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03.13.2008 3:01 pm

Closer look at Lohse

St. Louis Post-Dispatch
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JUPITER, Fla. — Cardinals catcher Jason LaRue spent some time in Cincinnati with the pitcher who will be a Cardinal if he passes a physical scheduled for Friday here in Jupiter, and LaRue has a familiar take on Kyle Lohse.

“He’s got great stuff,” he said.

As reported by Joe Strauss over at The Post-Dispatch main sports page, the Cardinals have agreed to terms on a one-year deal with Lohse, pending a physical that will be held with team doctors tomorrow. Team policy prohibits any official to speak about the deal until it is officially announced after the player passes a physical.

Lohse is coming off a 9-12 season with Cincy and Philadelphia, during which he had a 4.62 ERA (right at the league average) and 192 2/3 innings and 30 starts.

Just the kind of reliability the Cardinals are craving with an unsettled (unsettling?) rotation. A few weeks ago one of the Cardinals pitchers said Lohse was a good fit because he has the stuff and needs the direction.

LaRue concurred with that description.

“When he’s on his game, he’s as good as anybody,” LaRue said. “One of things is you have to know how to get through a game when maybe you don’t have your best stuff. You bear down instead of getting frustrated and you get through it. You find a way to keep yoru team in the game. If he can get control of his game in that way, then he’ll really put everything together.”

Late to the conversation, because Bernie Miklasz has already had his say (with a magnificent breakdown of the statistics) and Viva el Birdos chimed in with a savvy comparison. So what’s left to add about the soon-to-be newest Cardinal pitcher? Well, the Viva argument that Lohse looks a lot like Jeff Suppan did before he became a Cardinal, is a good launching point.

Baseball-Reference.com runs comparisons for most of the players logged there, using a score of 1000 as perfect and working down from there. Check out the players on Lohse’s page that he compares to:

(By Age, 28)

1. Jeff Suppan

2. Jason Jennings

5. Joel Pineiro

6. Steve Trachsel

8. Jason Marquis

9. Todd Stottlemyre

10. Sidney Ponson

Seven of the top 10 pitches he’s comparable to in his career have been Cardinals, are Cardinals or have been linked to the Cardinals at various times, most in just the past few seasons. Three times in his career, he’s thrown at least 180 innings, and in five of the past six seasons he’s started at least 30 games. As B-R and Viva point out, it’s the kind of durability that Suppan had before becoming a Cardinal, though there is a lot about Lohse that echoes of Jeff Weaver and … especially … Kip Wells.

Like Wells, Lohse has the arm that says his numbers should be better. Like Wells, he has done well against the Cardinals, going 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA last season and posting a 3.34 ERA in his career despite the Cardinals hitting .298 against him.

“Maybe the time is right,” pitching coach Dave Duncan said.

***

Colby Rasmus did his part to force a 10th inning in the ballgame against the Mets, and then made a defensive play that kept the Mets from pulling ahead in the top of the 10th. Entering the game at center to start the ninth inning, Rasmus singled in the bottom of the inning to move Brian Barton to third. Barton then scored on a wild pitch to knot the game, 5-5. 

In the 10th, Fernando Martinez attempted to score on a sacrifice fly to center, but Rasmus doubled-clutched and still nailed the Mets 19-year-old phenom at the plate to end the inning.

Tony La Russa pulled Rasmus aside for a meeting in the manager’s office after the rookie struck out with the bases loaded in the 10th inning earlier this week. “He’s got a different looking approach, and I wanted to tell him early in camp his approach looked like he was more himself,” La Russa said. “I think he’ll work on it.”

***

While the media talked with La Russa this morning on the main field here at Roger Dean Stadium, the Cardinals outfielders were going through infield. That prompted a discussion that has come up every so often this spring — the cannons the Cardinals have out there, especially Rick Ankiel’s, Skip Schumaker’s and Rasmus’. La Russa put Ankiel and Schumaker in the same class, calling them today among the elite outfield arms in the league.

Earlier this spring Ankiel declined to say whose arm was better.

