The Benefit of Being Average
SOUTH GRAND - The rising price of baseball players has made Moneyball more relevant than ever. Not the statistical side of the book that got so much attention, but the market theory portion of the book - the part where the Oakland A’s identified a corner of the baseball world that was undervalued and exploited it.
We may have found this year’s:
Average.
Rifle through the contracts being offered starting pitchers and you see Gil Meche and Adam Eaton being paid on potential. Whereas a guy like Jeff Suppan – a proven, dependable, innings-eater who for all intents and purposes is the average proven, dependable, innings-eating pitcher – hasn’t hit jackpot yet. It could be argued that Jason Marquis was paid on potential, but that deal doesn’t look so bad when you peel the onion to see Marquis’ ability to handle a workload, his rubber arm and his health.
Those qualities appear undervalued.
Playing the averages is an avenue to win.
In the Nov. 19 edition of The New York Times, Alan Schwarz’s article titled “When Being Medium is No Mean Feat” discussed the growing importance of the average player in the weekly piece, “Keeping Score”. The article explored just who was the most average player in baseball (Orlando Hudson, it concluded) and who was the most average player at each position.
The accompanying lineup was remarkably ⦠well, competitive.
In crunching the numbers, Schwarz determined that the “most un-average” players in the majors were obvious - Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols. Their numbers skewed far to the extreme of the bell curve. He also identified the most average pitchers:
Colorado’s Jeff Francis (13-11, 4.16)
Milwaukee’s Dave Bush (12-10, 4.25)
When the Brewers acquired Bush last offseason, I thought it was the move that would turn Milwaukee’s pitching staff into one of the most consistent and, therefore, winning in the division. Why? Because Bush’s 5-11 record in Toronto the season before was a red herring. Here was a righthander who had a competitive ERA and was exceptionally average enough to improve a rotation by being its No. 3 or lower starter. He gave them another predictable starter, treasured rotation depth. Not unlike when the Cardinals signed Suppan in 2003.
I hesitate to write this because of how it will be read, but the pursuit-of-average approach sounds like a way to win at Fantasy Baseball. Get some heavy-hitters and outfit them with players who produce consistently, reliably average. But it’s a theory that has roots in real baseball with real salaries.
Average is the new good.
So how average have the Cardinals been?
Schwarz’s article ran with a chart comparing MLB averages to the player he found to be closest to those averages. Ever resourceful Jim Henzler, of STATS LLC, provided me with the Cardinals team stats for each position and blending those two sources it’s possible to see how close to average the production was for the Cardinals at each position. It’s a bit of an apples-oranges comparison because it pits a single player against a composite position, but it’s meant to serve as an illustration, not the entire argument.
Plus, Henzler also gives the league rankings for the Cardinals’ position production and those are striking to see.
The data and the takes:
(Note: all averages are BA/OBP/SLG; parentheses are MLB rank. Or, skip to the bottom for some notes.)
CATCHER
MLB average: .287/.345/.434 ⦠13 HR ⦠65 RBI
A.J. Pierzynski, CWS: .295/.333/.457 ⦠16 HR ⦠64 RBI
Cardinals pos.: .221 (30)/.328 (29) ⦠10 HR (25t) ⦠71 RBI (19t)
Below average. Yadier Molina had a tough regular season and sank the Cardinals ranking to last in the league in average. We all knew that. What we don’t know is how the Cardinals will let that steer their upcoming decisions. Molina missed being arbitration eligible by a few days, so the Cardinals have another year to gauge his offense before talking to him about a long-term deal to avoid arbitration next winter. The RBIs being better than average is a surprise and a product of the lineup and Molina’s contact bat.
FIRST BASE
MLB average: .290/.371/.434 ⦠26 HR ⦠89 RBI
Lyle Overbay, TOR: .312/.372/.508 ⦠22 HR ⦠92 RBI
Cardinals pos.: .325 (3)/.641 (2) ⦠50 HR (2) ⦠151 RBI (1)
As above average as you can get. Even trumped Howard in RBIs. “Nuff said.
