Prospect SATs (Rasmus is to Sizemore as …)
TOWER GROVE — A reminder of the Cardinals possible future was in Nashville yesterday, a free agent selling his services to the gathered general managers.
Outfielder Steve Finley, who rejected acceptance to a prestigious chiropractor school ot pursue a career in baseball, visited the Opryland this week to talk with club executives about his desire to keep playing, at 42. It’s a name that has not only been mentioned as a prospective Cardinal, in the past, but also linked to a Cardinals prospect, in the present.
It’s a popular game to play: Prospect A is the next Player B.
The list of players who profile as the next Chuck Finley, or another Royce Clayton or a future Jesse Barfield is long. Comparing a prospect to a major leaguer — either past or present — helps define the prospect, helps quantify what his ceiling is if everything breaks right. It shortens a conversation or a scouting report when a fan, scout, reporter or executive can take a shortstop and say, “He’s Derek Jeter at this stage.”
It was during one of these exercises that Finley came up in connection with a Cardinals’ prospect. But not just any Cardinals’ prospect. The Cardinals’ universally recognized top prospect, one of the top 10 prospects in the minors, according to multiple rankings (the most recent one here). Colby Rasmus, one report said, profiles as a Steve Finley-type outfielder. And there it was. Two words that described a kid fresh out of high school.
Rasmus could be Finley.
Finley, a lefthanded hitter who handled center fielder superbly for five different teams before 2004. Twice an All-Star who also finished in the top 10 in MVP voting in 1996.
A career .271 hitter who won five Gold Gloves.
While working on the Cards Talk Community Top 30, I received some emails asking similar questions. Who does Chris Perez compare to? What is the upside comparable for Jarrett Hoffpauir? That got me thinking about the SAT. Remember those vocabulary comparisons?
Hot:Cold
- Boiling:Pasta
- BCS:Logic
- La Russa:Rolen
- Frost:Longfellow
At the same time I was reading something about the great Bill James’ fielding spectrums (put a player at the most important position he can play; shortstop over third over second over left field) and having a lengthy conversation about the pitching spectrum (starter over closer over specialist). I realilzed: The SAT structure could be used to offer a spectrum for a prospect. Quick. Easy. Informative.
Jarrett Hoffpauir:Bo Hart:Ian Kinsler
The first name listed is the prospect being described, followed by his midrange target and then the everything-breaks-right profile. You read it: “Jarrett Hoffpauir compares to Bo Hart with a high end of Ian Kinsler.”
There’s a lot of educated guessing go on here. But it seems to work.
Try it yourself.
It’s important here to put another disclaimer: These are not predictions on who a player will be or what this player’s value is or the pitch the Cardinals could make to trade said prospect. This is, in many ways, a best-case scenario exercise, a way to understand what a player’s trends are. There are better ways to assess the Cardinals’ system as a whole and specific prospects. This is a parlor game.
But it starts the conversation that leads to better understanding the distance the Cardinals have to go with their minor-league system.
I asked a few of the Cardinals’ canonical bloggers to try their hand at it, and Viva el Birdos Larry Borowsky and Future Redbirds’ Erik Manning (we performed a content trade) came through with a handful of Prospect SATs, including a few from me:
Cody Haerther:Emil Brown: Andre Ethier
Cody Haerther:John Rodriguez:Rusty Greer
Mark Hamilton:Daryle Ward:Ryan Klesko (mid-90s)
Allen Craig:Ty Wigginton:Garrett Atkins
Shane Robinson:Steve Stanley:Jason Tyner
Mitchell Boggs:Jason Johnson:Steve Trachsel*
Adam Ottavino:Daniel Cabrera:Javy Vazquez
Jose Martinez:Mike Lansing:Placido Polanco
Tyler Herron:Jamey Wright:Derek Lowe
D’Marcus Ingram:Jarvis Brown:Kirby Puckett
There are some really excellent ones in there (Craig for example). I would argue that Jeff Suppan is the better fit where Trachsel is mentioned for Boggs; Suppan may be a better comparable for Blake Hawksworth, come to think of it. I keep tinkering with the Martinez line; now taking suggestions.
There are also some boldly optimistic, like the Kirby Puckett comparison for Ingram — who gets that name attached to his because of his size and high-energy way he plays. Or, Cabrera being the middle comparison for Ottavino. That’s lofty. Another one put together — Pete Kozma:Jack Wilson:Edgar Renteria – doesn’t quite have the range necessary. Maybe a Clint Barmes belongs in there?
Which brings us back to the top prospect and his comparisons. A new name was attached to Rasmus this past season as he started cranking out the extra-base hits and his defense earned him the tag as the best center fielder in his league. That vote of managers that dubbed him the “most exciting” player in the Texas League didn’t hurt.
If you look at this possible spectrum, you see why the Cardinals are singing the same tune in Nashville that they were here: Rasmus is untouchable. His Prospect SAT:
Colby Rasmus:Steve Finley:Grady Sizemore
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There has to be more out there, better ones out there. Got any?
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A quick story: During one of the series in Milwaukee this season a major leaguer who must remain anonymous and I were talking in the dugout. He asked me this question: “Think Ryan Braun would play in the outfield and Scott Rolen might be a fit over there at third base?” The idea at the time was that Rolen would be a welcome presence and a needed glove for the Brewers. The rumbling at the time was that Milwaukee would listen to offers for then-injured Ben Sheets and Bill Hall was struggling enough that a change-of-scenery was prescribed. (Now it’s Chris Capuano, as everyone knows.) There was the no-trade hurdle to clear with Rolen, but Milwaukee is a rising team and a relatively stress-free market, plus Rolen’s buddy Suppan is already there. The conversation gained steam as so many things made sense, so many needs matched up and then we hit about the one big pitfall:
Trading a player of Rolen’s caliber within the division … worse, to a team that might just surge ahead in the standings because of his addition.
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Forgot to put another one the esteemed bloggers and I put together:
Chris Perez:Kyle Farnsworth:Brad Lidge