TOWER GROVE — It’s a good rule of thumb that to be league MVP a player must first be team MVP.

If it only the National League favorites had at least the latter accomplished.

One of  baseball’s “new math” statistics that has gained popularity and credence is Baseball Prospectus’  VORP, or Value of Over Replacement Player. The Cardinals’ first  baseman and sudden MVP candidate Albert Pujols ranks fourth in the  NL with a 56.9 VORP. It’s easily the best on the team. But  because he has the most value, does it make him the most valuable?  Not too far down the list  perches a conspicuous Redbird — reliever Ryan Franklin.

With a 27.3 ranking he is the highest pitcher ranked without a  game started.

The Cardinals are 42-13 (.764) when Franklin pitches.

Surf a few pages away in the baseball corner of the Internet and there’s all sorts of numbers that sweeten Pujols’ candidacy  for the league MVP or support the case that Franklin — or closer Jason Isringhausen —  is the Cardinals MVP.  We can all make  statistics dance to the tune we play. But what about using as many statistics as possible (without significant overlap)  and reading what the numbers say? That was the goal of last year’s MVP Aggregate rankings and the topic brought up here yesterday.

What formula, inspired by Stan Musial’s well-lopsided greatness, would illuminate an MVP?

The ingredients of the formula and explanation is below. The numbers we are headed toward are these, from the should-be NL MVP favorites today:

Albert Pujols, STL  … 72.0 … 59.0

David Wright, NYM  … 65.5 … 61.5

Matt Holliday, COL … 69.0 … 62.0

I sat down to improve last year’s MVPag and here is what  my Trusty Yellow League Pad, a calculator and a wireless connection came up with:  

Don’t worry. I can translate.

Last year’s attempt was elementary. It took raw and popular statistics, tabulated where a player ranked in the league, and spit out a single number that was just the sum of those rankings. Quick. Dirty. Simple. And probably correct. This year’s race is more jumbled and needs a better system. So, I expanded the categories and looked beyond the standard statistics.

Even looked beyond individual statistics.

Went with the following: Batting Average, Slugging Percentage, OPS, Home Runs, RBI, Stolen Bases (groan now, listen later), Runs Created, VORP, Win Shares, Teams Winning Percentage (W-L Record)  when the player  is in the lineup, and Games Back/Ahead in the standings.

For example, Pujols’ line reads: .319 BA … .568 SLG … .989 OPS … 30 HR … 84 RBIs … 2 SB … 101.5 RC … 56.9  VORP … 25 Win Shares … .500 winning percentage (63-63) and -2.0 GB.

Each of those numbers came with a league ranking  – or in the case of  winning percentage and GB/GA a in-set ranking — and those could be added to calculate the player’s MVPag and get a feel for  his overall, well-lopsided value.

The team’s rank and standing in the division offers a little statistical lagniappe to the winners and an anchor to one of the candidates, whose team has a .426 winning precentage when he plays.  

Having scanned all of the above statistics a handful of  names appeared consistently. Others were ranked so high in some that they became tough to ignore. Others  rank highly in one column and can help  provide a “control group” that implodes hype. I settled on 17 names. For example,  New York Mets’ shortstop Jose Reyes’ MVP campaign is gearing up and will have plenty of  momentum. But  it loses a little speed in these calculations because his  resume doesn’t look all that different than, say, Carlos Lee’s.

And, this year, this MVPag resume includes their team’s postseason chances.

Now Reyes’ teammate, David Wright …

Well, enough setup. Let’s get to the rankings.

***

 1. MVPag  (w/ stolen bases)  

Not crazy about this sytem because a player’s 140th ranking in the stolen  category can significantly and unfairly drop  his position. But it’s a start and it instantly reveals a few names that should be favorites for the award that now would be considered dark horses. Arizona outfielder Eric Byrnes ranks relatively high here because the steals, sure, but also consider he is tired for the league-lead in Win Shares (25) and his team has the best winning percentage of the bunch when he plays (.569).

Remember the lower the score the better.

