The NCAA soccer tournament field of 48 will be released around 5:30 today, and I don’t know that I can say anything to give a Billiken fan solace that the team will definitely be in.

By my reckoning, SLU is right on the bubble. Smack dab right on top. If they get in, they are likely one of the final three or four teams in. If they don’t get, in they are likely one of the last out.

SLU got very few breaks in conference finals on Sunday. In their own conference, the Atlantic 10, Dayton beat UMass on an own goal. Dayton wasn’t getting in otherwise. UMass and SLU went into the postseason neck and neck in the RPI; UMass was 34, SLU 35. If it comes to a head-to-head comparison between the two, UMass beat SLU twice, won the league in the regular season while SLU finished fourth, and has a strong record in the final eight games (which is the span the soccer committee looks at). UMass will get in before SLU.

Jacksonville beat Campbell in the Atlantic Sun final, which kicks 14-6 Campbell, RPI 38, 7-1 in past eight into the at-large pool. UMKC beat Oakland, which throws Oakland, 14-5, RPI 29, into the at-large pool. Penn won the Ivy, which moves Dartmouth (RPI 21) and Harvard (RPI 25) into the at-large pool. They can be thankful that Akron won the MAC in overtime or that Tulsa won C-USA on PKs. Still, three at-large spots disappeared on Sunday, and those three spots gave SLU a cushion.

I’m figuring 18 locks for at-large bids. That leaves eight spots up for grabs. And if you count in order of RPI the teams competing for the remaining at-large spots, you’ll find SLU is eighth. We won’t see the final RPI numbers till later, but it’s possible that some of the schools ahead of SLU, namely William and Mary and Buffalo, will drop after losses to teams with low RPIs in their conference tournaments. Boston College has an RPI of 20, but a record of 8-8-2. (Teams just have to have a .500 record to be eligible.) Syracuse has an RPI of 37 but didn’t even make the Big East tournament. Does an 11-4-5 SLU team  get in ahead of a 9-8-2 Ohio State with a better RPI but which didn’t win a game on the road? (I think yes on that one.) Does the committee take three teams from the Ivy?

Here’s who I see as the teams fighting for those final eight spots: BC, Dartmouth, Harvard, Oakland, William & Mary, Buffalo, Ohio State, SLU, Wisconsin, Syracuse, Campbell, Holy Cross, Brown, Butler, DePaul, Providence. After that, the schools start being from weaker conferences.

According to the selection committee, the selection criteria are:

Won-lost record

Strength of schedule

Eligibility and availability of players

The committee can also look at RPI, head-to-head competition, results vs. common opponents, strength and results against nonconference opponents. And if they need more to look at, then they can consider results against teams already selected and performance in the final eight games.

Right now, I’ll say I think they’ll make it, but I won’t be surprised if they don’t. The fact SLU has only four losses is good, but if they could have turned one of those ties with Creighton, UConn or Northwestern into a win, they’d be a lot better off.