NEAR BOULDER — There is a gentle blizzard outside, and that means fresh powder up in them there mountains. Not to be confused, of course, with the “dry powder” the Cardinals still have for this here roster.

By now the Colby Rasmus story from Wednesday’s paper has made the rounds.

It’s clear the Cardinals expect him to make a push for the major-league roster at some point in time this coming season. Could be spring. Could be June. Several scouts I spoke to said he’d benefit from some time in Triple-A to improve his strike-zone awareness — meaning he needs some savvy before he goes up against the veteran pitchers and the tight big-league strike zone he’ll see in the majors.

Come March, it will be up to Tony La Russa of course, but the plan is to get Rasmus ample playing time in the 1 o’clock games to see what he can do. How different is this: Ankiel is the known quantity coming in. Rasmus  gets the test drive.

In reporting the Rasmus story there was a lot that didn’t fit in the paper, and I’ve received some emails asking for the statistics  left on the cutting room floor. So, while the little man naps and the snow continues to fall here’s some additional Rasmus tidbits (specifically statistically) and other nuggets of note …

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As mentioned in the article, Rasmus is the Cardinals organization’s Player of the  Year for the second consecutive season. P.J. Walters is the Pitcher of the Year, having  leapfrogged three levels in one summer and finishing the year in Double-A. Overall, he went 12-6 with a 2.55 ERA  and his changeup might just be the best one going in the system. Both Rasmus and Walters are expected to attend Winter Warm-Up and receive their awards at the annual Baseball Writers Dinner on Jan. 21.

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Figure Rasmus might be signing some autographs this year.

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In the story it discussed how Rasmus’ .932 OPS stacked up against others in Double-A for the past three seasons, and how rare it is for a player of his age to put a number of that size at a level like that. What was left out of the article — so as not to clutter it — was some of the others who have put up an OPS like that (or better) at 20 (or younger) at Double-A (or higher).

Colby Rasmus, OF … 2007/20 … .932/AA … ???

Check out some of the players who have (year/age … OPS/level … next season):

Miguel Cabrera, 3B/OF … 2003/20 … 1.040/AA … MLB regular

Eric Chavez, 3B … 1998/20 … .992/AA, AAA … MLB

Cliff Floyd, OF … 1993/20 … .926/AA, AAA … MLB regular

Juan Gonzalez, OF … 1989/19 … .848/AA … AAA regular, MLB cup

Jose Canseco, OF … 1985/20 … 1.070ish/AA, AAA … MLB regular

– At 20, Canseco had a 1.145 OPS in AA before promotion. And according to his book that was before he started artificially inflating. That prompts the question … Why? –

Vladimir Guerrero, OF … 1996/20 … 1.041/AA … MLB regular

Andruw Jones, OF … 1996/19 … 1.070/A, AA, AAA … MLB regular

– Only after he made that stirring debut in World Series. –

Chipper Jones, SS … 1992/20 … .966/AA … AAA regular

Paul Konerko, 1B  … 1996/20 … .940/AA, AAA … AAA regular

Derrek Lee, 1B … 1996/20 … .933/AA … AAA regular

Gary Sheffield, SS/3B … 1988/19 … .974/AA, AAA … MLB regular

– Some of that happened just down the road here at Mile High Stadium where Sheffield was the Greatest Prospect Ever playing for the Zephyrs. –

Larry Walker,  OF … 1987/20 …  .917/AA … AAA  regular

Derek Jeter, SS … 1994/20 … .945/AA, AAA … AAA regular  

– And of course  … –

Alex Rodriguez, SS … 1995/19 … 1.063/AAA … MLB regular

There are  some others, but you get the  gist of it. Heady company for Rasmus at his age and that level — but no clear indicator of where he’s headed for  the next season. Some of the above players jumped successfully to the majors (Cabrera), others needed another  year or so to steep. Some bounced back and forth for a bit before emerging as major-league regulars.  The stat is an indicator, not a promise.

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A scout I spoke to compared Rasmus defensively to Grady Sizemore, Steve Finley and Jim Edmonds. The scout said when all of the tools are considered Rasmus belongs somewhere in that spectrum. We’ve looked at this before with the Prospect SAT. And then the scout, one of the people who believes Rasmus needs to start the year in Triple-A said, that Rasmus is a lot like Sizemore, save for one thing:

Rasmus “has a little more giddy-up in his bat when it comes to power.”

