Web Search powered by YAHOO! SEARCH
03.05.2009 9:14 pm

Final SLU-Duquesne thoughts; A-10 home stretch scenarios

St. Louis Post-Dispatch
  • Email this
  • Print this

I keep forgetting to mention that George Clooney has been sited playing hoops at Chaifetz Arena.

After the game Wednesday, someone else and I were wondering when was the last time SLU had shot 57.8 percent in a game and lost. It’s probably been a while because it’s not often SLU has shot 57.8 percent. In my four years on the beat, this was the fifth time:

In 06-07, they shot 60.8 percent against Duquesne and won.

Last year, they shot 57.9 percent against Houston Baptist and won.

Last year, they shot 63.0 percent against La Salle and won.

This year, they shot 63.3 percent against Fordham and won.

SLU shot 65.2 percent in the second half. That’s third behind the second half at Fordham and the second half against Samford.

SLU’s run of six wins in seven games has morphed into losing three times in five games.

The seven-point lead was the biggest lead they’ve had in a game they’ve lost. They have had a few bigger leads this season, blown them and then come back to win.

The attendance at the Palumbo Center was 2,582, which was pretty bad for a team that still had a shot, albeit a long one, of getting a first round bye in the conference tournament. Though in Duquesne’s defense, I should note that it was spring break and that Pitt was playing a home game a few miles away. So you’d have to be a Duquesne diehard to go. And I don’t think there are many Duquesne diehards.

In the Rick Majerus Era, SLU was 30-0 when leading with two minutes to go prior to Wednesday’s loss.

As I write this, Temple is up 13 on St. Joe’s in the second half, which is the better result for the Billikens.

The past two losses have hurt SLU’s NIT or CBI chances, but if they win Saturday and finish fifth in the league, they’ve got a decent shot regardless of their RPI. Let’s face it, if you’ve got SLU, Duquesne and St. Joe’s even in the standings and have to pick one, you’re more likely to pick the one that could draw 7,000 people. But if SLU loses to La Salle and finishes ninth in the league? Probably not.

SLU’s two offensive rebounds were their fewest in at least the past four years. They had five in the first Duquesne game. It was clear that after any shot, SLU’s first priority was to get back on defense. SLU had no second chance points, though I thought they should have gotten credit for some when the alley oop didn’t work and Willie Reed put in the second chance. But apparently the stat crew didn’t rule the first one a shot, so there was no rebound and no second-chance points.

I haven’t done a correlation on this, but SLU scored 30 of its 68 points in the paint and went to the line just 13 times. Usually when you get that many inside, you go to the line more often. Interestingly, the one time SLU got more points in the paint but went to the line fewer was against Rhode Island, a game where Majerus was very unhappy about the officiating.

I may have lost track at the end, but early in the second half, SLU had been called for seven offensive fouls.

Both Duquesne and St. Bonaventure made 25 of 49 shots at the line.

With at least two games to play, Kevin Lisch is 50 points in back of Scott Highmark for fifth on the career scoring list. It would seem unlikely Lisch would average 25, but if SLU can win its first A-10 game, he’d have to average only 16 points. And if SLU wins those two, there’s a better chance of a fourth game, which makes it do-able. Lisch’s 23 points were his most in regulation this season.

Another big game for Tommie Liddell against Duquesne. His assist-turnover ratio, however, was 5-5. I thought he had a blocked shot, but the stat crew didn’t give him one.

Barry Eberhardt’s raw shooting numbers in the past four games: 6-8, 4-4, 2-6, 5-5. Those are the kind of numbers you associate with a big guy dropping in 2-footers.

Paul Eckerle played 18 minutes — he played 25 in the first meeting — but had a missed shot, an assist and a turnover.

