i saw that brandon inge played short stop for the tigers today, who need someone in the bullpen. any chance that well worn trade route between detroit and st louis is in action? reyes and ? for inge? if he plays short well, what an upgrade!

Perhaps it’s just me, but isn’t 65 pitches in a pitcher’s first spring training start alittle much? (Kyle Lohse.) Given the current state of the Cardinals starting pitchers, their sore arms, shoulders, etc., I think a more conservative approach is needed with the starting staff and their phyical condition and a more limited pitch count for those who have not been in training camp all spring. All one needs to do is take a look at the injured and hurting pitchers they currently have.

DG,

What’s your take (sorry if you posted earlier, I didn’t see it), on the Reyes situation and comments? It seemed like Duncans comments were a little strong (being obvious to everyone…).

Why don’t they just let Reyes start? His spring hasn’t been terrible, his last outing was good and it seems like there is a double standard here. If someone else struggles in spring, no big deal its ST. If Reyes has a bad outing, then he isn’t starting in the majors? Regardless of options, hasn’t Reyes already proved to be unable to learn more at AAA? He dominates there and disappoints here. Maybe if all the stupid mind games stopped he could pitch better here.

This is finally a home-grown pitcher (i.e. cheap) with an upside. Maybe not as big as once perceived, but certainly better than the upside for Wellemeyer or Thompson.

Thompson does nothing for me. A sinkerballer who allowed a ton of home runs isn’t what I’m looking for. He’s at best a below average major league starter. Reyes has been that, but could be more.

Is a trade the next move?

Sorry two more questions I forgot during my diatribe about Reyes…

What’s the latest on Ryan’s injury? Will he be ready opening-day?

If not, any chance Mather is up instead of Jimenez to be a backup?

It seems that the last thing the Cards need is another light-hitting, low-OBP middle infielder… No thanks, we have plenty as it is.

Thanks again for the great coverage.

Brian,

It’s funny but if Thomspon is a “below average major league starter”, then that makes Reyes an even worse major league starting pitcher. Thompson in his 17 Starts last season had an ERA of 4.66 in 92.2 IP with a 6-4 record. Of the 17 games he started he went 6 innings or further in 10 of them had 9 of them be Quality Starts. Reyes’ had 20 Starts last season had an ERA of 5.71 in 104 IP with a 2-14 record. Of the 20 games he started he DIDN’T make it to the 6th inning in 12 of them and only 5 games of Quality Starts.

Oh, and if we are going to talk about long ball allowed. Brad allowed 14 as a Starter in 92.2 IP and Reyes allowed 15 in his 104. Thompson, also, still holds a AA record for consecutive scoreless innings (51?) from just a few seasons ago. So, why should a guy like Reyes continue to be given more opportunities over a guy who has proven he can do a better job in that spot?

Take the numbers that Thompson put up as a starter last season and spread them out over a whole season and you basically have Braden Looper without the $5.5 million contract.

Reyes needs to go back to AAA and learn how to finish putting hitters away, i.e. he needs to develop an “outpitch”.

Brian,

– It’s starting to look like Reyes is the classic change-of-scenery player, and, no, that scenery is not Memphis. There seems to be an interesting current running through Cardinals Nation, one that inflates how well Reyes has pitched and underestimates Thompson. The truth runs in the middle. And the Cardinals have sided with known quantity over glimmers of quality.

A trade may be the only way to really judge Reyes’ value, independent of all this history.

– The information Ryan is right up there in the blog entry.

– La Russa rejected that idea when I asked if Mather was back in the picture if Ryan is out for an extended term. One reason: Backup shortstop. The Cardinals would need one.

dg

I am glad to hear that Thompson is finally getting the chance he has deserved for 2 years. He has been a constant performer that may have some flaws, but he can get the job done. Reyes has been a huge dissappointment and I hope he will be let go. Reyes is too inconsistent to pitch in the majors and I predict that he will never be a quality starter. Maybe the bullpen is where he belongs (with another team)?

Derrick,

Thanks for the reply, sorry I missed the Ryan info.