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Rasmus finished second in the Texas League in total bases with 260. The tops was 261. But Rasmus had 24 more walks than the leader (and 28 more strikeouts).

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Went looking for a better way to  properly gauge the season Rasmus had in context and a  person I know who is quite fluent with numbers offered up the following data: Players who were  within a year of Rasmus’ age who  had  the same kind of run production as Rasmus at Double-A (give/take five runs).

The list (Player, Pos. … Year/Age … BA/OB/SLG … OPS … HR/RBI/R):

Colby Rasmus, OF … 2007/20 … .275/.381/.551 … .932 … 29/32/93

Guillermo Quiroz,  C … 2003/21 … .282/.360/.518 … .878 … 20/79/63

– Recently signed by Baltimore to be the backup catcher, Quiroz has 100 major-league at-bats in the past four seasons and a .220 career average. He has yet to hit a  homer in the big-leagues and his longest stretch of  time in the majors came in 2004 with Toronto. –

Johnny Damon, OF … 1995/21 … .343/.433/.534 … .967 … 16/54/83

– Went to the majors the next season and hasn’t been back to the minors since. A two-time All-Star, author, Idiot, so on and so forth. –

Manny Ramirez, OF … 1993/21 … .340/.416/.581 … .997 … 17/79/67

– Manny has been being Manny for years. An 11-star All-Star, nine-time Silver Slugger, who has inexplicably yet to win an MVP award. –

Juan Encarnacion, OF … 1997/21 … .323/.377/.560 … .937 … 26/90/91

– Underappreciated Cardinal who was valuable to the Dodgers, Marlins, Cardinals, etc., because he could be counted on to produce the same, steady line of offense every season. No great  numbers, just steady good ones. His career  is in jeopardy because of an eye injury.  At last check, his vision had returned slightly, but not  nearly enough to play again. –

Carlos Delgado, 1B …  1993/21 … .303/.428/.524 … .952 … 25/102/91

– Two-time All-Star and three-time Silver Slugger. Took his run of consecutive seasons with 40 homers to the New York Mets. –

Evan Longoria, 3B … 2007/21 … .307/.403/.528 … .931 … 21/76/78

– Set to be this year’s blend of Alex Gordon and Ryan Braun – able to leap to the majors without a stop in Triple-A and bound to rake with the best of the rookies this coming year. Lots of people are excited about the bat this third baseman has and he’s already the Rookie of the Year favorite in the American League. –

Tony Mota, OF … 1999/21 … .325/.396/.557 … .953 … 15/75/65

– Son of major-leaguer Manny Mota. He played eight seasons and more than 700 games in the minors, but never had a plate appearance in the majors. His 1999 season saw a dramatic spike in his power (career highs in homers and doubles, including 15 homers when he had never hit more than nine). Last played in organized pro ball in 2004. –

Jack Cust, OF … 2000/21 … .293/.440/.521 … .966 … 20/75/100

– Spent the next seven years in Triple-A, cranking out the homers. Cracked the majors this season as a DH/OF for the Oakland A’s. Was a sensation, akin to Rick Ankiel. Recently ran into the same kind of press as Ankiel, too. Cust is mentioned in the Mitchell Report as one of the players Larry Bigbie  claims acknowledged the use of steroids. Cust is dening it, sort of. Really, his lawyer is denying it for Cust.

