The Musial Theorem: An MVP Formula
TOWER GROVE — The race for the National League MVP is a lot like the league standings — a jumbled scrum of near-contenders with no clear-cut favorite charging to a runaway (or even certain) title.
A funny thing happened on the way to Prince Fielder swinging off with the Mountain man’s trophy, the Brewers were tapped out of first place. Albert Pujols has re-entered the picture as bona fide candidate, Jose Reyes is up to speed with a New York-sized campaign already starting and, quietly, every so subtly, one of the three best hitters in the league needs his team to get some attention or else Matt Holliday won’t have a chance.
Oh, and Chase Utley is back.
Boy is he back.
The final four weeks of the season should offer a clear picture of who is the NL MVP. If you recall, a year ago in The Hot Corner, we attempted to come up with an aggregate rankings for MVP. (It was alluded to again this past weekend when discussing Pujols’ rising and unparalleled rankings in several statistical categories.) The statistics used to develop an MVP Aggregate or MVPag was expanded in a November blog entry.
(Um … looks like I forgot those figures at Winter Warm-Up.)
A larger class of candidates, however, requires a larger, more detailed range of stats.
And therefore a better, sharper formula to see who puts the V in MVP.
I have one in mind. Plan to spend the rest of the evening looking up the various statistics and rankings and see what comes of it. It could take awhile. Which got me thinking: What statistics do the readers out there think should be used? A map to an answer consider the goal: A way to rank value to a team by also considering place within a league.
Call it the Musial theory.
Carroll O’Connor, a Cardinals fan based in Denver, did a little MVPag work of his own during a two-year search for a way to quantify the best hitter in baseball history. As mentioned in a Musial story earlier this season, O’Connor discovered that Musial alone ranked in the top 50 in the most significant offensive categories.
“Well lop-sided,” a college recruiter I spoke with once called such a career.
So what sides should we use to look for the MVP lop? Batting average. Slugging. OPS. Fielding percentage? Fancier stuff, like GPA, runs created, VORP, Win Shares, OPS+? How should a team’s performance weigh in the equation — a factor left out of my MVPag doodling a year ago — or should a player’s relative impact on his team carry more value than his rankings in the league?
I’ve made my choices. I’m off to research the numbers to see what it says.
That should give you some time Tuesday to make a few suggestions. Be back during the game in Houston with some results.
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Some updates: PostCards has taken a hit because of assignments related to the pennant race, the raging success that is JSL!!! – sources say it’s going to earn a fourth exclamation point any day now; so proud, so, so proud. And, there’s a bit of an identity crisis to go with the time crunch. Will work to get the mailbag back on track shortly. It have not been forgotten. … Neither has a potential name change for this blog been forgotten. A visit to the Cardinals Hall of Fame today reconfirmed, at least to me, the historical fit of the proposed new name, The Knot Hole. Bird Land has its fans. Heard from some, but haven’t heard from enough on either side of the fence to make a call.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
OPS+ is pretty much worthless when considering single season stat comparisons since the league average is the same for everyone if .750 is league average this year then a .800 from one guy will compare to a .900 the same way as a 107 OPS+ would to a 120 OPS+ you just know the .900 is better. I would also say if you use OPS that you forgo its two individual stats (OBP and SLG). I personally don’t care for batting average but it does have its uses if weighted properly. WPA is a nice stat too but does have its downfalls (ie Bonds is leading with 4.50 WPA, though after him it is the standard field of Fielder, Pujols, Cabera, etc.). As much as it pains me I don’t know if defense is quantifiable enough to be used in a MVP stat, though I would like it considered by the voters since if Pujols can save 10 runs more then Prince but produces 10 runs less at the plate it should even out over a season. I don’t envy you on this task Goold.
As for the name I love Bird Land but I would be ok with a change since it is your blog. Bird Land to me is nice since it makes me think of the Redbird nickname that the team uses so much. The Knot Hole makes me think about a knot hole in a tree where a bird would come to roost though so it has its niceties as well (and I know there is a deeper meaning that you explained awhile ago). If I was going to start a Cards blog I might use Birds Nest or Redbird Nest or something along those lines if it isn’t taken. Whatever you do though make it something YOU like since it is you that has to keep it updated and has to keep interested in the blog, worry about the readers but if you don’t like the name you won’t update it as often so you still come first.