Clevy, my comment about being below average for Thompson is true, the hope originally offered by Reyes was the one hitter against the White Sox and the WS start against the Tigers. Obviously he’s been below average (last year was absolutely horrendous), but he seems to have the potential to do more. Thompson doesn’t really have the stuff to be even middle of the rotation starter. Reyes might. Probably won’t in St. Louis. Maybe he’ll bomb elsewhere and wash out and never live up to the original hype and those two starts, but those two starts were about as good as they get.

I recall hearing on the radio two years ago a scout (or maybe someone quoting a scout?) saying Wainwright would be at best a 3rd starter, and Reyes could be a top of the rotation starter. Wow how things have changed.

My opinion on the whole matter is is tied my disgust with our current starting rotation.
We need 2nd, 3rd and 4th starters right now. Not 4 pitchers (Looper, Clement, Wellemeyer, Thompson) who should be at best 5th starters.

Reyes might not be the answer, but the fact that it looks like Wellemeyer might be our 2nd game starter is ludicrous. I’m fed up with Thompson, Wellemeyer et al. Retreads and never-will-bes don’t win games. Neither do any of our starters, except for Wainwright.

I’m too lazy to do the research (plus nobody is likely reading this anymore, as it’s gone beyond a comment and turned into it’s own blog post), but how many combined wins do you think Looper, Wainwright, Pineiro, Thompson, Wellemeyer, Reyes and others have? I’m guessing way less than a 100. Looper might be the leader there with all of his previous blown saves. And until (and “if” several times over) Carpenter, Mulder and Clement return, we have at best a AAAA rotation.

Has a team that draws 3+ Million fans a season ever thrown a starting day rotation this bad two years in a row?

/rant

I really wish Reyes could get a chance to rectify last season. I feel that he would be a better starter than Thompson. We all must remember that he had the worst run support in the majors.
If you look at all the major league innings pitched last year, Thompson and Reyes allowed 68 and 72 ER (respectively) last season.

Brian,

I totally disagree with you on Thompson. The kid is a sinkerball pitcher and the more innings he throws the better he will get. Look at last season in the final month. HIs ERA in September when he was put back in the Rotation was 2.96.

If you look at his numbers in his 17 starts last season & look at Wainwrights first half season’s starts you’ll see something even more strange. Adam had 17 starts before the AS break, he was 7-7 in just over 100 IP with an ERA of 4.66. Thomspon’s 17 starts, while not as many IP (which can be explained in the fact that he had to be stretched back out for the rotation), he was 6-4 with a 4.66 ERA. Now what would he have done had they given him as many opportunities as they did Wells or Reyes?

Thompson’s sinkerball reminds me of a guy who started games for the Cubs back in the 70’s, Rick Reuschel. The guy didn’t have a good fastball, just an average curve and changeup, but he had an excellent Sinker. He threw that pitch 80% percent of the time and was extremely successful with it. He looked so hittable, but every game I seen him throw you’d look up in the 7th inning and he’d have allowed maybe 2 or 3 runs, had gotten a dozen ground ball outs with maybe 2 or 3 strikeouts. Total frustration would have set in at that point.

If Duncan & LaRussa would give the ball to Thompson every 5th day & just tell him to pound that sinker in there 4 out of every 5 pitches he’d get tons of ground outs and eat up innings. Some where along the way in the next 3 or 4 seasons, Thompson is going to prove everyone wrong and become a winning MLB Starting pitcher. The scouts were wrong on Reyes, due to his lack of an outpitch and they are wrong on Thompson, too.

Lanny, DG has well documented the kind of throwing program that Lohse was on before he signed. The guy is a veteran, and he doesn’t need a baby-sitter to teach him how to stretch himself out to be ready. His stuff looked good, and he wasn’t laboring through his innings yesterday. Beware of stats, they can be deceiving.

Brian, you are echoing something I hear on this board a lot. Somehow, Thompson’s contributions to this team has been completely overlooked. He was significantly better than anything that Wells provided, for a fraction of the price. To say that Reyes provides greater potential because he has pitched a couple of good outings can be countered with two words, Bud Smith. Every year you can look and find a pitcher that flashed that kind of promise, and within two years was drummed out of baseball. I don’t know how the scouts missed so badly on this guy, but he just isn’t consistent enough to be an MLB pitcher. Bad pitchers complain about run support (see Garrett Stephenson), good pitchers find ways to win.

