What Renteria Teaches Us
TOWER GROVE — Ten years to the day that Edgar Renteria laced a base hit up the middle in extra innings of Game 7 to win Jim Leyland his first World Series as a manager, the two were reunited as Detroit Tigers on Monday.
The Atlanta Braves traded the All-Star shortstop to the Tigers for a couple high-ceiling prospects. In Detroit, the move is being heralded as yet another example of the Tigers being in it to win it, no matter the cost. Detroit Free Press columnist Drew Sharp wrote the Tigers are over their “Smoltz-itis” and ready to add another All-Star to a lineup already bursting with them. Just. Like. The Yankees. In Atlanta, the trade is the first big move by new general manager Frank Wren, but it has all the feel of an old move — trading from a strength to replenish a minor-league system that is annually called up to produce a difference maker for a contender.
Here, is St. Louis it’s much more than a missed chance at Renteria.
It’s a sobering reminder.
The organization, as a whole, has a long way to go.
If the Boston Red Sox have swept the World Series then the Cardinals must be looking for a shortstop. It happened in 2004, and the Cardinals — arguably — won the merry-go-round of shortstops by landing World Series MVP and adopted son David Eckstein. Eckstein, like Renteria before him, is off to free agency and the Cardinals are considering their options. One was Renteria, whom it was widely known the Braves were shopping.
Renteria is owed $9 million for 2008 and there is a $12-million option for 2009 with a $3-million buyout. Money isn’t the issue.
For the last couple years, the Cardinals have made it a priority to rebuild and restock their minor-league system so that they can become more self-reliant. Their moves this offseason — including the forthcoming hiring of a new general manager — hint that the future is now, and that the focus will be on speeding up the development of the minor-league system. On both sides of the Renteria deal, the state of the Cardinals current situation is revealed … as is the amount of work ahead for them.
This is what the Renteria deal tells us about the Cardinals:
The Cardinals are lacking the prospects to land this kind of All-Star. This is the most obvious one, because the Tigers offered up two of their top five prospects to land Renteria: RHP Jair Jurrjens and OF Gorkys Hernandez. When writer Jon Paul Morosi ranked the Tigers’ system for Baseball America he had Jurrjens ranked fifth last year and Hernandez eighth. Both went out and earned a promotion. Jerrjens made seven starts in the major leagues this season, going 3-1 with a 4.70 ERA (in the American League, in the American League Central, as a rookie). The righthanded is 21 years old and spots a fastball that sits at 93 mph, a slider and a changeup. In his final three Double-A starts, Jurrjens went 3-0 with a 0.78 ERA, 24 strikeouts, one walk and 23 innings pitched. The Braves – and you have to like their real-world view here — liken him to Jo-Jo Reyes. Jurrjens will get a chance at a rotation spot.
Hernandez, 20, just finished his first full season as a pro and was voted the most exciting player in the Midwest League by the managers in that league. (Sound familiar?) He hit .293 , 84 runs, 50 RBIs and 54 steals. A quick note: He had more than a fourth of the steals by a team that was a go-go lineup when I saw it play up in Quad Cities. Atlanta sees him, according to reports, as developing center field to help them recover — in several years — from Andruw Jones’ departure.
Who could the Cardinals offer to compete with that kind of offer? Sure, Colby Rasmus. And … Brad Thompson is seen as one of the Cardinals best bargaining chips. He has starts in the majors. He has a World Series ring and loads of experience. But does he present a better rotation option than Jurrjens, who is four years his junior, three years behind him in arbitration rights and several mph ahead of him with the fastball? The Cardinals top young starting pitcher prospects haven’t sniffed Triple-A and one (Jaime Garcia) is recovering from elbow trouble. In BA’s Prospect Handbook, Jurrjens and Hernandez ranked in the Tigers’ top seven. Pick two of equal caliber and track record from the Cardinals top seven in the same book:
- Colby Rasmus, OF
- Jaime Garcia, LHP
- Chris Perez, RHP
- Blake Hawksworth, RHP
- Jon Jay, OF
- Bryan Anderson, C
- Adam Ottavino, RHP
Now keep those two in mind for later. This is well-hoed ground, so let’s move on.
The Cardinals cannot afford to trade such high-end prospects. If you were able to pluck two players out of that top seven that are the equal or greater than the Tiger tandem traded, consider the next question: Who replaces them? If the Cardinals deal Rasmus, who is the next center fielder in the system pushing behind him or leading him? Who is the pitcher behind Garcia? Detroit was able to deal Jurrjens because the Tigers have a rotation stocked with young pitchers already, another will join them permanently in 2008 (Andrew Miller), and another is believed to be on his way (Rick Porcello). The Tigers could deal a distant center fielder because they have one of the best playing already in the majors and another on the cusp, in Cameron Maybin, who is widely regarded as one of the best athletes and top prospects in the game.
