Slim Pickins: Shopping for a Starter
TOWER GROVE — On Monday, the Cardinals and anyone else who coveted him got an eyeful of why Jake Westbrook was destined to be one of the most sought after free agents this coming winter. He held Boston to two runs during 6 2/3 innings of work for the Cleveland Indians.
And, take a breath sinker aficionados (sinkeristas? sinkerthusiasts?), Westbrook coaxed 14 groundouts.
He got three inning-ending double plays.
No wonder he’s been on the Cardinals’ target list for several seasons, prepped as they were for Cleveland to either offer the righthander around in trade or let the 30-year-old walk at the end of this season and become a free agent. The Cardinals were waiting. Alas, the wait won’t pay off. Cleveland’s too wise, locking up Westbrook in April on a three-year extension worth $33 million.
Such extensions, like the one Carlos Zambrano received, have filtered the top-end talent from the pool of starting pitchers available as free agents this winter.
It’s a tough time to be a team in need of starting pitchers.
Tougher still to be a team in desperate need of starting pitchers.
Perhaps, however, this week offered another name that will catch the Cardinals’ eye. He pitched a night earlier than Westbrook with similar success. He allowed one run and seven hits during his six innings, while striking out three and walking one. He’s not a huge name, by any stretch, but his market could increase because of postseason success — and his finish down the stretch. He’s gone from trade bait in spring training to possibly one of the sought after mid-range pitchers this offseason.
He is … Josh Fogg.
The Cardinals held meetings Tuesday to pick through the bin of available free agents. Led by interim general manager John Mozeliak, the pro scouts discussed who was available, who was interesting and just how much value each free agent had. Safe to say ample time was spent talking starting pitching. The Cardinals, in a way, have already helped set the market for starters this season by signing Joel Pineiro to a two-year, $13-million deal.
So, with the Cardinals’ need, the list of available pitchers and the Pineiro contract as our guide here are some other names that could fit for the Cardinals. (For estimated contract values will split them into years and cost and use Pineiro (JP) as the control group.)
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JOSH FOGG, RHP — During spring training the Rockies were shopping Fogg and there were some corners of the National League that believed the Cardinals were one of the interested teams, if the Rockies did decide to deal him. Fogg, who will turn 31 in December, has career record that will sound familiar: Drafted by the White Sox. Starter for Pittsburgh. Complimented as an opponent by the Cardinals. Why he could be Kip Wells Jr. Wells does have better stuff. Fogg has just pitched better recently. He finished the regular season on a jag. Fogg allowed four or fewer runs in all of his final six regular-season games; four times he allowed six or fewer. His road ERA was 4.15 this past season, and the team has gone 7-1 in his past eight appearances. The one rotten tomato being his start in the tiebreaker game (five runs, four innings), a game the Rockies obviously won. Anybody else see the obvious match here?
Cost: Similar to JP. Length: Less than (if cost is greater) or equal to JP.
TOM GLAVINE, LHP — Declined an option on his deal with the Mets and common belief is that he’s headed back to Atlanta. Whoa, there. As colleague Joe Strauss is fond of pointing out — St. Louis is close enough to Atlanta for Glavine to get home quite expediently. No need to repeat the lefty’s illustrious record — 300 wins, etc. — or to state how easily he’d slide into a rotation in need of some veteran leadership until Chris Carpenter returns. Etc. Etc. There’s a lot here that makes sense, right down to the organization’s current leadership’s relationship with his agent.
Cost: Greater than JP; Length: Less than JP.
JASON JENNINGS, RHP — This deal was a steal for Colorado, all the way to the World Series. And the only way Houston could salvage this deal is to sign Jennings to an extension or to a new deal and see if he comes back healthy and productive. (That might sound familiar.) Jennings won two games for Houston and had a 6.45 ERA that was nearly double his ERA from 2006 — which he sported at Coors Field. He spent most of the season injured, including a torn flexor tendon in his elbow. The Cardinals were interested in dealing with Colorado for Jennings, a Texas native, last offseason, but that was only until they saw what the Rockies wanted in return. Talented pitcher. Bad luck season. Coming off injury. Follow the bread crumbs.
