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02.19.2008 10:05 am

Decision 2008: Starting Rotation Redux

JUPITER, Fla. — No need to dress this up with campaign buttons and bumper stickers. You know the candidates. After the past few days, you certainly are well versed in the issues (See: Miklasz, Bernie).  The Cardinals’ starting rotation has two openings and four leading candidates, one of whom — Matt Clement – has had what the manager agreed was a setback this week.

The Cardinals believe they can get through April and all the way to Mark Mulder’s return by using a four-man rotation and a cameo fifth starter. That could be either of the relievers they see as long men — Todd Wellemeyer, Brad Thompson.

But we’ve seen this movie before. In 2007.

(Aside: The Cardinals added a lefty long reliever today to the roster: Ron Villone.)

While it will be clearer in early March when Clement and Mulder will be available, there are a lot of innings the Cardinals will have to fill and no obvious arms to do it. On the day ace Adam Wainwright first throws to batters (a group that includes Colby Rasmus, Amaury Marti and Brian Barton), back come the Cardinals Nation primaries and your chance to select the rotation from the following ballot:

(Will fill in as a I publish this.)

***

MATT CLEMENT, RHP: Clement holds out hope that he can get back on his regular program and still make his target of being ready opening day — or more precisely for his first scheduled start that week. At his best, Clement had two seasons where he struck out more batters than innings pitched, and he has been a groundball machine. Thank the sinker (groundball) and slider (K) combination that he strayed from because of his shoulder injury forced him to adopt a cutter he could better control. Arm strength is the biggest concern, but it isn’t the only factor for the pitching coach. Dave Duncan would also like to see Clement get in some competitive situations when he has his max arm strength. That could mean a few rehab-assignment starts in the minors before he joins the rotation.  

ANTHONY REYES, RHP: Has already muttered the standard February line of being in the best shape of his career. Went 2-14 with 5.71 ERA in 20 starts.

BRAD THOMPSON, RHP: Went 6-4 with a 4.66 ERA in 17 starts. It should be noted that of the three pitchers listed here he averaged the most innings per start of any of them — a stat to note considering his presence in the rotation means one less long man in the bullpen to sop up all those innings. Is working on a curve to give his sinker company.

TODD WELLEMEYER, RHP: Went 3-1 with a 3.65 ERA in 11 starts for the Cardinals. Stopped tipping pitches and excelled once he joined the team as a waiver pickup from Kansas City. The coaches like his power arm but also rave about his changeup. Came up as a starter in the minors and is eager to claim a starting job because he believes he’s better when he gets in that rhythm. Like Thompson, he couldd make the team in the bullpen as well.

INDEPENDENTS: This is the group of free agents that are still out there, which include RHP Jeff Weaver, RHP Kyle Lohse, RHP Josh Fogg and a few health questions. The Cardinals are not convinced that at their price they are better than what is on hand — though there should be something said for having done the job before, and handled consistent innings — and that signing a free agent wouldn’t leave them with an expensive ejection when the injured starters return.

GREEN PARTY CANDIDATES: This would be the youngsters who have been brought into camp for experience but suddenly find innings open for their audition. LHP Jaime Garcia, RHP Mitchell Boggs, RHP Mike Parisi, and the newcomer to the group RHP Kyle McClellan. The righthanded reliever who had a breakout 2007 is shifting to a starter’s program and will get stretched out with the idea of seeing if he and his four pitches can develop/compete as a starter. 

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9 comments

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Am I the only person who thinks this cardinal season, could play out like the Cleveland Indians in “Major Legue”?……..

We don’t have a Wild Thing in the bullpen, but we do have Ankiel in the outfiled and
We don’t have and aging catcher, but we do have Juan Gonzales.
Also we have some known stars and several unknowns (or hasbeens) trying to make it.

— ted
12:16 pm February 19th, 2008

DG,

About your article on starting pitching, you said “… and that signing a free agent wouldn’t leave them with an expensive ejection when the injured starters return.”

You might want to amend that to ‘if’ the starting pitchers return.

Additionally, I have been watching MLB for going on 40 years now and I can’t remember a team ever really, truly being in the position that it said, “You know, we just have too much terrific starting pitching on this team. We need to figure out how to ditch a couple of them.”
If there really is someone in the Cards organization that sees that as a pending, realistic organizational concern, I just have to question their acumen.

