TOWER GROVE — While making phone calls today, tracking news, doing interviews, and working on a story for Sunday’s paper, I have the rebroadcast of Game 7 of the NL Championship Series going in the background. Eager to hear how Endy Chavez’s catch was called and to hear — once again — the last at-bat of the game.
By now we all have that at-bat memorized, knowing as we know our phone number the sequence of pitches Adam Wainwright threw to Carlos Beltran.
First pitch changeup. Strike looking.
Second pitch curve. Fouled off.
Third pitch curve. Watched for the pennant-winning strikeout.
The whole at-bat can be re-viewed digitally on MLB.com, and it is the technology that drives the “enhanced gameday” application that will help us all better understand what made that last pitch so darn effective. To provide the information on pitches for “enhanced gameday” three cameras are installed at the ballpark and are used to triangulate pitches — measuring location of the pitcher’s hand, the ball’s initial speed, its tilt, its break, its arrival velocity, its drop, and offering a view of type, too.
It’s what Isaac Newton would do to ESPN’s K-zone.
During the World Series, a Cardinals official told me those three cameras are being installed at ballparks around the majors. The cameras, he said, will provide more data on breaking pitches than ever available before.
“It’s like a radar gun for curve balls,” he said.
The pure speed of a fastball is enough to attract attention to a prospect, but grading a curve ball with the same raw measurements has been difficult or superficial. Watching the bend of the batter’s knees or the movement of the catcher’s mitt gives you as much information about why a curve is effective as does information like its speed, the measurement on the grade of its break, et cetera.
These cameras will offer a cornucopia of additional info by tracking hundreds and hundreds of pitches through a season.
This goes well beyond the information provided by the strikezone grids you see in scouting reports. That charts the result at the destination. These cameras help track the route taken and can be used to connect the result to that route. Baseball Prospectus made the point that the techonology could be reversed to chart the exit velocity of the ball off the bat and provide the next evolutionary leap for defensive statistics.
Fascinating.
Numbers will be available for how and when an effective curve “bites”. How the pitch(es) before it helped set up an eye level that is then exploited by the drop of a curveball. A way to project the effectiveness of a curve is one of the goals, meaning a team can trot some prospects through the big league ballpark, shoot some pictures of their breaking pitch and have a feel — really more of a theory — on which prospects have curves that rate.
It’s not a leap to expect the more that is understood about curves and their effectiveness the more links can be drawn between effective and healthy mechanics and the results. That could save some pitchers’ arms — some young pitchers’ arms.
The Cardinals have had a recent run of some of the best curves in the game, from Matt Morris to Chris Carpenter to Adam Wainwright. Not to mention relievers Tyler Johnson and Josh Kinney, whose breaking pitchers are lauded as among the best for their roles. We can see what makes them work, but not necessarily understand what makes them work. These cameras may help.
Consider some of the info already available at your local bookstore.
The latest edition of Bill James Handbook is out — Ryan Howard is on the cover — and in its pitching leaders section there is a trove of info about the Cardinals’ pitching staff. For example, Morris and Carpenter threw the highest percentage of curveballs in the National League, and Morris’ 28.6 percent was the highest in the majors, but a safe margin.
Carpenter threw 21.7 percent curves.
Some other tidbits from the Handbook to note (the last one we all should pocket and take to spring training):
… Carpenter had the fifth-lowest percentage of fastballs in the NL, throwing just 47.3 percent fastballs. Milwaukee’s Doug Davis had the lower percent (41.6).
… Three of the top seven relievers with the lowest opponent batting average vs. righthanded batters (min. 50 AB) are now Cardinals: Wainwright (.182), Jason Isringhausen (.187) and Russ Springer (.187). With Alfonso Soriano joining the division, Carlos Lee returning and Derrek Lee back from injury, that’s a stat of strength if repeated.
… James offers up a statistic labeled BPS, which is batting average plus slugging, a way to measure average and ”damage” on pitches put in play. It’s a way to understand the effectiveness of a pitcher’s curve through result — not through the ingredients of the curve — and it shows why Carpenter’s curve is considered among the best. Hitters’ BPS against Carpenter’s curve, according to the Handbook, was .504, eighth lowest in the league. Morris’ was .489.
… The leader (min. 100 batters faced) was Chicago’s Sean Marshall with .330.
… Keeping the BPS stat in mind, the pitcher with the best success with his changeup was a Cardinal starter. However, he was not the pitcher I’m listening to throw Game 7 right now. He was the Cardinal who starter Game 1. With a minimum of 100 batters faced, rookie Anthony Reyes has the best success with his changeup in the NL, and the third-lowest in the majors, according to James’ Handbook. The No. 1 changeup in baseball, no surprise, belongs to Johan Santana, whose opponents’ BPS off the changeup is .352. Reyes’ opponent BPS was .415. The next closest in the NL was Philly lefty Cole Hamels’ .451 and then the list spikes to more tha .500.
I wonder what the three cameras will tell us about a changeup. We’ll learn about the late action on pitcher’s cutter. We’ll find out just how much bite Brandon Webb’s sinker has and how he can throw a variety of sinkers to throw off hitters with speed and break. We’ll have gobs of numbers to discuss a curve, as if we pureed Robert K. Adair’s “The Physics of Baseball” with Baseball Prospectus and Christy Mathewson’s “Pitching in a Pinch”.
Adair describes a curve thusly: “This ball is throw with an initial velocity of 70 mph … to cross the plate 0.6 seconds later at a speed of about 61 mph. … Halfway from pitcher to the plate, the ball has moved about 3.4 inches from the original line of flight … From the prespective of the batter — or pitcher — the ball that started toward the inside corner has ‘curved’ 14.4 inches to pass over the outside corner.” Adair goes on to describe the how.
These new cameras may provide the why.
Why Wainwright’s curve was so effective that Beltran stood there and took it for strike 3 with the bases loaded and a ticket to the World Series in the balance.
Just heard the call of Chavez’s catch. That happened right underneath my seat out there in left field’s press box. Just a few innings earlier, Chavez had missed catching a foul flyball down the line and was none too pleased. Because sometimes we root for the story, I want to believe that added a few inches to his vertical. It was an amazing catch.
*** RIFFS ***
– Dennis Martinez was hired to be the Cardinals’ pitching coach at the new Gulf Coast League, but he’ll also be around spring training, offering advice and working with pitchers at every level.
– Since his name has been in the news recently, thought this was worth pointing out as well: From the James’ Handbook, Brad Penny had the highest average mph on his fastball this season (93.9) and he threw the most pitches above 95 mph of any pitcher (817). Obviously, he had among the highest percentage of fastballs thrown (72.6 percent of his pitches), but he also ranked highly in percentage of curves (19.0 percent).
– A law with impact on international baseball is about to reach the President’s desk, according to Baseball America. This will open the way to bringing more players to the Cardinals’ new Gulf Coast team.
– Ending his “as so often happens” moment, Chavez just popped up to end the sixth inning of Game 7. Onto the seventh and knuckle-dragging submariner Chad Bradford. Wonder what these cameras will tell us about his pitches.
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