There’s something about Santana
DOWNTOWN — Thanks to the writers’ strike, the best ongoing drama we’ve had this winter is “Courting Johan”, a reality TV series featuring heavy favorites and what is likely to be a surprise ending with a blockbuster payout.
There even was a cameo appearance by the local club.
You might have missed it.
It was early on, perhaps even in the pilot episode, when the Cardinals called the Minnesota Twins to ask if there was a chance they could enter the rose ceremony for the lefty starter and two-time Cy Young winner, Johan Santana. The Twins outlined their wishes — everyday position player, a couple pitchers, all premiums — and, in the words of Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak, “it was clear we didn’t line up.”
Kudos for his candor.
That quote comes from the Winter Warm-up, where a fan asked Mozeliak about the Cardinals and Santana and why they didn’t have a larger role in the sweepstakes won this week by the New York Mets. Mozeliak said he made the approach (”due diligence,” is his phrase) and couldn’t make a match. There was an attempt, he said, but “there wasn’t a fit.”
And that was before the club had to talk extension and $150 million with the pitcher.
The Mets are in the middle of negotiating probably the richest deal ever for a starting pitcher right now, and when it’s completed they will send a package of four prospects to the Twins. Guaranteeing a pitcher to a six- or seven-year deal is always a tricky venture, especially when it is backloaded with massive salaries in the years when there is massive risk on his health. So, money aside, the prospect side of the deal has been met with similar refrains:
- “We Get Who?”, from The Pioneer Press.
- Fleeced, from Jeff Blair of The Globe and Mail.
- Luckiest Bounce since Buckner, from Dan Graziano of Newark’s Star-Ledger.
- “Santana Deal Rocks Cubs”, from Greg Couch at Chicago Sun-Times.
Locally, there’s been the question on why the Cardinals didn’t have the horses to pony up a similar package. If the four prospects the Mets gave up could be matched by the Cardinals’ farm system, was the extension really the rub? Perhaps. But the prospects weren’t as shabby as advertised, and the Cardinals probably couldn’t match the foursome the Mets are sending to the AL Central.
True, New York did not give up its top prospect — outfielder Fernando Martinez, who made a mighty impression on the media a year ago in Port St. Lucie – but it did give Minnesota an instant infusion of talent. Following the wish list given the Cardinals, the Twins got their everyday player (outfielder Chris Gomez), their blue-chip pitching prospect (RHP Deolis Guerra), the steady stock pitcher (RHP Kevin Mulvey), and the lotto ticket (RHP Philip Humber). It might be even more than the list given the Cardinals, but not as much as early reports professed.
Kevin Goldstein, minor-league guru for Baseball Prospectus, had to reorder his Top 11 for the Minnesota Twins because of the trade. The Twins had three new members to Goldstein’s top five, and Mulvey came in at No. 8. The list of players the Twins will get and where the ranked in New York’s Baseball America list and, listed second, Goldstein’s new Twins list:
- OF Gomez … BA (NY) 3, KG (MN) 1, four-star prospect
- RHP Guerra … BA (NY) 2, KG (MN) 2, four-star prospect
- RHP Mulvey … BA (NY) 4, KG (MN) 8
- RHP Humber … BA (NY) 7, KG (MN) 5
Using the previous blog entry about the Cardinal Top 30s, try lining up similar prospects to make this trade. Try again. It doesn’t work. Colby Rasmus maybe better than Gomez, but after that? Jaime Garcia is similar and possibly better than Humber. There isn’t a Guerra comp I can think of, not one who pitched well enough to earn praise from scouts at 18 in A-ball.
Please, offer up suggestions in the comments below. Maybe I’m missing something.
The Santana deal gave way to the pursuit of Erik Bedard, the other lefty on the block — way more than a consolation prize for the pitching-hungry teams out there. Bedard’s local paper gave a nice sketch of the overshadowed ace. Seattle is reportedly going to give a nice packet of players (not just prospects) over for the lefthander. Like the list above:
- OF Adam Jones … Ranked No. 1 by BA last year; 139 MLB AB.
- LHP George Sherrill … Lefty specialist who held opponents to .179 average.
- RHP Chris Tillman … BA 3 … KG 2, four-star
- RHP Kim Mickolio* … BA 18
- LHP Tony Butler* … BA 12 … KG 8, two-star
The deal has stalled (* – prospects who are potentially involved), and that has caused a lot of speculation as to why. Some have said the Orioles are trying to work out an 11th-hour extension for the player who submitted $8 million for his arbitration hearing, a $2-million difference from Baltimore’s counter. The Baltimore Sun has reported that owner Peter Angelos did not pull the plug and that other teams are involved.
Again, it’s the Cardinals with a cameo.
Bedard intrigued the Cardinals earlier this winter, and with the news that other teams are interested that forced the question: Are the Cardinals one? The answer may be in the prospects. Again. From Cincinnati, the Orioles reportedly demanded that Jay Bruce be in the package. We’ve written in here before about the similarities of Bruce and Rasmus. That’s a non-starter for the Cardinals. Sherrill could be Tyler Johnson … and then? Tillman is Garcia. Butler is … Mitchell Boggs?
The deal would seem to fizzle from its key component: Jones.
The 22-year-old center fielder — who threw 96 mph as a high school pitcher — could be the best player involved in either of the above deals. The best player today. Today. Many believe Rasmus will surpass him. But Jones will play this year, at 22, and be several years away from arbitration, to boot. That’s unlike any player the Cardinals have to offer.
In a thread over at Cards Talk last week, I was asked if I’d rather have the Cardinals’ farm system or Seattle’s system. The Bedard deal, as reported, gives an answer. The Mariners have a system that makes this deal possible. The Cardinals have a system that is probably deeper with contributors, but not stars, not deal-makers. Not now.
Play the match game and see if there’s a deal, as Mozeliak said, “lines up.”
Do the due diligence.
And use Goldstein’s stars a map to an answer. Soon he’ll release his Cardinals Top 11, and in an email to me today, Goldstein wrote that the Cardinals will have one five-star prospect and two four-star prospects. Wonder who the five-star prospect is. The four-stars might be a surprise to some. All three rank in Goldstein’s Top 100, which came out today over at BP.
Actually they rank in the top 75. Goldstein ranks them, thusly:
8. Colby Rasmus, OF
69. Chris Perez, RHP
72. Bryan Anderson, C
That there is even a question who the two four-stars are is a sign of the improvement the Cardinals have made to their farm system. But it’s not yet enough to enter the bidding for the above pitchers.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
Patience… it’s going to take a few years of good drafts for the Cardinals to rebuild the farm system. With the incredible cost of league-average pitching on the free-agent market, clubs not based in New York or Boston are going to have to develop pitchers from their minor-league systems… and that takes time.
Besides, the games aren’t played on paper, anyway… Can the Cardinals compete in the NL Central? Yeah… Would I like to have J. Santana or Bedard? Sure, but it ain’t happening!
The last two seasons, the Mets lost Game 7 of the NLCS AT HOME and pulled one of the biggest “El Foldos” since the ‘64 Phillies last year. Like everybody else, they’ve still got issues…