Has there ever been a dollar better spent than a dollar spent on good starting pitching? That is a question that the quants in this business might want to consider.

— Joe G
12:16 pm February 19th, 2008

DG,
I’ll add another candidate from the “Bleed Red Party” that’s already in camp - Cliff Politte.
He came up thru the Cards organization as a starter. What are the odds on him converting back to a starter’s role?

Another member of his party that might get consideration is John Wasdin.

— Mike Hobson
1:31 pm February 19th, 2008

C’mon Dewitt!….knock the dust off your wallet and bring back Weaver! Dunc can get him back on track…….cause he did it before. And besides, the Cards fans would love it! Sign him…

— D.
1:57 pm February 19th, 2008

DG,
What are the chances of the Cardinals signing Lohse? Deserved or not, this guy was supposed to be one of the top free agents this winter, and he must have been humbled enough to take a one year deal by this point. He’s gotta be better than some of these guys we’re counting on - at least he’s been a starter his entire career instead of two years!

— Max
2:34 pm February 19th, 2008

Blake Hawksworth dropped out of the race? I could see him as a darkhorse Green Party candidate.

Blake certainly has the talent. Its just a matter of consistency with him.

— Pete
2:45 pm February 19th, 2008

Don’t know much about Mortenson other than Duncan rated his session the other day as a ‘Whoa!” Or was that a ‘Woo!’ Either which was good, I think. Is he a guy that can go seven innings?

Seems like anyone trying out for a SP position ought to be thinking about getting their arm in shape quickly since the job is wide open the first two months or so. The field is playing out to be more crowded the second half of the season - at least we hope it will be.

I also think that the Pineiro is going to be a very pleasant surprise on the upside.

— Joe G
3:46 pm February 19th, 2008

Brutal on Reyes, but probably dead on. Wellemeyer has pitched well, so probably deserves & probably will get it, but there’s something about having two bullpen-ers in teh starting rotation that makes me uncomfortable. My vote goes to Mr Thompson, who is also a bullpener but really was a starter in the minors & should be again. I vote for him for teh same reasons I voted for Mike Huckabee, not because I think he will win, but because I vote idealistically in the hope that something will “catch on.” Poor, blind fool that I am. Go Brad!

— Doug
10:13 pm February 19th, 2008

@ Joe G–

The problem is that the starting pitching available isn’t all that good. Of the three guys Goold mentioned–

Lohse is extraordinary overrated, which is why nobody has signed him yet, prefering to add pitching by trades. We’re talking about a pitcher that went 9-12 with a division champion and had a 4.62 ERA . Not completely horrible in this day and age, but far from being a legit “top free agent starter.” If he comes on a one-year, $5 million deal, yeah, but that’s not what he’s been asking.

Weaver was bad in his time with the Cardinals until the playoffs and bad after he left. He’s a decent innings eater when he’s on, but he’s always been a headcase and horribly erratic. The Cardinals should be interested only if they were really desperate (i.e., Reyes, Thompson, and Wellemeyer all disappear in the wee hours of the morning, never to be seen again, and Mo winds up trading the top three pitching prospects for a utility infielder).

Fogg is a soft-throwing, below-average, back-of-the-rotation starter (he had a worse season than Looper, in fact). Plus, he’s not a durable innings-eating pitcher, which is someone the Cards should be looking for. It’d be a bad match, even given the Cardinals’ current uncertain starting rotation.

None of these guys are worth the money they’re asking , and with some of the odds and ends the Cardinals have in camp, they probably have the same talent, just younger and cheaper. St. Louis is in a transition season (although an attempted competitive one), trying to figure out what they have in younger players and veterans returning from injury. Which means you have to let them play rather than replace them before they have a chance. For the long-term health of the franchise, this is a necessary season, especially when you’re dealing with a 25-man roster, a 40-man protected roster, and a whole lot of average depth in the system with some interesting prospects. What they find out this season will determine the direction of the Cardinals for the next five to seven years.

— Forsch31
12:14 pm February 20th, 2008
Derrick Goold