Last weekend, Schumaker said: “Ankiel. Not even a question.”

Fitting than that MLB.com presents its Scout Survey today with a look at the best tools in each league. Ichiro Suzuki topped the list of outfield arms, with Atlanta’s Jeff Francouer leading the National League, according to scouts. Give Ankiel a season. 

***

Matt Clement Matt Clement threw another live batting practice round Thursday, ditching the L-screen in front of the mound and throwing with more pop. This third BP is a bit of a milestone, because it is usually after the third round that the pitcher vaults into a game start, if available. The Cardinals have been conservative with Clement, but pitching coach Dave Duncan acknowleged a few days ago that a start could be scheduled after the results of today’s throw. “I felt good, and I felt like I had pretty good results,” Clement said. “It’s the most positive session I have had in a long time, from warmup to the finish. The intensity, actual at-bats, all of it.”

The righthander continues his recovery from shoulder surgery, though the issue (it should be repeated) isn’t the health or stability of his shoulder, it’s the strength of the shoulder. Clement had been struggling with stamina during his bullpens, and not recovering as well from a strength standpoint to continue from day to day. Since stopping the regular build up toward games and focusing on arm strength, Clement has not had the problem recovering from throw to throw and has been able to worry less about his physical condition and focus more about the condition of his pitching.

***

So, Billy Crystal led off as the “Designated Hebrew” for his beloved New York Yankees today, on the eve of his 60th birthday. Got me thinking that the Cardinals have their own stockpile of celebrities, and certainly one of them could suit for a few innings, maybe start a game (or two):

  1. John Goodman

  2. Billy Bob Thornton

  3. Cedric the Entertainer

  4. Roger Clinton

  5. Nelly (I believe he used to sponsor a team in the men’s fastpitch league at Forest Park; good team, too.)

***

There has been a clamor ever since the debut of Kurt Hunzeker’s classic designs (one of which can be seen above in the Clement note), and, fittingly at the end of this post, is the t-shirt:

Bird Land t-shirt.

the logo

-30-

16 comments

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Suppose we consider Lohse the replacement for last year’s starts by Kip Wells and Mike Maroth. The Cardinals will be greatly improved, even if Lohse performs only at league average level.

Just in the games which Kip Wells started in 2007 the Cardinal run differential was -79. In games started by Mike Maroth the differential was -25. By odd coincidence, those two differentials add up to -104, exactly equal to the Cardinals’ run differential for 2007. (In the three starts by Mulder, who was much too weak to have rejoined the team when he did, the cardinals had an additional 13-run negative differential.)

The Cardinals’ record in games Kip Wells started in 2007 was 6-19 in 25 games. If an average pitcher had been in his place, that record could easily have been 12-13, a 6 game improvement, for an overall record of 84 wins. That would have put the Cardinals one game behind the Cubs at the end of the season. The Cardinals record in games Mike Maroth started was 2-5. An average pitcher would likely have enabled the Cardinals to have a 3-4 record, at least. That extra win would have put the Cardinals in a tie with the Cubs at the end of the regular season. The Cardinals lost all three of Mulder’s starts last year. All else being equal, winning even one of those three games, with an average starter rather than the weak, still injured Mulder, would have made the Cardinals the NL Central champs.

In games which Wells and Maroth did not start in 2007, the Cardinals had a .538 winning percentage. Considering that the sabermatricians predict that the Cardinals will score a few more runs this year than last (offensive production should be better this year from LF, CF, RF, 3B, and 2B and not as good at SS and C), it seems to be a good bet that the Cardinals will have a winning rate this season a bit higher than their .538 rate last year in games Wells and Maroth did not start.

A .538 record is very unlikely to win the division or the wild card, but at least it would be respectable.

All this doesn’t include the possibility that an effective Mulder returns in May or an effective Carpenter returns in July, making the rotation even better. (If Pedro Martinez could come back last year and pitch so well, isn’t there a reasonable chance Mulder or Carpenter could come back strong, too?) Neither does the .538+ projection incorporate the possibility that Anthony Reyes or his replacement will perform better than Reyes did last year (not too tall an order). Imagine how much additional improvement that would contribute. The likelihood that Colby Rasmus will join the team in July to boost CF offense could add a win or two also.

