One can only hope that the MVP voters, as they correctly did last year, look at all of the numbers. Not just HR/RBI’s.

Also,

Check out over the seminal blog Viva el Birdos, where Larry did a similar breakdown of the NL rankings — only with much more readable charts. Click here — http://www.vivaelbirdos.com./ — for his approach. We both had the same tack to the subject.

Same conclusion, too.

dg
-30-

Well, is anyone surprised?? I have no problem with Howard getting it, but, even using Derrick’s MVPag, Pujols is a runaway.. Oh well.. I think Albert will take the ring over ANOTHER MVP..

Voters don’t give a crap about reality and statistics; they vote based off of how the STORY makes them FEEL.

Coop,

Sure there is a lot of truth to what you say. Writers are rightfully accused of rooting for the best story and sometimes the quickest story. But it’s not the sole truth, otherwise Trevor Hoffman would have won the Cy Young (better story than any other candidate) and Dan Uggla would have won the Jackie Robinson Award (way better story than any of the other candidates — Rule 5! Pokey Reese!).

Don’t forget, reality and statistics are the makings of good stories. You have no story without one, the other or often both.

dg
-30-

This system is awful. Once again Goold fails to provide any real insight into the world of baseball. It is pretty obvious how to account for defense and speed to me- look at the player’s WARP. Advanced statistics like WARP account for those type of things, but for whatever reason the mainstream media will not accept them.

Instead, Goold gives a system that a third grader could have thopught of.

Oops. Missed my mark. I was going for that old newspaper cliche we’re taught in school  – write for a sixth-grade reading level.

I blew it by three grades.

In all seriousness, there’s a fair point made here. For those who don’t speak WARP, VORP, PMLVr, and Win Shares, he’s a quick primer. (Warning: Third Graders may want to turn back, dangerous Sabermetric references ahead.) The VORP mentioned above is Value Over Replacement Players. WARP is the next step, WINS Over Replacement Players. According to Baseball Prospectus’ glossary, WARP is the “number of wins this player contributed, above what a replacement level hitter, field and pitcher would have done.”

That’s WARP-1. WARP-2 adds a wrinkle. WARP-3 equalizes older players into a 162-game schedule.

What does it all mean?

Think of it this way. The aggregate charts above are third-grade level VORP, WARP, whatever. Compiling raw, basic numbers is the start of A.P. Baseball Statistics. Above is the first speed on the statistical blender. It’s a start to smoother, cleaner numbers. WARP is 10 grades ahead. It’s more than a puree of stats — like above — it is a distillation of statistics. Beyond my pencil-and-paper ability.

But I tried to find a simple, accessible way to illustrate things.

Want WARP? Here are the WARP totals: Albert Pujols scores a 11.9. Carlos Beltran rates a 10.4 (career high WARP), Miguel Cabrera has a 10.0, Lance Berkman a 9.0, and Ryan Howard slides in at 8.6. In the other league, Derek Jeter is a 9.8 WARP, Jermaine Dye gets a 8.5 and Travis Hafner goes at 8.0.

It tells a more detailed story than I did — than I could —  above. It’s a fantastic tool and it is part of a new, exciting  paradigm in the game. But it isn’t introductory stuff. That’s what the goal of the above aggregate was. Introductory stuff. Something you can do without plugging into Big Blue. All you need is yesterday’s boxscores.

Like, you know, we did as sixth graders.

dg
-30-

Congratulations to the Cubs on another big free-agent signing, who fits right into their pattern for the last 20 years! A 31-year-old leadoff hitter who’s never had less than 125 strikeouts in a full season (160 in ‘06, 4th in NL), and never had more than 38 walks in a season before ‘06. A defensive liability who’s never played a single inning at center field, and the Cubs plan to put him there. A guy who’s already 31, and whose speed game is likely to start diminishing soon. Another temperamental player who hasn’t shown much commitment to the team concept in the past. Sammy Sosa revisited? Alfonso Soriano! Heck, if Sammy wants to get back into baseball, the Cubs could have signed him for a lot less money, and a much shorter deal.

Cubs ridicule aside, Soriano would look good in anybody’s lineup, even Cardinals white and road gray, though a team with a DH could probably use him more effectively. What’s shocking about the Cubs is not that they are paying him $17 million a year in 2007, but that they’ll pay that much when he’s 39 years old and likely well past his prime. I’d rather give him more money up front when he’s actually worth it. That contract is going to hang over the Cubs like the A-Rod deal. I predict right now that they’ll pay half of Soriano’s salary to play for somebody else by 2012, if not sooner. Strikeouts and bad defense are the secret to the Cubs long run of mediocrity.

You make a good point. I honestly did not think that you had that type of knowledge in you. I remember an article you wrote a while ago at the trade deadline (2 years ago I believe.) You valued each player based on how many RBIs he had at that point. You called Pedro Feliz �practically un-tradable� and Mark Kotsay �at best a fourth OF on a championship� based on their RBI totals. Obviously, Feliz was hitting 3-4-5 spots and had more RBI opportunities than the leadoff hitter Kotsay. The subjectivity of RBIs makes it a fun stat to look at, but a worthless one for player evaluation (remember Ruben Sierra�s 100 RBI 1993 season where he hit .233/.288/.390) Seriously, just that you have heard of WARP and have any understanding of it probably puts you in the top 1% of St. Louis media when it comes to baseball knowledge (how many times have you heard guys like Ramsey, Slaten or Caliborne talk about baseball and just say, �Wow, they are so far away from the reality�?)

Why don�t you incorporate some of that sabermetric knowledge into some of your articles and shape St. Louis� ultra-old school fan base into some new age baseball thinkers. The bunt, stolen base and hit and run have been so over glorified in this town, based primarily I think on the misperception of their value back in the most overly nostalgic period of St. Louis sports, Cardinals baseball in the 80s. I am tired of the same old subjective old school mentality. If you have the knowledge, use it. I am putting my hope in you, Mr. Goold, change this town.

Sorry, one more thing to remember is that Johan Santana led the AL in WARP with 10.6- MVP in my book.