The Musial Theorem: An MVP Formula
TOWER GROVE — The race for the National League MVP is a lot like the league standings — a jumbled scrum of near-contenders with no clear-cut favorite charging to a runaway (or even certain) title.
A funny thing happened on the way to Prince Fielder swinging off with the Mountain man’s trophy, the Brewers were tapped out of first place. Albert Pujols has re-entered the picture as bona fide candidate, Jose Reyes is up to speed with a New York-sized campaign already starting and, quietly, every so subtly, one of the three best hitters in the league needs his team to get some attention or else Matt Holliday won’t have a chance.
Oh, and Chase Utley is back.
Boy is he back.
The final four weeks of the season should offer a clear picture of who is the NL MVP. If you recall, a year ago in The Hot Corner, we attempted to come up with an aggregate rankings for MVP. (It was alluded to again this past weekend when discussing Pujols’ rising and unparalleled rankings in several statistical categories.) The statistics used to develop an MVP Aggregate or MVPag was expanded in a November blog entry.
(Um … looks like I forgot those figures at Winter Warm-Up.)
A larger class of candidates, however, requires a larger, more detailed range of stats.
And therefore a better, sharper formula to see who puts the V in MVP.
I have one in mind. Plan to spend the rest of the evening looking up the various statistics and rankings and see what comes of it. It could take awhile. Which got me thinking: What statistics do the readers out there think should be used? A map to an answer consider the goal: A way to rank value to a team by also considering place within a league.
Call it the Musial theory.
Carroll O’Connor, a Cardinals fan based in Denver, did a little MVPag work of his own during a two-year search for a way to quantify the best hitter in baseball history. As mentioned in a Musial story earlier this season, O’Connor discovered that Musial alone ranked in the top 50 in the most significant offensive categories.
“Well lop-sided,” a college recruiter I spoke with once called such a career.
So what sides should we use to look for the MVP lop? Batting average. Slugging. OPS. Fielding percentage? Fancier stuff, like GPA, runs created, VORP, Win Shares, OPS+? How should a team’s performance weigh in the equation — a factor left out of my MVPag doodling a year ago — or should a player’s relative impact on his team carry more value than his rankings in the league?
I’ve made my choices. I’m off to research the numbers to see what it says.
That should give you some time Tuesday to make a few suggestions. Be back during the game in Houston with some results.
***
Some updates: PostCards has taken a hit because of assignments related to the pennant race, the raging success that is JSL!!! – sources say it’s going to earn a fourth exclamation point any day now; so proud, so, so proud. And, there’s a bit of an identity crisis to go with the time crunch. Will work to get the mailbag back on track shortly. It have not been forgotten. … Neither has a potential name change for this blog been forgotten. A visit to the Cardinals Hall of Fame today reconfirmed, at least to me, the historical fit of the proposed new name, The Knot Hole. Bird Land has its fans. Heard from some, but haven’t heard from enough on either side of the fence to make a call.
-30-
Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
OPS+ is pretty much worthless when considering single season stat comparisons since the league average is the same for everyone if .750 is league average this year then a .800 from one guy will compare to a .900 the same way as a 107 OPS+ would to a 120 OPS+ you just know the .900 is better. I would also say if you use OPS that you forgo its two individual stats (OBP and SLG). I personally don’t care for batting average but it does have its uses if weighted properly. WPA is a nice stat too but does have its downfalls (ie Bonds is leading with 4.50 WPA, though after him it is the standard field of Fielder, Pujols, Cabera, etc.). As much as it pains me I don’t know if defense is quantifiable enough to be used in a MVP stat, though I would like it considered by the voters since if Pujols can save 10 runs more then Prince but produces 10 runs less at the plate it should even out over a season. I don’t envy you on this task Goold.
As for the name I love Bird Land but I would be ok with a change since it is your blog. Bird Land to me is nice since it makes me think of the Redbird nickname that the team uses so much. The Knot Hole makes me think about a knot hole in a tree where a bird would come to roost though so it has its niceties as well (and I know there is a deeper meaning that you explained awhile ago). If I was going to start a Cards blog I might use Birds Nest or Redbird Nest or something along those lines if it isn’t taken. Whatever you do though make it something YOU like since it is you that has to keep it updated and has to keep interested in the blog, worry about the readers but if you don’t like the name you won’t update it as often so you still come first.