Kwamain Mitchell had one of his best shooting nights, making 7 of 10, only two of which were 3-pointers. He drove to the basket a lot and made some tough shots. He had four fouls, and Majerus was very upset with the final one, a blocking call with 3:36 to play. It didn’t send Duquesne to the line, but it did give them a fresh clock. “That fourth foul on Kwamain was as bad a call as I’ve seen,” Majerus said. “That was absolutely no foul at all. That’s a call from their bench. Again, I feel sometimes I hurt the team by not being more vocal with the officials but I think a good official appreciates being left alone. That was your typical home court call, but the problem is, it can’t (overcome) the time of the call in a critical situation.”

Brian Conklin has started 27 of the 29 games in his SLU career. The two he didn’t start were against Duquesne. He played 18 minutes and had no rebounds.

Kyle Cassity started, taking Conklin’s spot. In talking with Majerus after the game, I mentioned that Duquesne got a few baskets off backdoor plays and drives to the baskets. “They beat a couple guys,” he said. “Select guys.” And Cassity was one of those guys. Said Majerus: “Kyle played well offensively, and defensively, hopefully he takes hard learned lessons from this game.”

Brett Thompson got in this game, which was a change from the first Duquesne game, which he watched from the bench. At one point, he spent about 3 minutes at the scorer’s table, waiting to go in to give Reed a breather. But there wasn’t a deadball. It kept on going. Finally, there was a foul and a TV timeout. At that point, apparently the substitution wasn’t needed anymore. Thompson stood on the line for a free throw, then was subbed out before the second shot. Technically, he was never in for a live ball. That was his only appearance in the second half. In his six minutes in the first half, he had two rebounds, an assist and a turnover. Which is a lot for him to cram into that time.

Reed played 14 minutes, made two layins and a free throw, grabbed three rebounds, and turned the ball over twice. SLU again tried to get the ball inside but to little success.

On a previous post, one of my loyal readers openly mocked — mocked, I tell you! — the plus-minus stat, wondering about my obsession with it and pretty much questioning my sanity. While my sanity is open for discussion, I’m not one to look down on plus-minus. A case in point: this game. In a game where Majerus noted that Cassity had a bad game defensively, I will point out that he was a -16. That’s a whopping number in a two-point game. The next closest was Eckerle’s -7, and his number was hurt by offensive-defensive subs late in the game. To be on the court when your team is outscored by 16 points in a 2-point game says you didn’t do very well.

Yes, the stat has its limitations, but all stats need to be taken in context. We can’t just line up numbers. There are times when they need big asterisks. But a lot of times they don’t. The NHL has found the plus-minus stat to be a valid measurement of performance over the years since the Post-Dispatch’s Gary Mueller created it over 30 years ago. (Really, he did. And the league didn’t like it when he started.) The numbers make the most sense when viewed over time, and it’s my fault for not giving season to date numbers. But I think it’s a relevant tool. Is it the be-all, end-all? No. But it’s a valid measuring stick.

Here are the numbers for the Duquesne game:

Mitchell +8

Conklin +4

Thompson +4

Lisch 0

Liddell 0

Eberhardt -1

Reed -2

Eckerle -7

Cassity -16

And St. Joe’s has lost to Temple, creating a four-way tie for sixth in the A-10. After the Xavier-Dayton game, I’ll have another post setting the scene for Saturday.

3 comments

Comments are closed.

Don’t listen to rockchalk — has any Kansas fan every produced anything good? :P — I appreciate your effort and the reports regarding the plus/minus.

— thicks
10:14 pm March 5th, 2009

maybe with the help of the plus/minus stat college basketball can become as popular as the NHL…

— slustudent
1:39 am March 6th, 2009

The plus-minus system seems unimportant, another misleading statistic to favor certain players. Obviously players with more minutes will get the higher statistic than freshman players who come off the bench or get a sporadic start and only play for 15 minutes.

Give me the box score and allow me to determine who made the mistakes, not by some statistic proving that Kwamain Mitchell plays more than Kyle Cassity. Or, have more direct quotes from Coach Majerus. I count TWO quotes from coach. Ask more indepth questions to him AND the players, instead of creating statistics in your spare time to prove SLU should have won every game they have played.

— msumarathoner
2:30 pm March 6th, 2009