Cost: Less than JP (but with incentives); Length: Less than JP.
CARLOS SILVA, RHP — Is expected to be the most sought after pitcher in the market, even as some experts are saying he’ll get in the neighborhood of Vicente Padilla’s or Ted Lilly’s deal from last winter. There are many reasons Silva seems like a trap deal, a pitcher who is good enough to get a lot of interest and a deal that is far beyond anything he’s worth. At 28, Silva does have four consecutive seasons of 180-plus innings. He just completed his first 200-innings season. Three seasons of 30 starts. Reliability matters. But what does he do with those innings? A career 4.31 ERA. He’s a contact pitcher. Doesn’t strike out many at all; doesn’t walk batters either. That also means hits, 10 per nine pitched. And, for the numbers crunchers out there, Silva’s Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) is 35.5. That means the pitcher who could be the top of his free-agent class ranks 41 in VORP — or dead middle — of the 82 pitchers who threw at least 160 innings.
Cost: Greater than JP; Length: Greater than JP.
LIVAN HERNANDEZ, RHP — Solid. Reliable. Veteran. Just finished his 10th consecutive season with at least 199 2/3 innings pitched. (It’s his eighth consecutive with at least 200 innings pitched.) He’s going to handle innings, and the majority of those innings will be quality. A fly ball pitcher, he could do alright in new Busch even if he doesn’t fit the standard recipe for Cardinals pitching. He’ll be 33 according to his baseball card. It’s interesting to note that the two most comparable pitchers to him at 31, according to Baseball-Reference.com, are Darryl Kile and Andy Benes. His VORP for those who are wondering — 20.4, or 60th among players with more than 160 innings pitched last season.
Cost: Greater than JP; Less than or equal to JP.
ANDY PETTITTE, LHP — He can choose whether he’ll be a free agent or not, and there’s some thinking he’s waiting to hear the Yankees decision on Joe Torre before making a commitment. (He also also be waiting to hear on pitcher coach Ron Guidry’s future with the organization.) Pettitte has a $16-million player option for 2008, and he has until 10 days after the World Series ends to exercise it. That’s a rich deal to walk away from, but Pettitte has made intriguing decisions before. He seems to be content to shuttle between Houston and the Yankees. But the Cardinals were brought into the conversation last winter. Walt Jocketty said he never believed the Cardinals really had a chance to sign Pettitte; he felt they were being brought in as a third party to a two-party haggle. But the Cardinals did make an offer and Pettitte remains one of the top-flight lefties in baseball.
Cost: Much greater than JP; Length: Greater than or equal to JP.
FREDDY GARCIA, RHP — Acquired from the White Sox for a couple high-end prospects, Garcia was a bust for the Phillies. He won 17 games in 2006, finished third in the Cy Young voting six years ago and had never had an ERA higher than 4.55. But shoulder problems dogged him all year. He chose not to have shoulder surgery early in the season and has not started since early June. Finally, he surrendered and had his labrum repaired in August. If healthy, he’s exactly the kind of rotation cornerstone a contender needs, with upside. But that’s a risk-taking venture because his health is a question. Might be worth the gamble.
Cost: Equal to JP (before incentives); Length: Equal to JP (with requisite option).
CURT SCHILLING, RHP — My bosses have asked me to stop writing so sarcastically about Schilling. So I will. He’s a free agent. He’s righthanded. He’s in his early 40s. He’ll be expensive. He can still pitch effectively enough, but is an injury risk. He blogs. That’s about all I got.
Cost: Greater than JP; Length: Less than JP.
