medically, and he fills a more pressing need.

 It’s impossible not to like Chris Long.

In gushing over C. Long, the interesting thing is, the Rams hardly talked about the football stuff, except for Long’s “high motor,” the cliche most often used to describe him.

Clearly, the Rams’ pick was more about drafting the person than the player. 

“This kid brings energy and life to the building,” Linehan said. “I can’t wait for you all to get to know him.”

And Devaney and Linehan talked a lot about Long’s father, NFL Hall of Famer Howie Long.

Howie Long was clearly a factor in the decision. “(Chris) was just what the doctor ordered, not just for the football team, but for our organization,” Linehan said. “What he’ll be able to bring to the team as far as other stuff…he inherited that from his father.”

Fasctinating.

And the odd thing is, the Rams didn’t deny that LSU defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey was No. 1 on their board.

But in the end, the Rams could not couldn’t resist Howie’s kid and all the intangibles he brings to the franchise.

-B  

Earlier in the day I wrote that Rams fans should get used to the idea of LSU defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey being the team’s No. 1 choice (and second overall) in Saturday’s NFL Draft.

I rated the chance of that happening at about 80 percent, but also offered reasons why it could turn in an opposite direction. 

And I promised to update if anything changed, which is what I am doing now.

 Dorsey is the No. 1 player on their board, so if the Rams follow their own ratings, Dorsey is the guy.

But I am told that there is a strong pocket of support at Rams Park for Virginia defensive end Chris Long… so for the Rams fans who want Long, keep the faith, because you still have a chance.

Among those who matter at Rams Park, Dorsey appears to have more votes in his corner, so I guess it just comes down to who wins the civil internal debate between now and Saturday.

I still believe Dorsey is the favorite, but someone in authority at Rams Park clearly has been aggressively leaking Long’s name to national draft pundits, and the intrigue continues to build.

I’ve made the case for Dorsey, but as I wrote in Thursday’s column, I wouldn’t knock the selection of Chris Long or Ohio State defensive end Vernon Gholston. All have impressive physical attributes and are impressive people.

Long would probably sell more tickets because he appears to be a more popular choice among the fans, and also among media folk who have developed a serious man crush on Howie’s kid.

Still I find this to be a curious situation, considering that the Rams have ranked Dorsey No. 1.

Perhaps it comes down to the perception that the Rams need a DE more than a DT, and if they take Long, that will most likely be the justification.

Still, a team stacking a board in a certain way after months of research and meetings, then tossing out their own ranking seems a little peculiar, but the Rams continue to be one of the most eccentric organizations in professional sports.

 Who knows? When I asked two questions in Thursday’s news conference to try and determine who would have the final say in the draft room in the event that there’s a split in the opinions, I couldn’t get a straight answer from VP of Personnel Billy Devaney.

As I wrote earlier, three things could scotch the Dorsey-STL connection:

1. If the Rams had any last-minute second thoughts about Dorsey’s medical issues (namely a stress fracture of his lower leg). But on Thursday, Devaney reiterated the team’s confidence in Dorsey’s viability and reminded reporters that the team had done of thorough job of investigating Dorsey’s  injury history. “We exhausted eveything,” Devaney said. “And we signed off on Dorsey’s health.” Coach Scott Linehan added that the Rams wouldn’t have a problem in playing last year’s No. 1 pick, Adam Carriker, at defensive end if they had to. Linehan pointed out that Carriker was an All-American DE at Nebraska. Carriker took most of his Rams’ rookie snaps at DT, but did see time at DE down the stretch.

2. If Rams president John Shaw insisted that the team draft another player, namely Arkansas RB Darren McFadden. Shaw likes McFadden, but isn’t going to push for Devaney, the scouts and the coaches to go with McFadden over Dorsey.

3. Of course, the Rams could be blown away by a late offer for the No. 2 overall choice… but Devaney and coach Scott Linehan each say the offer would have to be something extraordinary to get them to move off No. 2. Devaney said he’d especially be apprehensive about sliding down as far as No. 10, where New Orleans picks. The Saints have expressed interest in the Rams’ pick. But so far, nothing close has emerged that would give the Rams second thoughts about keeping the pick and opting for Dorsey.

The dream scenario of Atlanta giving the Rams a second-round pick to move up a spot (with the Rams sliding down to No. 3 overall) seems to be a longshot.  But if Atlanta really wants Dorsey (and there are conflicting reports on that), then it makes sense for the Rams to float the notion that Dorsey is their guy, hoping to lure the Falcons into a serious trade discussion.

And the Rams don’t seem to have much interest in moving down as far as No. 10, to the New Orleans’ spot. I asked Devaney about that Thursday and he said it would make him sick to bypass the players the Rams really like to slide all the way down to 10. Read into that as you wish.

 And now we can add a fourth reason to the list of why the Rams may draft Long instead of Dorsey: it could happen if those who want Long at Rams Park ultimately prevail in the debate. And no matter what the decision is, the Rams will present a united front after the decision is made.

If anything else changes, I’ll pass it along….

 –B