SECOND BASE
MLB average: .282/.341/.422 ⦠12 HR ⦠60 RBI
Tony Graffanino, KC/MIL: .274/.345/.406 ⦠7 HR ⦠59 RBI
Cardinals pos.: .263 (24)/.375 (25) ⦠10 HR (23t) ⦠59 RBI (26)
Below average. It’s interesting to note that Graffanino’s name has come up so, so often in rumors regarding the Cardinals, whether it was at the trade deadline or, most recently, as a free agent. The Cardinals didn’t get much production from this position. Their musical-chair approach to second base caught up with them, and while Aaron Miles did a sturdy job it was a position that needed to be addressed. Enter Adam Kennedy. He is coming off a season of .273/.334/.384, four home runs and 55 RBI. Could be the coffee talking but something tells me with a good batting-average start to the season Kennedy could get an Eckstein-like invitation and find himself as an All-Star for the first time.
THIRD BASE
MLB average: .284/.356/.479 ⦠22 HR .. 86 RBI
Mike Lowell, BOS: .284/.339/.475 ⦠20 HR ⦠80 RBI
Cardinals pos.: .305 (5)/.554 (2) ⦠31 HR (4) ⦠122 RBI (2t)
Well above average. Time to give credit where credit is due and where maybe a lot of people didn’t see it. Scott Rolen, with cameo appearances by Scott Spiezio, gave the Cardinals some of the best production at this corner in the league, and the best production from the corner infielders combined in baseball. One of the reasons the Cardinals could buy time for the corner outfielders to catch up was because of the production at the corners. Third base is the new vogue position — David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman, Garrett Atkins, Aramis Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera and onward — and other teams are catching up, but one look at these numbers reveals a lot about how the Cardinals have built their team.
SHORTSTOP
MLB average: .279/.336/.421 ⦠12 HR ⦠62 RBI
Orlando Cabrera, LAA: .282/.335/.404 ⦠9 HR ⦠72 RBI
Cardinals pos.: .290 (8)/.361 (25) ⦠5 HR (27) ⦠37 RBI (30)
Umm ⦠Those RBI totals are glaring. Sure it’s the leadoff position. Sure it’s the national league. Sure it’s related to that catcher’s batting average discussed above. But, 37. A year ago, Eckstein had 61 RBIs off 185 hits. His total dipped to a career-low 23 RBIs this season, eight fewer than he had in three fewer games in 2003. An “MLB average” season would near a career-high for Eckstein, so let’s not belabor the ranking, but 37 from one position, even this position, is too low.
LEFT FIELD
MLB average: .285/.359/.476 ⦠20 HR ⦠77 RBI
Emil Brown, KC: .287/.358/.457 ⦠15 HR ⦠81 RBI
Cardinals pos.: .273 (20)/.434 (21) ⦠20 HR (15t) ⦠60 RBI (28)
Close to average. Hard to believe that the position that looked so vacant in the first month of the season - Skip Schumaker had the spot’s only home run for the longest time, remember? - turned out OK for the Cardinals. Two words: Chris Duncan. His power from the spot put the Cardinals smack in the middle of the league. Fine enough with the production from other spots. Again, though, the RBI total, is low. Batting second doesn’t help for some of the same reasons mentioned with Eckstein. But it does hint at something we all discussed in spring training - the isolation of run producers in this lineup and the burden placed on the middle of the order. Can’t say this year looks any different, save for Duncan getting more at-bats.
CENTER FIELD
MLB average: .272/.342/.441 ⦠16 HR ⦠61 RBI
Curtis Granderson, DET: .260/.335/.438 ⦠19 HR ⦠68 RBI
Cardinals pos.: .252 (17)/.469 (12) ⦠28 HR (7t) ⦠92 RBI (18)
Above average. No other position illustrates Schwarz’s point better than center field. Look at the price teams have had to pay for average. While Gary Matthews Jr. got a heckuva a deal following his career season, at least it doesn’t seem out of touch like some of these pitching contracts. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are paying a below-average price for a player who can still produce above-average numbers. When compared to the two positions just discussed, that RBI total should leap off this blog. The on-base percentage shatters that of the “MLB average” center fielder and the power numbers put the Cardinals in the top fourth of the position. With a repaired shoulder and no lingering PCS, Jim Edmonds will always exceed average.
