TOWER GROVE — Seeing that it’s Groundhog Day I was tempted just to re-paste yesterday’s post in today’s spot,  iron out a few of the typos, take the extra time to learn ice-sculpting and call it a weekend. But that would be cheating and it wouldn’t be as funny in practice as it seems in theory.

So, it’s time for the annual tour of the new baseball projection books hitting shelves.

What better day for predictions than Punxsutawney’s day.

That furry little meteorologist popped his head out of his Gobbler’s Knob home this morning and did not see his shadow. His translators quickly announced we should “expect an early spring.” Tell us something we don’t know, Phil. As any Cardinals fan and Cardinals beat reporter can tell you, spring is coming really early this season — a Feb. 14 report day for  pitchers and catchers.

Early spring we know.  Midsummer, late fall, we don’t.

Expanded my usual stack of preseason books by a few this season as I (finally!) landed a copy of The Fielding Bible – cannot wait to read the essay comparing Derek Jeter to the National League’s best, yet still not Golden shortstop, Adam Everett – and ordered the Graphical Player 2007  (GP). Those two have been added to the usual group that includes Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster (BF) and The Bill James Handbook  (BJH). There’s no way to digest all the info in these books and any attempt to summarize will only leave some important kernel out. Peruse the books yourself, especially the BJH and its ‘06 analysis,  for all of the information.

Let’s aim for the highlights and begin where, in the true tradition of Groundhog Day, every conversation about the Cardinals begins these days:

The starting rotation.

(For entertainment purposes only.)

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CHRIS CARPENTER: BJH — 31 starts, 16-10 with a 3.55 ERA. Only John Smoltz and Johan Santana are predicted to have more wins than Carpenter by The Handbook.  … BF — Has Carpenter pegged for a 18-7 season with a 1.14 WHIP and a 3.23 ERA. A fantasy based projection, BF has Carpenter priced at $28. … GP — This book picks apart the previous season and what stands out is how Carpenter has improved over the previous three seasons. Remember he had a shoulder ailment in ‘06. That may have been the only difference between him finishing third in the Cy Young and him running away with it.

KIP WELLS: BF —  It’s the  4.59 ERA and the 1.50 WHIP that stands out here because if he pitches the predicted 145 innings for the Cardinals (and not for Texas or for some “undesignated” team) he’s probably bound for a better record than 7-10. … BJH — 24 starts, 4.70 ERA and (wow) also 99 strikeouts and a 7-9 record.

ANTHONY REYES: BJH — Has him set for 27 starts and 142 innings to go with a 9-6 ERA and a terrific 3.61 ERA. The book also predicts Reyes will have more strikeouts (131) than hits (128). No starter did that last season, and only five Cardinal pitchers did — Adam Wainwright (72 to 64),  Josh Kinney (22 to 17), Tyler Johnson (37 to 33), Chris Narveson (12 to 6) and Jason Isringhausen (52 to 47). Carpenter, FYI, was close at 184 vs. 194. … BF —  Looks for a 12-10 record with a 4.10 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. They set his Ks for 168 in 185 innings.  Those are numbers the Cardinals would be thrilled to get. … GP — Likes what it saws late in the season.

ADAM WAINWRIGHT: GP — Has a great line in its comment about Wainwright and his breakthrough season.  ”A wainwright is a maker of wagons. Adam Wainwright is a maker of bandwagons.” Big on Wainwright’s future. … BF — Has Wainwright  pegged as a closer and getting 30 saves to go with a 3-2 record. His ERA is predicted to be 3.48 and that WHIP is expected to sink to 1.26. With more exposure, BF has him seeing some changes in his baseline stats, like HR/9, but an uptick in his specific stats, i.e.  control. … BJH — Kudos to  The Handbook for putting Wainwright as a  part-time starter in its predictions. He’s at 15 starts and a 112 innings, with a 6-6 record and a 4.02 ERA.