The Cardinals are devoted to becoming more self-sustaining and dealing away the blue-chip players they have is a quick way to tumble back to square three, two or even one. There are certain players — and Rasmus would chief among them — that the Cardinals do not have a backup for who is even teasing at being of the same promise.
The Cardinals do not have a veteran to spin into that prospect depth. Atlanta was able to deal Renteria to get the kind of prospects the Cardinals need to add that depth to their minor-league system. In several ways, this is a rich-get-richer trade, as the Braves get the major-league-ready pitcher and the top-end prospect to add to a deep minor-league system … all because they have a veteran All-Star coming off a good season that they can deal.
One of the reasons the Cardinals haven’t done that is because they’ve had veterans play their contracts out — while the team is annually in contention. Hard to argue with that approach. It’s been quite successful. And think of when the Cardinals did spin-off a vet for prospects: They landed Adam Wainwright, Jason Marquis and Ray King, all of whom contributed to at least one NL pennant winner and King was peddled to land Aaron Miles.
Now the Cardinals have a player like Chris Duncan. Not quite a veteran. Not quite an All-Star. But certainly a commodity. Do they have the willingness to deal him? And even if they do (unlikely), will it be to score the starting pitcher they need or to grab a prospect or two that would help seed the vine? Could Scott Rolen be the veteran flipped into prospects? Or will all the obstacles (health, 10-5, salary) get in the way as much as the next Renteria Revelation …
The Cardinals do not have the prospects pushing veterans into the trade market. It was obvious the Braves would be looking to move Renteria because they wanted to get Yunel Escobar into the lineup and playing shortstop. Wrote Dave O’Brien in this morning’s Atlanta Journal Constitution:
The Braves wouldn’t have traded Renteria if they weren’t confident in shortstop Yunel Escobar after an outstanding rookie season.
The Braves, earlier this season, were able to swing the deal for switch-hitting Mark Teixeira because catcher Brian McCann was blocking the plate from prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia. There’s a good chance both will be the same All-Star Game — on opposite teams, granted — in the near future. Atlanta can do these deals because they have prospects pushing at the major-league door, banging on it, kicking it in. The Cardinals had a little of that this season with … Rick Ankiel. Brendan Ryan isn’t viewed by the organization as a viable everyday shortstop yet, so the Cardinals cannot avoid shopping for one this offseason. There isn’t a third baseman storming up the system. There isn’t a sure thing at second. Outfield is where they’re coming.
The Renteria deal exposes so many places the Cardinals are lacking. Yet, it also shows why it has become so important for the Cardinals to shore-up their system.
Many things are possible with premium prospects on hand and depth in the minors.
They make competitive deals possible. They fill in for deals made. They push veterans into the trade market to collect more prospects. They fill major-league jobs. Oh, and there is the other, far more tangible, benefit to the Braves:
They shaved almost $9 million off their payroll.
They can now use that to dive into the free-agent market for — what else? — pitching. That’s where they’ll find the Cardinals and the Renteria deal may affect the Cardinals’ plans for a second time this winter.
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Baseball Prospectus’ Nate Silver had a win-win take on the Renteria trade.
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THE LINEUP: Top Climbers
Or, as I work on BA’s Top 30, what prospects (non-2007 draft pick category) are scaling the rankings after their performance in the 2007 season.
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Mitchell Boggs, RHP (was 11, now top 10)
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Mark Hamilton, 1B (was 13, will probably be top 10)
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Brad Furnish, LHP (was 23, into top 20)
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Mike Parisi, RHP (unranked — long story — now has to be)
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Jarrett Hoffpauir, 2B (unranked, now could be highest climber)
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Joe Mather, OF (unranked, now will be)
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Kyle McClellan, RHP (unranked, now will be)
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P.J. Walters, RHP (unranked, this year’s Trey Hearne)
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D’Marcus Ingram, OF (unranked, now … top 25?)
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between.
Very fair assessment for the Cardinals, DG. It’s true that the Cardinals origination and the fans enjoy veterans who play out their contracts here. Hometown discount is always inferred when their contracts are out, yet most walk (Edmonds exception?). Veterans like Rolen insist having no trade waivers structured into their contracts and desire long term deals.
It’s no wonder that the Cardinals can’t make deals when the team is full of play-out, trade-waived, injured veterans and a shallow minor league system. I think the Cardinals need to re-think long term deals and contract structures; They need to shore up the minor league system by making the occasional all-star type trades for caliber minor leaguers that fill needs in the long-term (Dead-weight Drew and Marrero for Marquis, Wainwright, et. al comes to mind).