RIGHT FIELD
MLB average: .285/.357/.465 ⦠19 HR ⦠80 RBI
Casey Blake, CLE: .282/.356/.479 ⦠19 HR ⦠68 RBI
Cardinals pos.: .272 (17)/.469 (12) ⦠28 HR (7t) ⦠92 RBI (18)
Above average as a group. Plum average as a player. OK. OK. Say it with me, Juan Encarnacion’s three-year, $15-million contract doesn’t seem so off now. If anything it’s prescient. The Cardinals have explored trading Encarnacion and just when you wonder why another team would consider acquiring the right fielder with an achy wrist you see that price tags on some of these outfielders and it’s clear. Encarnacion is darn near average and now at a reasonable price, too. He’s a commodity and one the Cardinals have at good value. Kudos to the Cardinals for reading that market. Encarnacion hit .278/.317/.443 with 19 home runs and 79 RBI. (The RBI was his the third-highest total of his career, even after his slow start.) It could be argued, he’s more average than Casey Blake. Throw in some innings in center field and Encarnacion is an example of a good buy in this market.
***RIFFS***
– From past non-tender classes, the Cardinals have signed their last two postseason MVPs, NLCS MVP Suppan and World Series MVP Eckstein. Just an FYI.
– Spoke to the agent for Tomo Ohka this morning and seven teams are interested in the righthanded pitcher. Ohka is on a normal throwing program this offseason and the hamstring injury that kept him from the mound late in the season has healed, his agent said.
– The Cardinals have acquired the following players for the minor leagues: 1B Tagg Bozied, C Ryan Christiansen, IF Edgar Gonzalez (pure hitter). RHP Matt Hirsh (brother of the Jason Hirsh recently traded), OF Ryan Ludwick, RHP Alex Pena. RHP Mike Smith (not the Sports Webmaster, who gave me my start at The Post-Dispatch long ago as a “special to…”; at least I don’t think it’s him). C Eli Marrero (he’ll come to camp as a catcher), OF Miguel Negron. RHP Kelvin Jimenez, C Danilo Sanchez, C Chris Grossman, and OF Ian Church.
– The Cardinals Rule 5 picks in the minor-league portion of the draft were: C Omar Falcon, SS Jose Contreras.
(Come back later today as I’ll attach links to each player’s statistics after posting this file. Or check MiLB.com.)
– A couple things were cut from later editions of today’s paper. First, Jayson Werth is the grandson of former Cardinals’ shortstop Dick “Ducky” Schofield. Hal Pilger of The State Journal-Register in Springfield, Ill., recently wrote about Werth, reporting that the free agent outfielder recently returned from the Mayo Clinic optimistic and eager to “get back to my 2004 form.”
– Second, each season Aaron Miles returns to his hometown of Antioch, Calif., with some souvenirs from the previous summer. He auctions of the items for the benefit of the high school football team and an advanced choir at the school. This year the loot he brought back at a championship gleam. “They did a lot better,” he said Tuesday. “Broke some records there.”
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
While reading updates on the hot stove I have heard no mention of where Wainwright would be pitching for the cards next year. As great as he pitched in the closers role late last year I would rather see him in the rotation. However if he is slated to be in the bullpen isn’t time to take Izzy out of the closers role until he prove that he still has closer stuff.
Tommy,
Well, it’s funny you should ask. Timely, even. Writing about that very subject right now from the depths of Busch Stadium …
dg
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Some skewed numbers to be sure. Spezio’s “cameo” appearances at the hot corner resulted in 9HR & 27RBI in less than 100 AB’s. Aside from some very excellent numbers put up by a utility player, the Cardinals “well above average” numbers from the 3rd base position would look decidedly much more average.
Flyover… Rolen still posted an OPS+ (adjusted for league average) of 127, or 27% above league average. That number was right in line with his career average of 129. Even if you subtract Speizio’s impressive numbers, Rolen was still one of the best 3rd baseman in the league. Slightly better than Aramis Ramirez. Atkins is by far the most underrated.
Derrick:
Great article. First, I’m assuming that you’re familiar (at least somewhat) with Baseball-Reference.com and OPS+ and era+. If you’re not, then I would recommend taking a look at them. They’re wonderful quick and dirty stats that can provide a first glance portrait of a player’s value in relation to the rest of the leauge.
