How the Yankees Got the Cardinals’ Pitchers
TOWER GROVE — While watching the Yankees gain on the Red Sox and restore karmic balance to the AL East, I was struck by New York’s trio of rookie pitchers. Not that they sprang from the minors to stabilize a rickety rotation. No. The thought I couldn’t shake about the young guns was this:
They could have been Cardinals.
This is not some what-if, some speculative reporting tethered to rumors and guesses. This isn’t revisionist writing or even historical fiction. It isn’t hindsight. (OK, OK, it’s a little bit of hindsight.) But the Yankees are charging into the postseason with help from three rookie pitchers — Ian Kennedy, Philip Hughes and Joba Chamberlain – and all three could be part of the club’s rotation next year. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are tossing out TBA after TBA, bracing themselves for another offseason quest for starting pitching and pledging to look within for a prospect who is there … somewhere.
Those prospects (at least three of them) were there.
Ripe for the picking.
And the Cardinals passed.
A recap: In 2003, with the 425th pick overall, the Cardinals selected a righthanded pitcher out of La Quinta High School in Westminster, Calif. He wasn’t the highest profile prospect on his high school team. He wasn’t even the highest regard Ian. But Ian Kennedy had the profile of a pitching prospect, and he was bound for Southern Cal and represented by Scott Boras, which meant signability issues. The Cardinals took. Felt they had a chance. But this was near the beginning of a high school-phobia that gripped the Cardinals. Kennedy wanted too much. The high risk of spending on a high school pitcher spooked the Cardinals. So off to college Kennedy went.
A year later the Cardinals had the 19th overall pick.
That was about all they had, as the club went into the amateur draft without any cross-checkers and less than the best amount of information available on several highly touted prospects. The Cardinals had their eyes on a third baseman — Josh Fields. When he was taken 18th overall, the Cardinals draft directors reset and wrote out a list of three players, all pitchers, that they wanted to draft. That list was presented to some of the club officials. It read:
- Philip Hughes, RHP
- Glen Perkins, LHP
- Chris Lambert, RHP
For some of the Cardinals’ baseball operations, Hughes was the clear choice. He had the 6-foot-5, 200-plus-pound frame. He had the stuff. Scouts said he had the feel. Baseball America called him, at the time, the “complete package.” He had one drawback, in some eyes. Three words: High school pitcher. The 2004 draft is infamous in these parts and its partly because it was The College-Try Draft. The Cardinals went with Lambert. (Lambert “will spurn a promising future in hockey,” said USA Today.) Perkins went 22nd overall to Minnesota. Hughes went 23rd.
Hughes was the top prospect in the Yankees organization entering this season, according to Baseball America. Perkins was the second-best prospect in Minnesota’s organization. Both have been in the major leagues this season, and Hughes is 4-3, 4.75 in 11 starts for the Yankees. Lambert? He was just picked as the player to be named later in the Mike Maroth deal with Detroit.
He topped out as a struggling Triple-A reliever for the Cardinals.
Fast-forward to 2006, and the Cardinals are on the clock at 30th. Coming out of USC was a familiar righthander, one the Cardinals were believed to have their eye. Sources differ on whether the Cardinals had renewed interest in Kennedy. He had arm issues, a less-than-ideal frame. But he had talent. And he might slip. He didn’t. Kennedy went 21st overall. (In the draft room that day, Kennedy was rated rather low on the Cardinals’ board and there were some surprised exclamations when the Yankees snapped him up.)
The Cardinals took Adam Ottavino, a college pitcher, with the 30th pick and eyed another college pitcher in the supplement round.
It wasn’t Joba Chamberlain.
The pitcher from Nebraska was part of a Big 12 duel of aces between Mizzou’s Max Scherzer and the buoyant fireballing Cornhusker. The Cardinals saw Chamberlain several times but seemed lukewarm on him going into the draft. There were health concerns. Triceps tendinitis. Knee surgery. The Cardinals looked south instead and were pleased when Chamberlain went 41st overall and they nabbed Chris Perez at 42. So, Kennedy is getting mentioned as a playoff reliever for the Yankees and Chamberlain is a bona fide Broadway sensation with 24 strikeouts in 18 1/3 innings and a teeny 0.49 ERA in 14 appearances.
Perez is off to Team USA and will get a chance to pitch his way onto the major-league team this spring, though some feel his delivery needs to be refined before he’ll get make the most of that chance. Ottavino spent the season in Class A, where did … well enough. While the Cardinals ponder where Ottavino belongs this coming season, the Yankees have their own dilemma with Chamberlain.
Is he a starter? Or the heir apparent to closer Mariano Rivera?