1. David Wright, NYM … 80
2. Matt Hollliday, COL … 103
3. Chase Utley, PHI … 138
4. Hanley Ramirez, FLA … 154
5. Carlos Lee, HOU … 155
6. Chipper Jones, ATL … 159
7. Eric Byrnes, AZ … 174
8. Albert Pujols, STL … 182
9. Ryan Braun, MIL … 195
10. Miguel Cabrera, FLA … 209
11. t Adam Dunn, CIN … 209
12. Barry Bonds, SF … 210
13. Russell Martin, LA … 232
14. Prince Fielder, MIL … 273
15. Jose Reyes, NYM … 287
16. Ryan Howard, PHI … 297
17. Dmitri Young, WSH … 420

***

2. MVPag (w/o stolen bases)

Same idea as above, but done without the 140-point baggage of having just one steal this season or the 188-point anvil of not having stolen a base at all. As expected, this hurts Ramirez most of all. Unexpectedly, Reyes hasn’t been ranking all that high no matter the combination of numbers.

1. Pujols … 61
2. Holliday … 68
3. Cabrera … 69
4. Wright … 73
5. Fielder … 85
6. Utley … 90
7. C. Jones … 96
8. C. Lee … 116
9. Bonds … 147
10. Ramirez … 151
11. Howard … 157
12. Braun … 165
13. Byrnes … 170
14. t Dunn … 170
15. Martin … 218
16. D. Young … 232
17. Reyes … 286

***

3. MVPag+ (w/ stolen bases)

More than just a smarter set of numbers used, this is the real improvement  to the MVPag this year. (Hence the pompous “+” I’ve put on the shorthand, right?)  Adding those 181s and 140s and 36s in there always bothered me. So, if we’re talking about the best candidates for the award why not compare them against their peers? That’s what this does. It takes more specific aggregate approach. As I figured it out this morning, it struck me it’s quite similar to a Roto 5-by-5 league’s standings. Kind of serves the same purpose.

It certainly better serves the goal of this undertaking. The pool of candidates is quickly thinned when we get into the MVPag+ rankings. See for yourself:

1. Wright … 65.5
2. Holliday … 69.0
3. Pujols … 72.0
4. Utley … 79.0
5. Fielder … 81.0
6. C. Jones … 82.0
7. Cabrera … 84.0
8. Ramirez … 87.5
9. Braun … 96.0
10. Byrnes … 101.0
11. Reyes … 104.5
12. Bonds … 107.0
13. Howard … 109.5
14. C. Lee … 113.0
15. Dunn … 116.0
16. Martin … 122.5
17. D. Young … 147.5

***

4. MVPag+ (w/o stolen bases)

The final tally, done without steals to see what difference it really makes in the numbers. Ramirez doesn’t budge. Reyes and Byrnes slip a little. Howard gets a significant bump … and the leader changes.

1. Pujols … 59.0
2. Wright … 61.5
3. Holliday … 62.0
4. Fielder … 64.5
5. Utley … 69.0
6. Cabrera … 69.5
7. C. Jones … 70.5
8. Ramirez … 85.5
9. Braun … 90.0
10. Howard … 95.0
11. Bonds … 95.5
12. Byrnes … 98.0
13. Reyes … 103.5
14. C. Lee … 104.5
15. Dunn … 107.5
16. Martin … 117.5
17. C. Young … 131

***

CONCLUSION

One of the things about baseball’s “new math” is the numbers produced are like words from an alien dialect to most fans. I wanted to see if it’s possible to use readily accessible numbers — a team’s winning percentage when a player players, slugging percentage — and a dash of familiar new math (i.e., Win Shares) to devine the MVP.

Old numbers. New tricks.

I went into the research expecting  Pujols to run away with it — like last year — and figuring Holliday would rank high as well.  For me, Wright and Utley came in higher than expected. Utley was not as damaged by missing a month to injury as I figured. (Imagine if he hadn’t been slowed by a busted hand … would this race be close?)

But what really struck me is how going through the numbers and looking for the most “valuable” and most “well-lopsided” performances of the year revealed how some of the most popular candidates don’t have the most compelling cases. Howard  has had a heck of surge when healthy, but his overall numbers don’t wear well here. Reyes is a shocker.

Defense, for the most part, remains uncharted territory in these charts. That would certainly help Martin’s candidacy and drive Reyes back into the middle of the race while dropping Cabrera. Last year, I took the easy way out — I graded their defense and  divided their aggregate score by  my opinion on their ability or the importance of their position.

This  year …

I am still looking for a better  way.  

At the end here, I do have a better feel for the leading candidates. When it comes down to the final month of the NL, the five players with the best cases  probably are the five players atop  both MVPag+ lists:

• 1B Prince Fielder, Milwaukee
• OF Matt Holliday, Colorado
• 1B Albert Pujols, Cardinals
• 2B Chase Utley, Philadelphia
• 3B David Wright, New York Mets

And not in that order.

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