Ohka has an era+ of 111 for his career. Suppan? 101 (100, 120, 107 with the Cardinals). Pavano sits at an even 100, with highs of 151 and 137. Batista was (surprisingly) at a 103. Weaver? 96.
I think it’s stats like this that make the Cardinals hard stance with Suppan a little easier to swallow. Sure, Supp provides consistency, stamina, and health, but he’s not worth $6 million per year more than Ohka. Weaver, despite claims of his untapped potential, has only been at or over league average 4 times.
Ohka is clearly the most fascinating arm available. His career era+ is higher than Schmidt’s (110). Yet, he’s looking for a contract comparable to Kip Wells.
Derrick:
(Forgot to ask this.)
Are the Cards looking at bringing Werth in for a look? What about Preston Wilson? A young righthanded OF’er with some pop would look pretty nice, considering Edmonds’ injury history (and splits) and Duncan’s career lefty/righty splits.
Folks,
I’m glad Flyover did the breakdown and mentioned Spiezio’s contribution to the third base production. The more information the better, which is why CardsnOK does well to further illuminate the topic. Well done. I have to admit that I found the third-base rankings higher than I expected, what with the years had by David Wright, Miguel Cabrera, Zimmerman, Ramirez, etc. But it only serves to underscore what Rolen was able to do — tired, healing shoulder and all.
Spoke with Ohka’s agent today. Seven teams interested. He declined to name the seven teams. I was told later that the Cardinals are not believed to be one right now.
The Cardinals are interested in Werth, yes. Checking out his recovery from serious injury right now. Haven’t heard a definitive answer on Preston Wilson. There is undoubtedly a team out there offering him a bigger role than what the Cardinals can. So Taguchi is under contract and Skip Schumaker is on the verge of the majors as backup center fielders.
dg
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I know that Jason Marquiz did not pitch well but the number of games that he did win certainly were a significant part of the season’s total wins. Why can not someone at least recognize this in the big pcture of thngs?
I am happy that he has moved on and wish him only the best. It is the best for everyone. It will not surprise me if when he pitches against us in 2007 that he will have more victories than losses. The Cubs nation will appreciate this even if his totals for 2007 are similar to those of 2006.
As a Cardinal nation I always thought that we had a higher professional ethic in how we treated others. I am not heaing this now in this situation, at least not from most of those who report on the Cardinals. Sure things did not work out. Down the road in years to come we may want to establish a new contract with him. Who knows? What goes around comes around.
Go Cards!!!
Thursday’s story:
At a charity function with lefty Barry Zito on Monday night, La Russa asked the free agent pitcher for his autograph. The manager then revealed that the paper read, “I agree to pitch for the St. Louis Cardinals.”
“Ignorance is not an excuse in the eye of the law,” La Russa said Wednesday at Busch Stadium. “I think we got him for somewhere near the minimum.
Doesn’t TLR have a law degree? That’s where the best part of the joke would have been.
I’m encouraged that the plans for wainwright is to be a starter, but it still appears he is the back up closer. I would hate to get into July , have Izzy go down, and Wainwright is taken out of the rotation. If he is as good as Walt seems to think, it just seems a waste to have him as a closer long term.
Francis point is well-taken because every win the Cardinals had were important to winning the division, even those by, say, Sidney Ponson. Two things that Jason Marquis did and Jeff Suppan did that may not show up in the retellings of the great surprise of 2006 were these: Marquis took several for the team by protecting the bullpen and seeing his ERA soar, thus saving the relievers for the days to come, and beyond Suppan’s second-half ERA was the stability he provided a rotation that could have crumbled in August and September. Suppan’s starts bought time for Weaver to get his ship straight with the bullpen at his back.
Yes La Russa does have a law degree. If I remember correctly, each spring training or so he gets his Florida Bar renewed. He mentioned that at the press conference, but — to be candid — I wanted to get through the anecdote and get to the news without bogging down the lede with info like law degree and “Strikeout for the Troops” dinner and Nick Swisher signing the same card as what Tony called “a witness”.
As Lawless implies and so, so many have said. Better to have one of your best arms throw 180-plus innings than 70 innings. To which, at least one Cardinals official has countered: It’s even better to have one of your best arms throw the 70 most important innings — the ones that assure victory.
It’s a great debate to keep us talking through the winter.
dg
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