Decisions. Decisions.
This game of shoulda, woulda, coulda with the draft can be played with any franchise. Think San Diego would like to rethink that Matt Bush over Justin Verlander selection? Or perhaps they’d consider Stephen “Dirt” Drew?
The how of these draft misses are everywhere. It’s the why that concerns us.
The Yankees future rotation contrasted with the Cardinals craving for pitchers reveals how one team has the financial wherewithal and philosophy to take chances while another prefers to stick to slot and measured selections. Ottavino signed for slot at $950,000. Perez signed for near slot at $800,000. Somewhere inbetween, Chamberlain received the highest bonus of any player selected in 2006’s supplemental round — at $1.15 million.
There’s more going on here than slot work, though.
There’s just misfires, misreads, a preference for early returns instead of long-term gains.
Lambert signed for $1.525 million, Perkins for $1.425 million and Hughes for $1.4 million. Not too much difference. Perkins and Hughes improved. Lambert struggled to find the consistent velocity that made his scouting report glow in 2004.
In 2005, the Cardinals had picks 28 and 30, going with torchbearer Colby Rasmus and Tyler Greene. Ten picks after Green, the Dodgers swung for the fences, took Luke Hochevar and whiffed on signing him. With the 42nd pick, Boston took Clay Buchholz. (Heard how that one turned out? No-no you haven’t? C’mon …) And, at 43, the Cardinals selected Baylor righthander Mark McCormick. Rasmus is a bona fide future star. Greene has struggled; McCormick has spent most of his pro time injured. Both were safe, sturdy, track-record picks. So is it better to have picked and signed, or to take a mighty swing and miss?
That’s the organizational philosophy facing the Cardinals as they insist they want to be better at picking, grooming and debuting in-house talent.
Particularly at pitching.
Detroit appears set for several seasons because of a risk-taking approach to the draft. The Tigers — who, granted, have routinely picked higher than the perennial contending Cardinals — have had talent slip to them in the draft because of signability issues and they’ve pounced. Verlander, for example. Or Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin, who are also in the majors. This year, it was Rick Porcello, the prep pitcher the Cardinals had rated as the best high school pitcher in the draft. The best high school pitcher in the draft who was available at 18 when the Cardinals picked.
They called his advisor. They checked to see if they could pay the price.
They picked Pete Kozma.
The prep shortstop, who is seen a safe and predictable prospect, signed for slot, at $1.395 million. Porcello, who is a risk by the nature of high school pitchers, signed at well above slot, going for a $3.58-million bonus at pick No. 27. His total package is worth a reported $7 million guaranteed. He’s a costly miss if he’s a miss. But if he’s a major-league starting pitcher, he’s a bargain in today’s market.
The Yankees have the bank account to take even bigger gambles than Detroit. In short: They can afford to make a mistake. With the 30th pick overall, the Yankees took Andrew Brackman this past summer. An NC State basketball, Brackman has few college innings and a whole bundle of upside. He also needs Tommy John surgery. So, the Yankees were maybe the only team who could afford to take the risk and pay his price – $3.35 million.
Big gambles. Big payoffs.
There is plenty of logic to the Cardinals leaning toward signing free-agent pitchers who have a major-league track record as opposed to spending at the front end on the fleeting promise of a prospect. But the Cardinals stated goal is to develop the next generation of pitchers from within. They have done that in the bullpen. They are starting to do that several positions.
Starting pitching remains their white whale.
They have a few pitchers steadily climbing toward the majors — Mitchell Boggs, Ottavino, Jaime Garcia, etc. – but they don’t have an eye-popper. They’ve sided with safe. With a few notable exceptions. For example: In 2005, the Cardinals coveted Jay Bruce, wanted to draft Jay Bruce, and new they wouldn’t get the chance at the Cincinnati farmhand who just won Baseball America’s minor-league player of the year. So, they identified a player like Bruce, a high-risk, potentially high-reward pick that had the chance to be Bruce.
The player the Cardinals identified as Bruce-like? Rasmus.
So watch the Yankees’ uprising. Check out the rookie pitchers who could have been Cardinals and consider the youth-infused rotation the Yankees will have next summer or the season after. Building from within takes more than saying so. It means taking some leaps. Reaching for a few Rasmuses, aim for a Hughes, even if you end up grabbing a few duds along the way.
But don’t dwell on the comparison for long. Bygones, you know.
And there’s all these free-agent pitchers to comb through as the Cardinals rebuild a rotation for 2008.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
Derrick, excellent piece… though I must say the truths you presented made me ill. The utter incompetence of the Cardinals in evaluating and drafting pitchers is absolutely frightening.
