Decisions 2008: Who’s in your outfield?
TOWER GROVE — Three years ago, the Cardinals were coming off a World Series appearance and on their way to the second of three consecutive NLCS berths. They boasted a veteran-laden lineup and a highly-decorated outfield.
Injuries limited the number of games the trio of planned starters played together, but when Reggie Sanders and Larry Walker flanked Jim Edmonds in the Cardinal outfield they carried a combined 33 playoff series, 10 All-Star Games, one MVP, 15 Gold Gloves and four Silver Sluggers out there. They also had the age needed to collect all that hardware:
- LF, Sanders … 37
- CF, Edmonds … 35
- RF, Walker … 38
This spring the Cardinals start with little in the outfield but … potential.
In an article for today’s paper, I gave an introductory tour of the candidates and favorites to fill the three open spots in the outfield. As I wrote the article it reminded of last year’s starting rotation casting call and how the Cardinals had to sort five, si candidates in three, four openings. Sure there are some obvious leaders (Chris Duncan in left; Rick Ankiel somewhere). There are also just as obvious intrigue (Colby Rasmus to be sure; Juan Gonzalez).
There is also the obvious absence.
There isn’t an outfielder coming to spring training with the Cardinals that had 400 at-bats in the majors last year. The two leaders — Duncan’s 375 and Ryan Ludwick’s 303 — are both players with less than 1 1/2 seasons of major-league experience. More striking than those numbers, was this possible starting outfield:
- LF, Duncan … Age: 26
- CF, Rasmus … Age: 21
- RF, Ankiel … Age: 28
If that is the trio of outfielders that the Cardinals finish the season with, then in the span of four seasons they will have dropped a dozen years from their average age.
Trying to recover from the lowest-rated Bird Land ever, we continue to the Cardinals spring training primaries — Decisions (in) 2008 – by asking who should start in the outfield? Should the need for a leadoff hitter be considered here? Can an all-lefty outfield work? Will Tony La Russa use one? Does Gonzalez fit? Here’s the ballot:
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RICK ANKIEL, CF/RF, from the left: There’s really no need for lengthy bios on these candidates because they are so well known by now. Ankiel has raw power and could be an exciting source of 20-homer-plus offense. He also packs the best arm of any of the outfielders. No surprise there. At the end of last season, La Russa said he was excited to see what Ankiel could do in center field if there was an opportunity. He’ll be a starter. Where is the only question.
BRIAN BARTON, CF/RF/LF, from the right: Quite literally the rocket scientist of the group, who just finished up a semester of classes that included an advanced-level course on propulsion of something and yadda-dynamics. He had knee surgery to repair what he has described as a clicking sensation that’s bothered him for several seasons. He insisted that it didn’t inhibit his performance, but for a player lauded for his tools and especially his speed any knee injury — and any knee surgery — is a concern. The surgery was enough to allow Barton to slip to the Cardinals in the Rule 5 draft. They feel they have good intel on his condition and he said in December he was out running sprints, full bore, no problems. With the exception of his first taste of Triple-A, Barton has a standout stat: a better than .400 on-base percentage at every level, in every previous season. As a Rule 5 pick, like Hector Luna and Juan Mateo before him, Barton has to spend the entire season on the 25-man roster for the Cardinals win complete control of his rights. His injury makes for an interesting detour for the Cardinals — they could take a longer look at him after spring by sending him off on a rehab assignment.
JUAN GONZALEZ, LF/RF, from the right: La Russa wants to see if the former MVP and Hack Wilson pursuer is the righthanded bat he wants for his bench and perhaps more. Eduardo Perez says “Igor” is in great shape and rejuvenated health and less prickly demeanor. Jose Oquendo and Yadier Molina gave their thumbs up after seeing Gonzalez take batting practice. Albert Pujols was also there, and said this:
“Did we sign him yet? He looks really good, man. He’s got real bat speed. He’s real healthy now. We chattted for a little bit: ‘Hopefully, you get the opportunity to play and we get to talk more and workout together in spring training.’”
When Gonzalez played in winter ball he didn’t put up eye-catching power numbers, so there’s no guarantee the bat still has its charge. As Texas-bred assistant sports editor Cameron Hollway pointed out Gonzalez spent most of his career in right field; I was told he could be a better bet in left now. That fits the description given repeatedly to the Cardinals about Juan Gone No More: “He’s a new man.”
