Seametry: Aggregate MVPs
TOWER GROVE — For one of the Sunday Hot Corners late in the season, we attempted to calculate the “V” in MVP and illustrate what hitters had the best claim to the award. One thing was missing from those aggregate rankings.
Defense.
The National League MVP will be awarded tonight, and and a couple of players with St. Louis ties will finish one-two in the voting. Either St. Louis native Ryan Howard will win or St. Louis Cardinal Albert Pujols will. But who should?
To explore the MVP award, statistically, back in August I lined up all of the candidates (including some surprise names) in both leagues and charted where they ranked in eight categories. Not sure why, but I’m a fan of aggregates and I think using the rankings in those eight categories helps define an argument, if not settle it.
I ran the same numbers last night with the 2006 final stats.
Call the calculations the MVPag.
Wait until you see what Pujols scored.
How it works is simple. Consider New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter, a favorite for the American League MVP. In the AL, he ranks second in batting average (.343), 29th in slugging (.483), fourth in on-base percentage (.417), 67th in home runs (14), second in runs scored (114) and 22nd in RBIs (97). Two new-Math categories were also used. Jeter ranked first in Value Over Replacement Player (80.5) and first in Win Shares (33).
Add his rankings together to get his aggregate sum: 128.0.
The lower the sum the better.
The same process with Minnesota first baseman Justin Morneau yields an agg-sum of 73.0. The agg-sums of the 10 AL players I figured last night:
1. David Ortiz, Boston … 57.5
2. Travis Hafner, Cleveland … 59.5
3. Jermaine Dye, White Sox … 62.0
4. Morneau, Minnesota … 73.0
5. Manny Ramirez, Boston … 98.5
6. Vladimir Guerrero, LA Angels … 98.5
7. Alex Rodriguez, NY Yankees … 101.5
8. Jeter, NY Yankees … 128.0
9. Vernon Wells, Toronto … 151.5
10. Joe Mauer, Minnesota … 174
Just look at the rankings, and while it snaps a picture of offensive performance — would anyone doubt that Ortiz and Hafner had two superb offensive years? maybe even most valuable offensive years? — it lacks a defensive quotient. Especially when you’re looking at the AL and you have to weigh DH Hafner against catcher Mauer.
An elementary way to fix that is a plus system.
+ = DH or below average defense
++ = average defense
+++ = exceptional, Gold Glove or demanding defense (catchers would be automatically qualifies; I’d hear an argument for shortstops as well).
Take he agg-sum and divide it by the number of pluses. Sporting a Gold Glove this past season, Jeter’s MVPag drops to 42.7. As a catcher, Mauer’s MVPag moves to 58.0. I’ll show the final rankings for the AL players below, but today is the NL MVP and it’s time to reveal Pujols’ score:
19.5
That’s his agg-sum. That’s before the pluses are used.
That’s, well, incredible.
Pujols ranked in the top 10 in all eight categories. He was first or second in six of the eight and third in another one. He led the NL in VORP (85.4), Win Shares (39), slugging percentage (.671), and on-base percentage (.431). The next closest agg-sum that I could find in either league was Howard’s 38.0. And Houston first baseman/outfielder Lance Berkman’s agg-sum of 51.5 comes next closest to Pujols’ and Howard’s.
The MVPag confirms what many believe: Pujols, on the heels of what was arguably a career year, should be the runaway NL MVP. How the agg-sums and MVPag breakdown for seven NL MVP candidates:
1. Pujols, STL … agg-sum: 19.5; MVPag: 6.5
2. Howard, PHI … agg-sum: 38.0; MVPag: 19.0
3. Berkman, HOU … agg-sum: 51.5; MVPag: 25.8
4. Beltran, NYM … agg-sum: 88.5; MVPag: 29.5
5. Cabrera, FLA … agg-sum: 63.5; MVPag: 31.8
6. Reyes, NYM … agg-sum: 196.0; MVPag: 65.3
7. Soriano, CHI … agg-sum: 159.5; MVPag: 79.8
To be honest, the rankings lineup with how I would vote the top five of the NL MVP, with the possible exception being Jose Reyes, whose stolen bases and speed are not included here. Does that mean this exercise told me nothing, or helped confirm my gut vote? Not sure. But it does discern where a player ranks in regards to his peers, his contemporaries. And when it comes to hitters it helps measure just who, by way of comparison, was most valuable to the team.
The hole is the subjectivity of the defensive plus.
When I ran the numbers in August for the AL, Hafner had the lowest agg-sum and, like Pujols’ final figure, it was so low that any defensive adjustment was only going to move one AL player to a lower total than Hafner’s. The AL race is a more compelling one than the NL because there is not a clear-cut favorite, no one player who dominated all of the numbers. You have to pick a performance and dub it “most valuable”. Where the MVPag for the NL mirrored most voters’ instincts, the MVPag ranking for the AL may assist in revealing the MVP.