Your comments about how a rotation of Carpenter, Wainwright, Mulder, Lohse, and Pineiro/Clement is somehow a 4A rotation is just absurd. Carpenter won’t be himself this year, but he’ll need this year to be ready for next year. If Mulder has found his form back, you are talking about one of the premier LHP in MLB. Wainwright seems to have developed a top-of-the-rotation mentality to go along with top-end stuff. Lohse/Pineiro/Clement all are most likely 4.50 ERA guys that will give you 6 innings (that is the definition of a quality start, do the arithmetic). Tell me how the Yankees provide a better rotation than that. If that puts Wellemeyer and Thompson back in the bullpen, with some good trade chips for the team, then the Cards are well ahead of where the East-darling Mets are right now. The starting rotation in May, is not going to be the starting rotation in July.

Your research for you
Looper 46
Wainwright 16
Pineiro 65
Thompson 13
Wellemeyer 9
Reyes 8
Clement 87

That’s 157 wins without counting Clement’s 87 (I assumed he was your “others”).

Thanks.

Thanks for the research Elliot, my 4A comment referred to the rotation pre-injury returns.

Even counting Clement\’s 87 wins (which is currently higher than his fastball speed), the rotation without Carpenter or Mulder hurts bad. Waiting for Carp and Mulder is risky, I wish the the last two years waiting for Mulder to either get through his injury or find his arm slot taught us something.

Last year was one of the worst rotations in the history of this proud organization, what did we do to shore it up? We signed Clement who didn\’t pitch last year.

After that failed in ST, we signed Lohse. I like Lohse, good signing, but seriously the opening day rotation is

3/31 … Opening Day vs. Colorado: Wainwright - good pitcher, hopefully an ace
4/2 … vs. Colorado: Wellemeyer - retread who was cut by the Royals, yeah his stuff might be good. I hope so.
4/3 … vs. Colorado: Thompson - my opinion has already been stated here
4/4 … vs. Washington: Looper - average ML pitcher.
Who\’s next after we get to 5 starters? Lohse I assume. Then Pineiro? I assume, based on his current schedule. Then Mulder, hopefully….

I think using the word \”hope\” happens too often with this team and management. Let\’s all hold out hope for pitchers returning from surgery. Anyone else tired of this approach?

Should a better question in my last comment been how many innings did these starters go last year?, instead of how many career wins? Would that show the real problem? They\’re counting on people who couldn\’t be counted on last year. Sure there\’s talent, but the majority of talent is recovering from surgery. Thompson\’s fine, he\’s not the problem, the problem is that he is pitching the 3rd game of the year.

How many of these starters went for 200 innings, or near it?
Wainwright did it. (202)
Looper went for 175, I can\’t understand why everyone loves him, his ERA was almost 5.00 last year
Thompson went 129.1 with an ERA at 4.73
Wellemeyer 78.4
Lohse 192.7
Pineiro 97.
Clement 0
Mulder 11.0
Carpenter 6.0
There\’s three. One is an above average starter, one is average and the other is below average.

What happens if Mulder has setbacks, or Clement or Carpenter? Or all three? The odds of all three return to pre-injury form this year is rare.

If this thread continues I\’ll look up PECOTA projections all three. I doubt they are pretty for this season.

Brian,

Good stuff. I agree that this is definitely not a contending rotation, as it stands. I also think you’re right, a lot of things have to go right. I think the “one of the worst rotations in the history of this proud organization” is a little bit of hyperbole. I remember the Juan Agosto years. I remember waiting every year for Joe Magrane to be healthy enough for us to contend. I’m too young to remember any of those stellar 50’s or 70’s rotations. In both cases, we went for entire decades with maybe one real starting pitcher. (Thanks Mr. Gibson for providing something in the 70’s).