Detroit is a good model. If Dewitt is willing to open the payroll to 110M. And they know they don’t have many barging chips to trade for an all-star, perhaps there is room for A-Rod at SS? Sweet Lou would love for him to play on the North Side.
What strikes me Detroit can afford to flip the prospects, in part because they are very obviously willing to spend in the draft.
If the Cardinals wanted to pay the insane salary that Boston offered him, they could have kept him at the time he became a free agent. That said, why would they even consider paying him that salary now AND offer several good prospects for him? (12 million dollars in 2009. You have got to be kidding!) The fact that the Cardinals did not bite tells me that they are committed to building the farm system, not trading more of it away. Don’t lament the fact that the Cardinals did not get Renteria. Be very thankful. (And for all those who have suggested they might make a move for A-Rod–you are idiots.)
No 3rd basemen rising thru the system??? Really? Did you pay attention at all??? Oh, either of those prospects traded better than a .330 left handed hitting catcher that was only 20 in AA this year???? Don’t think so. They Cards have other moves to make before they address SS. I would love to see Ryan as the starting SS.
Chris,
Who? Who is your third baseman? Can’t drop a question like that without a name. What third baseman is ready for 2008 that makes it possible for the Cardinals to try and trade Scott Rolen because they know they have an in-house replacement?
You bring up an interesting question … are either of the prospects Atlanta got in return for Renteria better than Bryan Anderson. He hit .298 in Double-A as a 20-year-old and is off playing for Team USA right now. He’s considered one of the top five prospects in the Cardinals organization and one of the top hitting catcher prospects in the minors. But, is he going to stay a catcher? Scouts are split on that question. If he is … well, does Atlanta need him? Check out the McCann-Salty sentence. Atlanta wanted pitching (who doesn’t?) and a CF prospect.
You are not alone in wanting to see Ryan as the everyday SS for the Cardinals. I have received several emails arguing that case. There just aren’t that many in the org that see it happening in ‘08.
Questions back at you Chris …
dg
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Home town discount with Edmonds? More like a home town bonus. With the wisdom of hindsight, the deals that Jocketty gave to Edmonds, Mulder and Kennedy were reason enough to fire him (a dozen good years aside).
If the Yankees and Red Sox are out of the market for A-Rod, who is going to give him $20 million or more? If he falls below $20 million, does he become a “bargain” signing? How would he fit in with Pujols, especially making more money than Albert? Barring the A-Rod fantasy, who else is out there at shortstop? Maybe Theriot becomes expendable in Chicago if the Cubs actually sign A-Rod and put him back at short, since they just signed Aramis Ramierez to a a huge contract at third last year. But what other shortstops are out there, and what market is there for Eckstein, for that matter? He’s hit above his career average for three years in St. Louis, but I don’t see suitors breaking his door down this off season, just as last year. At 32, he’s showing signs of breaking down a bit physically (recurring back, ab and hammy injuries). Maybe we re-sign him again for one year at $3-$4 mill, with the assumption of another three-man middle-infield rotation with Ryan and Miles. Maybe Kennedy can carry their luggage on road trips, unless somebody has a better idea.
Has the Renteria trade hurt Mozeliak’s case to become GM?
Has the Renteria trade hurt Mozeliak’s case to become GM?
Let me answer my own question: Apparently not.
The Tigers now have Renteria and Polanco. Fernando Vina and Craig Paquette finished their careers in Detroit. It’s like they’re having a reunion of the 2001 Cardinal infield up there. About all they’re missing among active players is Pujols and Miguel Cairo.
Sorry I couldn’t answer sooner…on a business trip. Allan Craig had an excellent year at Palm beach (.899 OPS) and moved up to AA at the end of the year.
The Detroit model for talent has worked well and is easy to implement.
2003 43 - 119 ‘04 draft Verlander
2004 72 - 90 ‘05 draft Maybin
2005 71 - 91 ‘06 draft Miller
They changed the model and took a big organizational prospect risk in 2006 by participating in the World Series. But they rebounded in the ‘07 draft by blowing off the MLB slotting system by paying $3.6M on HS rhp Rick Porcello. The Cardinals went safe 9 picks earlier by paying a slot $1.4M for HS ss Pete Kozma who replaces ‘05 ss draft pick Tyler Greene as the Cards next middle infield wannabe.
A fairer comparison though is the prospect production of the Red Sox and Theo Epstein.
During the past 4 drafts they have produce major league players in Ellsbury, Pedroia(2nd rd.), and Buchholz.
The Cardinals have produced the potential of Colby Rasmus.
Let the Mo/Luhnow era begin.