The MVPag for the 10 players mentioned above:
1. Dye … 31.0
2. Morneau … 36.5
3. Jeter … 42.7
4. Guerrero … 49.3
5. Wells … 50.5
6. A Rodriguez … 50.8
7. Ortiz … 57.5
8. Mauer … 58.0
9. Hafner … 59.5
10. Ramirez … 98.5
Disappointed that Mauer doesn’t rate higher because these rankings, otherwise, look like a sturdy ballot. Sure it’s an oversimplified way to pool and then separate the statistics and the defensive division is a tad clunky. But it’s a tool. It’s a start.
Discuss.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
I agree that in that situation, nothing is more valuable than a successful bunt. How often does that situation come about- not all that often, maybe a couple of times a season, but having a good bunt will win the game, no question.
My main point on productive outs is that they are not very predictable. Look at Edmonds and Pujols; 150 Ks to 50, yet Edmonds had more productive outs in less PO opps. If something like that happens; I’ll take high K like Adam Dunn over high contact guys like Dave Roberts. That probably sounds obvious to you to take Dunn over Roberts, but many people have argued on Roberts side against me, merely because of the Ks that Dunn puts up and the myth that high Ks lead to signifigantly less productive outs
That is part of the reason why I don’t agree with the Pujols-over-Howard School’s platform that Howard struck out way more than Pujols and therefore Pujols deserves the MVP. Pujols’ strikeout total was remarkable and if it were a vote for who is the best hitter, Pujols would win. But the vote was most valuable, and there are better numbers to hang that definition on. (Like, oh, RISP, perhaps …) But mingled in with gobs of strikeouts Howard hit 58 home runs and hit for a high average and walked a 100 times. Time to get over the stigma of strikeouts and accept an era that has three-true-outcome hitters.
That said, I do like a guy who puts the ball in play when appropriate as opposed to one Hall of Fame-bound DH I can think of who once seemed happier to take a walk than bring the run in from third base with an out.
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http://stl.sabr.org/fungoes/
This blog has 2 very good entries on the subject. Win shares and Win Probability Added are two of the statistics that were sited here.
From my point of view
*Why is the fact that the Phillies didn’t make the play-offs not strongly considered?
* Pujols had less RBI…but played somewhere near 15 games less…had fewer oppotunities with RISP…but converted his opportunites at a much higher percentage than did Howard.
* Pujols # of game winning hits dwarfed Howard’s (see also WPA)
* His defense was worth 30 runs this year….that’s off the charts! Meanwhile Howard’s total actually COST the Phillies 20 runs…. (VEB)
Okay, Howard had a better 2nd hald, more Home Runs, and more RBI’s….I guess if you’re going to give the MVP to the person with the most home-runs….oh wait, what about Sosa, McGwire? Didn’t Sosa get the MVP because the Cubs, and not the Cards, made the play-offs??
Coop,
Fungoes is an excellent site to visit and obviously one to keep bookmarked with the SABR convention coming to St. Louis in 2007. (So is the APSE convention, come to think of it.) And I’m not just saying that because they once called me “insightful” because the Web site also once needled me for writing about a starting pitcher’s wins.
As with Viva, I am jealous of Fungoes charts.
Please, Coop, if could, explain how Howard’s defense cost the Phillies 20 runs. Seems like there’s more to that number than just runs that scored after he committed or because he committed an error.
dg
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From this website’s AP story on the AL MVP award:
Earning just $385,000 in his third season as a regular, Morneau proved a bargain. Philadelphia’s Ryan Howard, voted NL MVP on Monday, made $355,000.
So this year’s MVPs earned a combined $740,000. Brandon Webb made 2.5 million this year. What is that telling us in an off-season when free-agent salaries are skyrocketing?
Derrick,
Congrats on the big postings. You’re hitting your blog stride in the hot-stove season!
Given baseball’s confusing roster rules, especially in the off-season, what is the significance of placing certain minor-leaguers on the 40-man roster? I’m only asking because I saw that you wrote the story on the Bigbie and Cali releases. Are the careers of Bigbie and Spivey done?
Fuhrig,
As for your first question (25), it reveals the value of player development and the quality of young players storming the majors. Some teams have seen the future and it comes from within their own organization, not from the outside — where, as we are seeing, supply is low, demand is high and prices are lunar.
As to your second question (26), the value is protect Rule 5 eligible players from the Rule 5 draft, like Cardinals’ prospect Dennis Dove, for example. Larry Bigbie and Carmen Cali aren’t done, they are just free to pursue new deals with other teams — as major- or minor-league free agents. It unburdens Bigbie of the $900,000 contract he carried around, too. Now he’s a free agent and his price is set by negotiations, not by CBA.
dg
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