Let’s not lose focus here. This organization ran the cupboard dry with a very successful run of contention over the last decade and a half. The new direction of the organization will allow the Cards to contend consistently in the future. Unfortunately, the transistion is probably going to hurt. The organization has shown a committment to the new strategy by signing guys like Molina, Carpenter, and Wainwright to long term deals. The next real tests for them will be to see how they handle Ankiel (if he performs well) and Pujols.

The Wells signing last year turned out to be really bad. The Pineiro signing looked to be pretty good, but I think the judgement will have to be reserved until this year’s All-Star break. I would say the same thing about Mulder and Clement. I agree, Thompson and Wellemeyer are not long term options, but hopefully they are placeholders for better options.

Elliot, the worst rotation comment wasn’t hyperbole, their runs allowed was third highest in the history of the team (granted, scoring’s up, but still). (My source, because I read that recently:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-st-louis-cardinals3/)

Anyway, I remember the last years of the Maxvill era and it wasn’t fun. But the difference is this group of owners are generating revenue at a record pace. This team won the world series two years ago and what did they do last offseason to shore up a pitching staff? Convert Looper and Wainwright. Sign Wells. Pick up retreads mid-season to try to shore up.

I agree that the team is in transition, and the cupboard’s bare, it’s frustrating that they have the resources to supplement better than players DFA’d by other teams and consistently choose not to do so. This team could have easily signed workhouse rotation guys to short term deals either last year or this year instead of relying on other team’s releases, (Wellemeyer, Pineiro). They always want to find the next diamond in the rough. Duncan’s good, but he can’t make these chunks of coal into diamonds.

The biggest impact on all of their decisions is money. Including player development and free agents.

Look at the Kozma draft pick last year (DG has covered it well). They fail to pick Rick Porcello, because of the money and go after an odd choice in the 1st round because they lacked middle infield depth in the organization.

Baffling.

I like signing Molina and Wainwright, but they did it because they didn’t want to pay more later.

I prefer the youth approach long-term, and I’d actually be OK if they just fessed up and said we’re a team that’s rebuilding, holding out hope for healthy pitchers for next year. Last year’s team had a chance to supplement and did nothing. This team did little.

The constant conflict in this organization in youth versus veterans is perplexing. You can’t have a youth movement without them playing (Ryan, Reyes, Haren, even the beloved Thompson).

Remember Bonilla had to get hurt before Pujols got his chance. Seems like it’s the same thing this year for Barton (Juan Gone).

This years Cardinals slogan: “Cards 08. We have hope” (or “We’re recovering nicely”).

That “worst rotation” statement … look no further than last year. Bernie Miklasz has charted how last year’s rotation — frayed and wheezing as it was — has a a strong claim to that adjective, “worst.”

Brian,

I agree with you on the fact that I wish the team was more honest with the fan base about the transition the team is going through. We recognize a pig, painted up or not. For years, fans cried for fiscal solvency in baseball to try to even the playing field. I think what the Cards are doing is leading to that end, at least for them. Just because they are “generating revenue at a record pace.” does not mean they should spend it with abandon.

Their motivations for signing Wainwright and Molina (and even Pujols back in the day) were of course to avoid paying more later. I have NO issue with that. That is a great business decision. Being able to identify cornerstone players and signing them long term is becoming crucial to modern baseball (as it was before some of the craziness of free agency).

While most teams are paying $10M+ for 4-5 years for Gil Meche, Ted Lilly, etc. I wish I could tell you when Livan Hernandez will finally hit that wall. The big dollar signings of Schmidt and Zito have clearly taken their respective teams out of contention. Even the Santana signing by the Mets will require him to make an exceptional transition to the NL and continue to pitch at a Cy Young level for 3+ years to consider it a great move. The Cards have Carpenter and Wainwright. They are raising some solid potential 3-4-5 starters internally right now (No, I’m not talking about Thompson and Reyes). They have a few years to identify a new “ace” through draft or trade.

Your confliction in the organization comes from the team’s undying support of a manager that clearly favors proven track records over potential. Perhaps he is doing the right thing with guys like Ryan and Reyes, but I am more of a “sink/swim” type of guy (as it sounds are you).