SLU soccer stands at No. 35 in the latest NCAA RPI rankings, which puts them on the bubble for an NCAA at-large berth if they don’t win the Atlantic 10 tournament, which starts today in Pittsburgh. What are there chances?

Well, one thing they can’t do is lose today to Fordham, which is 9-7-2 and has an RPI of 87. That would make their position much more precarious. After that, it looks to me like they’re in good shape.

There are 26 at-large berths in the NCAA field, and I figure there are 17 teams ahead of SLU in the RPI that are pretty much locks for at-larges. And in the biggest conferences, if the top team doesn’t win, the next two or three teams are right there in the RPI anyway. There are only a few danger spots: If Akron doesn’t win the Mid-American or if Tulsa doesn’t win Conference USA, their next best teams are deep in the rankings.

So SLU needs to be in the top nine or so of that next group of at-large teams, and again, assuming they don’t lose to Fordham, I think they’re in that bunch. None of the teams right around them in the RPI has a dazzling resume. UMass, which is right above them, is 7-2-1 in its past 10, but its only good win this season is over SLU. (which was in overtime on its home field.) Wisconsin, right behind SLU, is 5-5 in its last 10 and plays Michigan (RPI 6) today. Syracuse, right behind Wisconsin, went 4-5-1 in its final 10 and didn’t make the Big East tournament, so it’s not getting any better. Ohio State, which is two spots ahead of SLU in the RPI, is 0-5-1 on the road, 9-7-2 overall. SLU is, most likely, 1-1-3 against teams in the NCAA tournament. The win was against Denver, which won the Mountain Pacific, the loss to UMass.

If SLU beats Fordham, it would likely get UMass again, and I think a win there would clinch it for them regardless of what happens in the final. A loss there would mean an uncomfortable weekend and leave them more subject to the whims of other postseason tournaments.

Whether they’d get a home game is a different matter. Even if SLU was one of the last teams in, it might well get a home game because they have good facilities and will draw well. And since first-round games tend to be arranged regionally, the Midwest teams that figure to not get first-round byes are:

Drake

Tulsa

Illinois-Chicago (or someone else from the Horizon)

Oakland (or someone else from the Summit)

Ohio State

A MAC team that knocks off Akron

DePaul