– Does anybody talk for themselves these days? No, I mean without a script written for them? –

– Maybe I should get this blog lawyered up. –

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There were two players mentioned in the article as having recently made the leap from Texas League to  major league in recent seasons — Kansas City’s Alex Gordon and Colorado’s Troy Tulowitzki. For the sake of comparison, here is there stats from that  final season  in the minors, done in the same style as above:  

Tulowitzki, SS … 2006/21 … .291/.370/.473 … .843 … 13/61/75

– Struggled early in the majors with a .244 average in April. Was hitting .188 on April 27. Had the glove to keep him in the lineup and he eventually spurred the Rockies to the NL pennant. Was deserving of the Gold Glove and finished second in the ROY voting. (Though he got my first-place vote.) –

Gordon, 3B … 2006/22  … .325/.427/.588 … 1.016 … 29/101/111

– Nebraska star had his fits and starts during his big-league debut. Was hitting .173 on June 6. Spent some time bouncing in an out of the lineup. Had a .472 slugging percentage in season’s second half. –

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If Rasmus starts the season in Triple-A and does not appear the majors before the Olympics he is on the short list to be a member of Team USA in the Beijing Summer Games. His performance in the recent international tournament in Taiwan solidified it. As the U.S. leadoff hitter, he lead the team with extra-base hits, walks and hits. He had a hit in every game and slugged .706.

His inside-the-park home run? It was the other way, past the left fielder.

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So, do all these numbers and anecdotes give a clear as crystal ball view of what awaits the Cardinals as they try him out for the majors in 2008? Not quite. What all this means is Rasmus had a tremendous season for Double-A Springfield. As mentioned in the article,  Rasmus’ .932 was the 22nd time a player has had an OPS better than .900 in the past three seasons at the Double-A level.

Not once in the 22 was the player as young as Rasmus, however.  

Yet connecting high OPS — or even run production — to major-league success is tricky. Some gaudy hitters have not been moved or been successful when moved. Defense is critical, but so is opportunity and consistency. It fits nicely then that  nine times in the 22 mentioned above and in the article had better OPS than Rasmus, but not all have bounded in the majors. That brings us neatly to …

THE LINEUP

Better Double-A OPS than Rasmus since 2005

Or, I played in Double-A, had this tremendous OPS and all I got for it was a mention in this Cardinals blog and my big-league future is still cloudy …

1. Justin Huber, KC, 1B/OF … 1.002 OPS in 2005 at 22. Has 98 big-league at-bts in the past three seasons. Spent most of 2007 in Triple-A 18 homers and a .853 OPS.
2. Nate Gold, TEX, 1B … .958 OPS in 2006 at 26. Has 60 home runs and 206 RBIs in his past two seasons. Has zero major-league at-bats in his career.
3. Alex Gordon, KC, 3B … 1.016 OPS in 2006 at 22. Mentioned above.
4. Chase Headley, SD, 3B … 1.016 OPS in 2007 at 23. Edged Rasmus for the Texas League MVP award and led his Missions to the league championship against Rasmus’ Springfield team. Headley is reportedly going to go to spring training with the chance to win playing time in left field for the Padres. He has been given the same adjective by the Padres as Rasmus has with the Cardinals this offseason: Untouchable.
5. Randy Ruiz, PHI, OF/1B … 1.074 OPS in 2005 at 27. Has been with six different teams in the past five seasons. He’s had two stints with the Phillies. Has yet to make it to the majors.
6. Mike Jacobs, FLA, 1B  … .965 OPS in 2005 at 24. Was with the New York Mets’ Double-A affiliate at the time. Later was protected from a demotion to the minors by Pedro Martinez and has since been dealt to Florida in the Delgado trade. Jacobs has at least 420 at-bats in the majors in the past two seasons, hitting .268 with 48 homers and a big-league OPS of .817.
7. Michel Abreu, NYM, 1B … .935 OPS in 2006 at 27. Fascinating story here. In his only pro season in this country, Abreu popped 17 homers in nearly 400 at-bats for the Mets’ Double-A team. Didn’t play in 2007, but according to the Daily News’ Adam Rubin has the paperwork to come back for this summer.
8. Josh Whitesell, WSH, 1B … .937 OPS in 2007 at 25. One of only two with a better than OPS than Rasmus this season.  Also like Rasmus, has yet to have an at-bat at a level higher than Double-A. Spent three seasons at A level.
9. Tyler Minges, BOS, OF … .956 OPS in 2005 at 25. Name ought to ring a bell because he did this OPS for the Cardinals’  Double-A affiliate. Had 19 homers and 60 RBIs while scoring 98 runs for Springfield. Signed  by the Red Sox  as a minor-league free agent after that season.  … Has yet to appear in the majors.

And the  little slugger is still napping. Success.

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