The piece brings up a lot of good points; however, when resources are not an problem you can take chances on draft picks while also spending out of control at the major league level. The Yankees have the resources to do both. The Cardinals do not, plain and simple. Very few teams do. Would you rather draft risky and wait or would you rather be in contention at the major league level? You can’t do both. This is why the commish should institute an international draft and have a rookie cap similar to the NBA. This way the Boras affect in negated. In addition, when a Boston or New York can outbid for a Soriano or Dice-K, it gives them further talent pools to pick from with a distinct advantage over everyone else. So until the playing field is leveled, teams have to decide what is more important.
Your example of Detroit is true; however, how many major league free agents did they pass on to pay for those kids? How many BAD years did they have until that paid off? Yes the Cardinals could do the same thing, but would anyone here want that?
The Boras factor wasn’t brought out in the blog, but it’s frightening how much power Scott Boras has in issues regarding player contracts, especially amanteur players.
Still, I’ve long lamented how terrible the Cardinals have been on Draft Day. I’m still not over Shaun Boyd in 2000 when we coulda had Chase Utley.
And heck, how much info do you really need to draft in the first round anyway. Heck, you can take the draft issue of Baseball America into the War Room alone and get lucky on several picks. It’s right there in front of you.
bravo, derrick. You nailed it. I give luhnow some credit for trying to be on the cutting edge and all, but the coulda shoulda wouldas are really starting to pile up. And when they did take a risk by picking a high upside talent like Russell, they let him go. Only Jaime Garcia strikes me as a future starting pitcher worth his mettle, and he’s experiencing elbow issues.
Thanks big guy.
***
Patrick,
All valid points, some of which were mentioned in the blog. As written: The Yankees can afford to make mistakes. When you have a bankroll of a million you can put a little more on Red 9 and take a spin for big bucks. When you have a tight purse, you play the more conservative game, one that’s more predictable, like Blackjack. The payoff isn’t as great, but the cost is far less.
It’s worth looking into how often that approach produces a top-line pitcher for an organization routinely picking in the latter third of the first round.
***
Billy,
Fine point. The beauty of the blog is I can tinker with the article and did so to reflect the Boras factor in the Kennedy equation. Other players mentioned in the article who have Boras as their agent/advisor are: Brackman, McCormick and Porcello.
dg
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Folks,
Went back and looked up the day-of scouting reports from Baseball America, and there’s some interesting reading:
Philip Hughes, rhp, Foothill HS, Santa Ana, Calif.
Hughes has the complete package, including a power arm that can generate 93-95 mph heat. He also has excellent body control for a pitcher his size, a fluid delivery and an advanced feel for his craft. He isn’t a big strikeout pitcher because his fastball lacks movement, and he was more concerned with tightening his mechanics and developing his offspeed stuff, which ranges from a tight slider to a slurvy breaking ball.
Joba Chamberlain, RHP, University of Nebraska
Chamberlain’s success story is hard to fathom. He didn’t pitch until his senior season in high school, and he spent his freshman year of college going 3-6, 5.23 for Nebraska-Kearney, an NCAA Division II program. He had minor knee surgery after transferring to Nebraska in the fall of 2004, dropped 25 pounds and emerged as a star for the Cornhuskers. … Slowed by triceps tendinitis that caused him to miss a couple of starts early this spring, he has been more inconsistent than he was as a sophomore. But he’s rounding back into peak form, which for Chamberlain means throwing a 92-94 mph fastball that tops out at 97 and a devastating slider. He also has a curveball and feel for a changeup. Once he turns pro his fastball should chew up wood bats. … A member of the Winnebago tribe of Nebraska, Chamberlain will become the highest-drafted Native American ever when he goes in the first 10 picks.
Ian Kennedy, RHP, USC
At his best, Kennedy pitches off his fastball despite a short frame and shows a knack for making the big pitch. Above-average fastball command has allowed him to dominate college hitters (as evidenced by a 158-38 strikeout-walk ratio in 2005) and in two summers with Team USA. Kennedy has regressed in 2006, however, becoming much more hittable (.254 average against versus .201 last year) and vulnerable to big innings. Scouts report Kennedy’s fastball sits more frequently from 86-89 mph, rather than 89-92 as in the past. … Complicating matters, agent Scott Boras represents Kennedy. Scouts can’t agree where he merits being picked but share the belief it will take the right fit of a scout who has followed him since he starred with Rockies prospect Ian Stewart in high school, and an organization comfortable with his size and adviser.