THE OTHERS:  The predictions for Brad Thompson, Braden Looper and Ryan Franklin are all reliever oriented.  But  there are snippets  worth mentioning. Looper  is set for a good season no matter which prediction you look to — five homers, 3.91 ERA, but yikes 78 hits in 76 innings (BJH). Or, 3.48 ERA and 1.35 WHIP and this comment, “2nd half GB% hints at a return to better days” (BF). … Franklin’s numbers  will  less striking, 4.68 ERA, 81 hits, 12 homers in 75 innings (BJH). Or, 4.66 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP (BF). … Thompson is set for 3.54 ERA (BJH). A 3.72 ERA and a hard-charging  second-half trend of getting groundballs (BF). We know that last part was because he went to Triple-A and rediscovered his quality sinker.

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And, now, some tidbits of prediction for the starting eight.

DAVID ECKSTEIN, SS: A .289 average and a .349 on-base percentage seems in line, but how about the return to form with 85 runs scored (BJH). … Not quite as optimistic is BF, expecting a .272 with 73 runs.

CHRIS DUNCAN, LF: The number so many fans in the message boards and in the email inbox want to see: 33 homers, says BJH. Some other numbers include 153 games, 90 runs and 90 RBIs (must be batting second, eh?), and a .511 slugging percentage, which is higher than any season he had in the minors (BJH). … A $15 player with  targets of 24 home runs, a low, low predict of 58 RBIs and a split on the comment, offering a reason while he’ll regress (debut exceeded minor-league trends) and why he won’t (has the skills)  (BF). … Makes the point that his strikeout rate was in line with his minor-league performance (GP).

ALBERT PUJOLS, 1B: Beloved by predictors everywhere, his are usually unique — or shared by a rare few, like Manny Ramirez and Ryan Howard. How will he follow a career year? With his first 50 home run season, 141 RBIs, a wow major league-best 136 runs scored (only Grady Sizemore’s 127 is close), and the rare plus-1.000 OPS of 1.102. Only Howard, Ramirez and Travis Hafner are also plus-1.000 predictions. (All BJH). … BF has him set to reach 50 for the first time, too. Also has him for 202 hits, 132 runs and 137 RBIs. He is a $42 player and BF says, “The scary thing is that nagging injuries … kept his numbers DOWN.” … “Is it possible … that Pujols is still improving?” (GP).

SCOTT ROLEN, 3B: More than a year removed from surgery, Rolen’s predictions from BJH are strikingly similar to what he was able to do in his first year back — 24 homers, 97 RBIs, .288 average, .513 slugging. Seems conservative. … Very similar predictions from BF, save for the caveat that if he’s healthy the predictions should climb to 30-100-.300.

JIM EDMONDS, CF: A return  of the power with 30 home runs and 90 RBIs and 95 runs created and a .520 slugging (BJH). … A more subdued prediction elsewhere of 23 homers, 76 RBIs, and .265 average to go with the statement “the halcyon days are over” (BF).

JUAN ENCARNACION, RF: Perhaps one of the easiest players to predict in the game because every season isn’t too different from the previous one. Set for 17 homers, 75 RBIs and a relatively low .433 slugging (BJH). … “Outwardly one of the more stable skills sets. Behind the curtain, small signs of decline.” Also 17 homers and 71 RBIs (BF). … Scalding comment makes a valid point about how he doesn’t have the power of other corner outfielders (GP).

YADIER  MOLINA, C: Could this be the year? Was the breakout just delayed by six months and October a harbinger? The catcher is set for a .244 average, six homers, 30 RBIs and a .646 OBP (BJH). … Even better: .250 average, nine homers, 52 RBIs and the reason why I expect him to be better offensively in the long run because he “puts the bat on the ball consistently” (BF). … “A manager’s dream with his glove” (GP).

ADAM KENNEDY, 2B: Like Encarnacion, there is a regularity to Kennedy’s career. Targeted for a .281 average and a .341 on-base percentage with 64 runs scored (BJH). … Sees strong stability but a sinking on-base percentage (BF). … Actually eyes a developing platoon split with trouble vs. lefties, .193 in 83 at-bats vs. lefties  2006  (GP).

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