JEFF WEAVER, RHP — And, finally, here’s a familiar face. Is it time for Weaver to return after another flirtation with the American League West? In 1 1/2 seasons out West with the Angels and, this year, the Mariners, Weaver is 10-23 in 43 starts with an ERA right around 6.25 Compare that to his 5-4 record and 5.18 ERA with the Cardinals in that brief, World Series-bound stint here. Weaver is so many ways is a picture that thrives in the National League, yet the money offered by teams in the American League continues to woo him and his agent, Scott Boras, there. For a third consecutive season, Weaver could be looking to get a one-year deal that finally sets him up to cash in. Again, where better to do that then a place he knows he’s had success? Enter the Cardinals. If Boras’ goal is to get Weaver one solid, career year so that he can score the big, multi-year deal than he may have to choose situation over dollars. Or, maybe it’s time to stop flitting around from team to team and just settle into a location. There’s a lot of reasons why Weaver would like the Cardinals. And while Jocketty was resistent to pay Weaver for brief service when the body of work was so alarming (see: those 6.00 ERAs), Pineiro’s recent deal hints that the Cardinals might have … well, adjusted their thoughts on that matter.
Cost: Greater than JP; Length: ???.
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There are other pitchers who will be free agents that might merit a look (Kyle Lohse, anyone? Wade Miller? Randy Wolf, again?), but the above is a good sampling of the best or best-fit available. There are also a handful of pitchers who will be available who have already been Cardinals — like Sidney Ponson, Kip Wells and, however briefly, Tomo Ohka. It will be interesting to see where Wells lands. We know there are 29 possibilities.
Also on the horizon are the non-tender picks. It was about 11 months ago that Bird Land pegged Pineiro as a non-tender target for the Cardinals, and that list will be more clear about a month from now. There are some intriguing possibilities: Daniel Cabrera (highly doubtful), David Bush (hmmm) and … Mark Prior.
Many reports have Prior’s years with the Cubs over, and wouldn’t he be, in so many ways, a low-risk, high-reward dice roll, ala Carpenter, for the Cardinals.
Anyone?
But in scanning the list of available free agents and potential free agents one thing really comes into focus: The meetings the Cardinals pro scouts and front office are having today may be more important than the conversations they had Tuesday.
Today they are talking trade targets.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between.
I wouldn’t mind going after Matt Clement either. If the Cardinals are looking at maybe an injury risk pitcher trying to rehab that could give good results, he might be a fit. What king of contract do you believe he would get?
Interesting factoid I came across while looking up information for another article: The invaluable Baseball-Reference.com compares pitchers against one another, using a synthesized number to generalize who compares best to whom. Well, some familiar names come up for Jake Westbrook …
1. Jason Marquis
2. Joel Pineiro
3. Bronson Arroyo
4. Adam Eaton
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Don’t see a single name in the article that I would want on the mound for the Cardinals in 2008. They better start thinking trades.
A sports columnist in today’s San Francisco newspaper is recommending the Giants put Matt Cain on the trade block for a young hitter. He says “Matt Cain, who had a 3.65 ERA, and gave up just 173 hits in 200 innings — but finished with a 7-16 record because the Giants’ hitters didn’t score runs for him and the bullpen couldn’t hold leads.” How about trading them outfield extra Skip Schumaker?
I don’t think Skip is enough of a hitter to be what they are looking for. I’d imagine that they would be looking for more of a middle of the order type of hitter, after all, they just picked up a speedy outfielder (Rajai Davis) from the Pirates at the trade deadline.
Any chance of getting John Smoltz from the Braves & would he leave? Could offer them Anthony Reyes, Chris Duncan, Aaron Miles, Joe Mather & an arm from the farm. Certaintly a much better deal than shipping Dan Haren, Daric Barton & Kiko Calero to Oakland for Mark Mulder.
Matt Cain should draw attention from the Cardinals. But it may cost Chris Duncan, not Schumaker. How about that? Duncan as the Giants first opening day left fielder since Barry Lamar Bonds left that area …
Smoltz was set to be a free agent, and would have been courted by the Cardinals — sort of like Westbrook. But the Braves locked him up long term and it’s doubtful he would agree to a deal, yet alone would Atlanta look for a deal. Also, that’s too many players to offer and yet not enough to pry away Smoltz.
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