… And for comparison purposes here’s the report on Lambert:
Chris Lambert, rhp, Boston College
Lambert’s strong frame enables him to produce fastballs in the 90-96 mph range. Lambert has a sharp curveball with 11-to-5 break and good rotation. It buckles hitters’ knees when he throws it for strikes, which is only sporadically. Command of all his pitches has been an issue. His changeup is a fair pitch, but he slows his delivery when he throws it and drops his arm angle. Lambert has a full-effort delivery and needs to smooth out his mechanics.
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DG,
One minor quibble. The Cards did gamble on at least a few high upside guys who haven’t panned out, IE Daryl Jones and Tommy Pham, who they gave 3rd round money. Herron was a high school pitcher as well, and he’s starting to blossom. I do agree with your overall assessment that they do seem to go safe and cheap, which is leading to a this pickle the cards are finding themself in now w pitching
reading those scouting reports it sounds like phil hughes was more polished as a high school senior than chris lambert was as a college junior. i don’t have a problem with taking college players, but why do you take a raw college player? if you want a raw high upside guy it is best to get a high schooler who has 3 more years to develop his tools.
Derrick,
I find it hard to believe that investing in above-slot draft gambles and signing major league free agents is an either/or proposition, as another reader suggested in an earlier post referencing the Detroit Tigers. Take whatever the Cardinals’ budget is for the amateur draft ($10 million? $20 million?) Now, add $3 million to your draft budget, or about what Adam Kennedy made this season. That gives you an extra $500,000 to offer six different picks above their slotted money. If I recall the reports on the Russell negotiations, that would have more than covered the unresolved difference between the team and his agent. Or, in some of the Yankee examples mentioned above, your $3m is enough to drop on some of the larger draft prizes, like a Porcello. Given the cost of free agents both on the mound and in the field, it seems obvious to spend a relative pittance more to make sure you draft AND sign the best amateurs available.
Thanks and regards,
Frank Fuhrig
Erik,
I used Rasmus as an example, because he’s obviously shined. Jones is another good example. Pham was fairly highly regarded entering that draft, but fits in your argument well. The larger point has to do with pitching. Pitching is costly. Pitching is risky. Quality pitching, high-end ace pitching is rare. Look at the teams that are producing high-ceiling starting pitchers and trace how they’ve done it. The Yankees have gotten needed help this season from young pitchers — and they’ve been picking low in the draft, like the Cardinals. The question was how?
They reach for a brass ring, and they can afford to fall off the horse.
Which brings it to Fuhrig’s point, which is well-reasoned. I tend to agree that the two prongs are not mutually exclusive, but teams tend to choose a side. Some insist that their budget forces them to build from within. Others prefer to pay for experience and have the payroll flexibility to do so. The Cardinals flirt with a $100-million payroll while preaching a need to develop pitchers to reduce cost. Some teams have to decide where to spend their dollar. Others have two dollars to spend.
Russell has come a few times, and has intriguing a talent as he is, remember that the Cardinals scouts and front office weren’t unanimous on their opinions of his upside. Some were worried about his wood-bat Ks, while others lauded his obvious natural power.
Fuhrig’s last sentence is the tipping point in this argument.
dg
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great blog dg..it opens your eyes to the blindness of the cardinals failure to draft quality starting pitching… one pitcher not mentioned for the cardinals is pj walters..i think he maybe the closest minor league starter to the big leagues..even though he finished in springfield…you think he starts in memphis with a callup sometime before september?
“Signability” seems to be a key part of the Cardinals decision making. Surely, they don’t want to take many high priced gambles, and when they call an agent about a Porcello, they appear to find the price is too high.
The question I ask is … Given the Cardinals miserable track record at developing young pitchers, I wonder how many of these agents choose to make their pitchers signability problems because it is the Cardinals that are calling …. If you were Scott Boras, would you want your stud pitching prospect drafted by the Cardinals?
You can also add Max Scherzer and Brett Sinkbeil to the list of pitching prospects the Cardinals didn’t spend money on, after those two were drafted in the later rounds out of high school.
Both went on to be first-round draft picks a few years later.
Greg,
An intriguing take worth further examination. But those are fighting words to manager Tony La Russa. His contention has always been that the “development of players is fine”, the people doing the developing are talented. It’s his opinion that they need better talent to work with.
dg
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Received this email from a reader who had trouble dropping his thoughts into the comment section of the blog. The information, observations and research here is worth sharing, so here goes (hope this is readable):
I didn’t see anything in your article about Pujols. I believe he was 13th round. I guess, other teams scouts aren’t much better. How many players were taken ahead of him? I wonder how the Royals feel, missing him right under their collective noses.