There is a park-factor applied for OPS+. E.g., the lgSLG for Fielder is .432 and the lgSLG for Pujols is .428. It is worthwhile for comparing players of the same year.
WPA aggregation is not worthwhile for hitters.
The value of a catcher shutting down the opposing team’s running game needs to be factored in. Not only the caught stealing but also the reduced attempts at stealing, as well as the pickoffs. One additional
piece that I do not think can be measured is the ability of a catcher to dig out balls in the dirt, giving his pitcher confidence in throwing these types of pitches for the strikeout pitch.
Derrick:
“Elude” means to avoid. “Allude” means to refer to. Ouch!
Neil,
No fair. You got your comment in as I was fixing my (heinous, annoying, no good, very bad, terrible) typo. I try to elude such things, but, hey, even Tony Gwynn swung at a bad pitch every so often.
Pepper34,
Couldn’t agree more. That actually was the inspiration for last year’s defensive division. I had difficulty understanding how Morneau was considered more valuable than a catcher … with a high CS rate … who won a batting title … on the same team. Or a shortstop with better numbers in valuable offensive categories. There had to be some way to factor in defensive contributions.
To be candid, I haven’t found a great way. Still looking.
Bernie might have some ideas as he trusts some of the defensive statistics that are out there — and may know of one that does a good job of comparing not only from position to position but from pitching-staff style to pitching-staff style.
Hopefully Bernie won’t be able to elude a comment in this blog where I allude to asking him for a suggestion …
dg
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I am a traditionalist. I actually like the human element in all things baseball. The strike zone, safe or out on the bases and such. Therefore, I see no problem with the way MVPs have always been picked. It’s great fun looking at the numbers and comparing, because the stats are also open to interpretation, which is most important and which is of less importance, but don’t over do it.
I also like the Knot Hole for the same reason, it brings to mind the “ole days”, Diz, Daffy, Ducky, the Wild Horse of the Osage and the rest of the Gashouse Gang. Ah, yes the “good ole days.”
Derrick, the simplest (and best?) format for comparing defense that I have found is the Ultimate Zone Rating system developed by Mitchel Lichtman. It simplifies defense into runs saved so it can be compared to runs created on offense. It places 0 at average and anything above or below indicates your contribution or liability. It adjusts for
1. Park Factors
2. Batter Handedness
3. The pitcher’s groundball-to-flyball ratio
4. Base/Out Situation
as described here
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/evaluating-the-evaluators/
Lichtman actually worked for the Cardinals for a time and sometimes shares some juicy tidbits about the “Genius” and his useless matchup cards among other “traditionalist” hooey.
Sherwood,
Will take a look. So, um, your sign on … Is it a nod to the hockey stick, sort of? Or the forest? Because, hey, either way thumbs up. Robin Hood is one of the great books (was just talking with the wife about having little man go as Rob-in-Hood for Halloween). And, well, Andy Strickland, I believe, has been known to use a Sher-Wood stick — and when’s not buzzing he’s coaching hockey, so we’ll trust him …
Just finished tabulating all of the results from what I hope is a new and improved MVPag. Two things caused me problems: Stolen bases and Defense. I’m going to go back and figure out what impact either has on the MVPag+ standings. Will be back with a blog during tonight’s game …
dg
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If we are discussing MVP candidates, what happens if Cincinnati throws their hat into the NL Central race? Do Dunn or Griffey get consideration too? Add their names in the hat and then you REALLY have a cluster…
As it is now, I think Jose Reyes in the MVP. He does it all, but if Philly catches the Mets or makes the playoffs, Utley may be the best candidate. I’m also a bit surprise Jimmy Rollins isn’t being discussed, given his numbers too.
Whatthe,
I went through pages and Web pages of statistics and came up with a list of 17 players to calculate. Adam Dunn was one of them. True, a few were picked because they rank eye in several categories but also offer a “control group” of sorts to measure the other, better candidates against. (Think Ryan Braun as an example.)
Jimmy Rollins is an interesting choice. Can’t say I disagree. But then I looked long and hard for a way that Jose Reyes has a better claim to the award than the guy to his right.
No way is foolproof. We’ll see.
dg
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