RYAN LUDWICK, RF/LF/CF, from the right: The incumbent on the right side of this contest. Proved deft at the corner spots last season and adept enough at center to make a few cameos there. His power is intriguing. His 14 home runs was the third most on the team. His 110 OPS+ — which is based against the league average — was third-best on the team among players who had at least 100 games. Looking over his numbers it’s doesn’t seem unreasonable to expect Juan Encarnacion-like production from Ludwick, making him a natural replacement for … Encarnacion.
COLBY RASMUS, CF, from the left: Well-covered ground here. Cardinals believe he’s going to be in the big leagues some time in 2008, unless sidetracked by injuries. That could be opening day. That could be July 11. Has a coveted blend of tools that include speed, instinct, developing power and polished athleticism. Scouts who saw him in Double-A and a few opposing managers I spoke to in the Texas League believe he is major-league-ready with his glove right now. That glove could keep him in the lineup in center while he learns his way at the plate. The Cardinals are keen not to put too much pressure on the kid, saying they don’t need him to make the major-league roster out of spring.
True. But they sure would like him to.
SKIP SCHUMAKER, CF/RF/LF, from the left: Always seems to be an underdog this time of year and 40, 50 days later is on the opening day roster. Is arguably the most gifted defensive player of the group, with Rasmus his only true rival and he doesn’t have the experience. Schumaker has the makings of a .300 hitter, though he could walk more and use his speed more. May have the inside track on being the leadoff hitter early on for the Cardinals because they can play him in right field in a platoon, or in left or center when needed. The twist this spring for Schumaker is he’s playing to catch attention from every other team as well. Schumaker is out of options and will have to pass through waivers if the Cardinals try to send him to the minors. That could land him with another team in the role he’s no longer content to have — fourth or fifth outfielder.
“I haven’t done anything,” he said. ”I’ve had one good year of 200 at-bats or whatever it was. That’s nothing compared to the guys on our team who have done a lot over a number of years. I still have a lot ot prove. One year doesn’t mean that I’m just set in stone and I’m on this team.”
Other candidates coming to camp include … LF/RF Joe Mather, LF/RF Nick Stavinoha, LF/RF Amaury Marti and LF Cody Haerther.
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Coming Monday: Let the marathon begin — the first dispatch from Jupiter.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
Ankiel, Duncan and Skip to start the season. Luddy and Barton in reserve. By the end of July, after getting their feet wet in AAA, bring up Gonzo and Rasmus and move Luddy and Skip in a trade. I don’t really understand the problem of starting three lefties in the OF since there will be at least 4 righties starting in the infield/catcher. Tony likes to run the lefty/righty/lefty type of line-up to force opposing managers to use up relief pitchers quicker. Even with Kennedy at 2B, that doesn’t completely mess up the starting line-up.
This was a better exercise than the second base question. Second base plus shortstop might have been a better survey question.
Keep up the good work. Get your bags packed. It is only a short few more days.
We are looking forward to your coverage this year Derrick.
Ankiel is a shoe in with his great arm and speed plus power. Duncan will work for now for the simple fact that his bat could prove useful. My wild card is Barton if he is healthy he beats out shumaker, juan, and ludwick. The trick is keep Colby down for two reasons one let him warm up on the triple-A pitchers, we know he is the future and I am sorry but this year is a re-tooling with next year a for sure run at the division title, also keep him down so that juan, ludwick, skip and possibly earn some value when that cardinals can trade for a top of the line starter or more prospects. The team really only needs five of these guys for this year and next the others are becoming nice trading pieces. 2009- rasmus, ankiel, barton, duncan, and skip those are the ones worth keeping.
your thoughts DG
With the cardinals needing not only a potential outfielder and lead-off hitter but also smart base-running and potential steals, WHY didn’t they consider Scott Posednik???!!! The guy has been a proven lead-off hitter at the major league level and signed for a MINOR league contract with the Rockies!!!
skip leading off because it’s a year of turnover where the cards try to reinvent themselves and he’s earned a shot by doing the job whenever called on. he can use his speed and maybe sweet talk lou brock for some instruction. he always hits for average and with the defined roll of leadoff, he should become more selective at the plate. also since he can hit from the left side, he should become a better bunter which i think is a lost art and lots of teams are vulnerable to a drag bunt. i think if he’s shown some loyalty and direction, be will be a pleasant surprise.
and of course, duncan in left and ankiel in right. ludwick, barton on the bench. gonzales could be the find of the century. or if his bat still has pop but his legs do not, maybe a trade chip for a team who needs a dh. colby can mature at aaa. this outfield group is capable of anything from three 250 hitters to a truly formidable quartet. i think no matter who starts, the outfield is just too deep not to find plenty of at bats for five guys.