With help coming from AAA this year (Parisi, Garcia, McLellan) the Cards could actually afford to trade one of their veteran pitchers before the July trading deadline and improve the team even more.

By mid-season, we could see this rotation:
Carpenter
Mulder
Clement
Wainwright
Lohse or Pineiro

I’m betting the Cardinals will be a distinctly better team in 2007 than almost all of the pundits predict.

— CardsWinSeries
3:49 pm March 13th, 2008

I like the insurance…and I like that DeWitt opened the wallet for some additional help. 196 (???) innings is a stat that makes me feel more at ease.

No more taxing our relief core.

Billy Bob said he’d rather have the Birds win the Series than win an Oscar any given year. That’s AWESOME.

— ExistentialHumanist
3:52 pm March 13th, 2008

We can’t get better in 2007…(**jokes**)

— ExistentialHumanist
3:53 pm March 13th, 2008

DG, you should seriously talk to Hunzecker about making a few of those shirts. I’m sure a lot of baseball nerds would buy one for their t-shirt collection.

— Mark
4:01 pm March 13th, 2008

Good move Mo, keeps D. Duncan off the streets.

— tom from dc
4:05 pm March 13th, 2008

if i could get permission from the right folks…..id be glad to get them made and sell those type of tshirts…..doc in marion illinois

— tndoc3
4:10 pm March 13th, 2008

To me, the best part of this signing is maybe we can flip him for a prospect at the deadline. The last two guys Lohse was traded for aren’t awful.

— Maxwell
4:16 pm March 13th, 2008

It never hurts to have additional pitching. I would love to see if the surplus in pitching can’t be flipped for an honest, everyday middle infielder by mid-season. Maybe an Orlando Hudson, or the such. If the Cards find a way to still be in it by then, maybe they could even find some LH relief pitching. There are a lot of options available by having an excess of starters that are innings-eaters.

— Elliott
4:45 pm March 13th, 2008

I can get ahold of Kurt Hunzeker and see if any have been printed, I am sure Mark Lamping will approve.

— bob
5:06 pm March 13th, 2008

OK, a little bit of research on Kyle Lohse.

I looked at his Game Log for the 2007 season, to see how he did in his individual games.

And I see that he was able to put together 15 starts out of the 32 that he made with Game Scores of 50 or greater, which implies that he pitched in a little bit of bad luck.

In those 15 starts, he won 8, lost 2, and had 5 no-decisions – 3 of them after he joined the Phillies – which implies that he perhaps didn’t get get bullpen support from either the Reds or Phillies.

He had some really good starts – 8 shutout innings against the Cubs (with 12 K’s and 1 BB) on April 15, for his season-high Game Score of 85, plus a 77 against the Pirates on May 28, and a 78 against the Diamondbacks on July 6.

Overall, he had 8 starts with Game Scores of 60 or greater, and 7 starts from 50 to 59.

However, Lohse also had 17 starts with fewer than 50 points on the Game Score scale, including 8 of below 40 points (of which 6 were below 30 points). His season low was 17 points on May 8 against Cleveland (7 runs, 5 earned, in 1 1/3 IP) and 18 points on September 20 against Washington (6 runs in 2 innings, but the Phillies won the game anyway).

So what we have with Lohse, apparently, is a guy who has the ability to pitch very well but also the ability to be really bad. 16 of his 32 starts were either above 60 points or below 40; the other 16 were “average” starts of 40-59 points. In other words, a guy who’s right down the middle in terms of results.

But one additional positive sign: Lohse’s teams (the Reds and Phillies) won 17 of his 32 starts. And after the trade to Philadelphia, although Lohse only won 3 of his 11 starts for the Phillies (he didn’t lose any), the Philies went 9-2. Of course, it helps that they scored 65 runs in his 11 starts, or 5.91 per game.

So, there is hope – as long as we can score some runs while he’s out there.

— Jerry Modene
5:43 pm March 13th, 2008

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