TOWER GROVE — For one of the Sunday Hot Corners late in the season, we attempted to calculate the “V” in MVP and illustrate what hitters had the best claim to the award. One thing was missing from those aggregate rankings.

Defense.

The National League MVP will be awarded tonight, and and a couple of players with St. Louis ties will finish one-two in the voting. Either St. Louis native Ryan Howard will win or St. Louis Cardinal Albert Pujols will. But who should?

To explore the MVP award, statistically,  back in  August I lined up all of the candidates (including some surprise names)  in both leagues and charted where they ranked in eight categories.  Not sure why,  but I’m a fan of aggregates and I think  using the rankings in those eight  categories helps define an argument, if not settle it.

I ran the same numbers last night with the 2006 final stats.

Call the calculations the MVPag.

Wait until you see what Pujols scored.

How it works is simple. Consider New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter, a favorite for the American League MVP. In the AL, he ranks second in batting average (.343), 29th in slugging (.483), fourth in on-base percentage (.417), 67th in home runs (14), second in runs scored (114) and 22nd in RBIs (97). Two new-Math categories were also used. Jeter ranked first in Value Over Replacement Player (80.5) and first in Win Shares (33).

Add his rankings together to get his aggregate sum: 128.0.

The lower the sum the better.

The same process with Minnesota first baseman Justin Morneau yields an agg-sum of 73.0. The agg-sums of the 10 AL players I figured last night:

1. David Ortiz, Boston … 57.5

2. Travis Hafner, Cleveland … 59.5

3. Jermaine Dye, White Sox … 62.0

4. Morneau, Minnesota … 73.0

5. Manny Ramirez, Boston … 98.5

6. Vladimir Guerrero, LA Angels … 98.5

7. Alex Rodriguez, NY Yankees … 101.5

8. Jeter, NY Yankees … 128.0

9. Vernon Wells, Toronto … 151.5

10. Joe Mauer, Minnesota … 174

Just look at the rankings, and while it snaps a picture of offensive performance — would anyone doubt that Ortiz and Hafner had two superb offensive years? maybe even most valuable offensive years? — it lacks a defensive quotient. Especially when you’re looking at the AL and you have to weigh DH Hafner against catcher Mauer.

An elementary way to fix that is a plus system.

+ = DH or below average defense

++ = average defense

+++ = exceptional, Gold Glove or demanding defense (catchers would be automatically qualifies; I’d hear an argument for shortstops as well).

Take he agg-sum and divide it by the number of pluses. Sporting a Gold Glove this past season, Jeter’s MVPag drops to 42.7. As a catcher, Mauer’s MVPag moves to 58.0. I’ll show the final rankings for the AL players below, but today is the NL MVP and it’s time to reveal Pujols’ score:

19.5

That’s his agg-sum. That’s before the pluses are used.

That’s, well,  incredible.

Pujols ranked in the top 10 in all eight categories. He was first or second in six of the eight and third in another one. He led the NL in VORP (85.4), Win Shares (39), slugging percentage (.671), and on-base percentage (.431). The next closest agg-sum that I could find in either league was Howard’s 38.0. And Houston first baseman/outfielder Lance Berkman’s agg-sum of 51.5 comes next closest to  Pujols’ and Howard’s.  

The MVPag confirms what many believe: Pujols, on the heels of what was arguably a career year, should be the runaway NL MVP. How the agg-sums and MVPag breakdown for seven NL MVP candidates:

1. Pujols,  STL … agg-sum: 19.5; MVPag: 6.5

2. Howard,  PHI  … agg-sum: 38.0; MVPag: 19.0

3. Berkman, HOU … agg-sum: 51.5; MVPag: 25.8

4. Beltran, NYM … agg-sum: 88.5; MVPag: 29.5

5. Cabrera, FLA … agg-sum: 63.5; MVPag: 31.8

6. Reyes, NYM … agg-sum: 196.0; MVPag: 65.3

7. Soriano,  CHI … agg-sum: 159.5; MVPag: 79.8

To be honest, the rankings lineup with how I would  vote the top five of the NL MVP, with the possible exception being Jose  Reyes, whose stolen bases and speed are not  included here.  Does that mean this exercise told me nothing, or  helped confirm my gut vote?  Not sure. But  it does  discern where a player ranks in regards to his peers, his contemporaries. And when it comes to hitters it helps measure just who, by way of comparison, was most valuable to the team.

The hole is the subjectivity of the defensive plus.

When I  ran the numbers in August for the AL, Hafner had the lowest agg-sum and, like Pujols’ final figure, it was so low that any defensive  adjustment  was only going to move one AL player to a lower total than Hafner’s. The AL race is a more compelling one than the NL because there is not a clear-cut favorite, no one player who dominated all of the numbers. You have to pick a performance and dub it “most valuable”. Where the MVPag for the NL  mirrored most  voters’ instincts, the MVPag ranking for the  AL may  assist in revealing the  MVP.

The  MVPag for the 10 players mentioned above:

1. Dye … 31.0

2. Morneau … 36.5

3. Jeter … 42.7

4. Guerrero … 49.3

5. Wells … 50.5

6. A Rodriguez … 50.8

7. Ortiz … 57.5

8. Mauer … 58.0

9. Hafner … 59.5

10. Ramirez … 98.5

Disappointed that Mauer doesn’t rate higher because these rankings, otherwise, look like a  sturdy ballot.  Sure it’s an oversimplified way to  pool and  then separate the statistics and the defensive division is a tad clunky. But it’s a  tool. It’s a start.

Discuss.

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