as spring training draws nearer, i am getting jazzed by this year’s team. it’s young and talented. i would like to see the cards sigh hernandez or some proven innings eater. he wants two years and surely he can be productive for two more years, even if delegated to the long relief role.
cards look deep in areas and woefully short in others. i think mo has done well in his first year, but i don’t understand why so hesitant on pitchers? the team claims they have money to spend. there are still some bargains out there, guys with good resumes coming off injuries. why not throw a bunch against the wall and see if any stick? it’s not as if these fringe arms are going to hold back any of the young talent in the organization. so, kip wells failed. pinero did well. maroth failed but what about percival? mo needs to take a chance.
though, overall i’m pretty positive going into spring because this team is full of potential and it will be fun to watch these young guys develop. besides, it will be kind of nice, as a fan, to go into a season with low expectations. sets you up real nice for surprises.
“Looking over his numbers it’s doesn’t seem unreasonable to expect Juan Encarnacion-like production from Ludwick, making him a natural replacement for … Encarnacion.”
I strongly disagree with this comparison. Ludwick is a much better defender than Encarnacion in RF; probably on the order of 2 wins. He’s also a much better hitter. Just looking at his end-of-year stats is misleading, since he was so awful his first 3 weeks with the team; but after that he adjusted and put up a perfectly respectable .356 OBP with an .880 OPS- and .383/.908 after July 1st. I’d be very surprised to see his ‘08 OBP under .360. A better comparison for Ludwick’s upside would be Carlos Lee (career .841 OPS/114 OPS+), not Juan Encarnacion, except that Ludwick can actually field his position.
Duncan LF, Ankiel CF, Skip RF. Ludwick and Barton off the Bench. I think the Cardinals should do their best to give Rasmus one more full year in AAA and to keep Barton on the main roster as long as he’s not worthless. Ludwick is a decent player but I doubt he’s much of a future contributor. If things go to plan Ludwick will be decent for us this season and we’ll let him go in the post season as we’re ready for Rasmus to take “Center” stage. Next year we’ll have a Duncan, Rasmus, Ankiel outfield with Barton and Skip off the bench. Thats all speculation before injuries or poor performance are factored in.
Gonzo is left out. We’re done as a veteran heavy club. Just with the center infield situation and D’Angelo Jimenez we should hope that those two perform well enough to push the real contenders. But they don’t factor in to any Major League time.
I don’t understand the Juan Gonzalez thing. He clearly belongs with an AL team where he can DH. He’s sort of like Frank Thomas or John Jaha on, er, steroids. Even in a best-case scenario, he’ll lose a lot of ABs in St. Louis due to being a defensive liability. This team is already downgrading defensively from last year. I’d even rather sign Sammy Sosa, who’s still available. Not that I actually want Sosa, but he would have more to offer.
There are so many better options available. For a team without a leadoff hitter, Shannon Stewart wouldn’t be the worst FA signing. He made $1 million last year and hasn’t been signed yet, so he comes cheap. He would actually be an affordable, right-handed substitute for Juan Encarnacion, with a little less power but a bit more speed, which is exactly what this team needs. Stewart hit .290 last year with a .345 OBP (.298/.362 career, both better than David Eckstein) and could be the best remaining option for leadoff or batting second. He’s not the strikeout machine that a lot of other available outfielders would be.
Is Marti only 32? I thought he was older.
The five I pick to leave Jupiter would be: Duncan, Ankiel, Schumacher, Ludwick, and Barton. Once Colby comes up, either Schumacher or Ludwick are gone. Barton stays unless he’s physically not ready or he’s horrible. I think they carry him because he can cover all three spots, he’s got a mix of speed and decent power + they have to give him back if he doesn’t make the team. Schumacher may edge out Ludwick for his leadoff ability. I’m not sold on Duncan as an everyday outfielder– but he may have some roster value to cover for the possibility that Pujols goes down (or elects surgery for his right elbow). Eventual outfield (2009?) will be Barton, Rasmus, Ankiel — left to right.
Schumacher needs to go. He has little league power. This is the major leagues! We need guys with upside, not the Bo Hart fan favorite quality. I would trade Schumacher for a 12 pack. Ankiel, Rasmus, and Duncan. Throw in Ludwick and Gonzalez for good lefty-righty balance when we face lefthanders.