That cleanup spot is going to be a mess this season. I do think Glaus would fit better as a number 5 and then you have two guys that are prototypical LaRussa number 2’s. I wonder if Tony has taken even a second to think about moving Pujols to the fourth spot and going back to the non Crazy 8 lineup. Pujols, I believe, needs extra time this season correct? While moving down one slot may not make much difference, it could still provide a percentage of fewer at bats. What about this Lienup:

Barton RF
Ankiel CF
Duncan LF
Pujols 1B
Glaus 3B
Molina C
Ryan SS
Kennedy 2B
Pitcher

I just played around with spots 6-8. I don’t think it’s clear whoe will win the MI positions or what kind of average Molina will have. If Molina hits like he can I say you move him up to 6. I personally would look at Ryan and Hoffpauir up the middle. I’d also say that you could take one of those MI guys and drop him to 2 and hit Ankiel 6 to limit how many times pitchers see him as well. But I’m not a “damage” guy like Tony is. Thoughts?

Yet another day with no Juan….good! My hopes grow for Mr. Barton.

I disagree with moving Albert to cleanup– the #3 position should always be your best hitter for average and power– that’s Albert no question. Second reason: he always bats in the first inning giving you a chance for an early lead. The 2008 version of the Cardinals has power potential if healthy with Duncan, Pujols, Ankiel, & Glaus all potential 30 homer guys. What I think we will see is a lot of solo home runs– so they could be near the top in homers but somewhere in the middle third to lower third in run production. Rasmus has shown an early ability to get on base– but I think he starts in AAA– if nothing else to give them a full year @ 27– rather than a full year @ 21 (Free Agency!). I’m intrigued with Ryan– not so much Hoffpauir– but I think the roster decision comes down to contracts (Miles & Kennedy) and the need for a corner infielder with power

dg,

I actually like that lineup alot. I think that lineup (with a semi-platoon outfield including Ankiel and Schu) would do a fine job of scoring runs on a consistent basis. Please tell me Barton is going to make the team over Juan Gone. Now if only the Cards could find 5 healthy starters…btw still no thought of Ryan Franklin as starter?

I like RCJ ’s thoughts on the lineup but mixed it up a little.

BARTON RF
DUNCAN LF
ANKIEL CF
PUJOLS 1B
GLAUS 3B
MOLINA C
RYAN 2B
ISTURIS SS
PITCHER P

I did some additional research. After the cardinals signed Glaus, I blogged about his mediocre numbers as a cleanup hitter. Next, I wanted to try and put his #4 numbers into some sort of context. Since Glaus began playing in 1998, he’s had 1,435 ABs as a cleanup hitter. During that time, 79 players have accumulated at least 900 ABs in the cleanup spot. Of those 79, Glaus ranks 71st in OPS (.815). Not good.

-kennedy-

Thank you again for your updates and insights, Derrick. They are the best.

The preview of the Cardinal season by Larry Boros in the Hardball Times that you mentioned yesterday is excellent but I believe it overstates how bad the Cardinal season was in 2007 and underestimates the team’s prospects for this year. There is at least one flaw in Larry’s otherwise excellent analysis: his reference to the Cardinals’ awful 2007 run differential of -104.

Larry does not mention that the run differential can be attributed to two starting pitchers who are no longer with the team. Just in the games which Kip Wells started the Cardinal run differential was -79. In games started by Mike Maroth the differential was -25. By odd coincidence, those two differentials add up to -104, exactly equal to the Cardinals’ run differential for 2007. (In the three starts by Mulder, who was much too weak to have rejoined the team when he did, the cardinals had an additional 13-run negative differential.)

The Cardinals’ record in games Kip Wells started in 2007 was 6-19 in 25 games. If an average pitcher had been in his place, that record could easily have been 12-13, a 6 game improvement, for an overall record of 84 wins. That would have put the Cardinals one game behind the Cubs at the end of the season. The Cardinals record in games Mike Maroth started was 2-5. An average pitcher would likely have enabled the Cardinals to have a 3-4 record, at least. That extra win would have put the Cardinals in a tie with the Cubs at the end of the regular season. The Cardinals also lost all three of Mulder’s starts last year. All else being equal, winning even one of those three games, with an average starter rather than the weak, still injured Mulder, would have made the Cardinals the NL Central champs.

The Cardinals should get much better starts from Mulder when he joins the rotation this season, but even if Mulder fails, the “addition by subtraction” in replacing starts by Wells and Maroth with average starts, at least, could generate a huge improvement in the starting rotation’s performance. In effect, the 25 games started by Wells will now be started by clement, who is a good bet to show at least average performance if he is healthy. The 7 games started last year by Maroth will be started this year by Pineiro. Pineiro has already shown that he can offer at least average performance under Dave Duncan’s coaching and LaRussa’s management.

In games which Wells and Maroth did not start in 2007, the Cardinals had a .538 winning percentage. Despite the losses by Wells and Maroth, the Cardinals were only a game out of first place in early September, before Ankiel’s performance dived after the HGH story in the NY paper. That seemed to be the final blow to a team that had already lost one teammate (Josh Hancock) in a fatal traffic accident and lost another (Juan Encarnacion) in a freak accident on the field that probably ended Juan’s career.

Considering the improvement in the starting rotation we can reasonably expect with the replacements for Wells and Maroth, and considering that the sabermatricians predict that the Cardinals will score a few more runs this year than last (offensive production should be better this year from LF, CF, RF, 3B, and 2B and not as good at SS and C), it seems to be a good bet that the Cardinals will have a winning rate this season a bit higher than their .538 rate last year in games Wells and Maroth did not start.

A .538 record is very unlikely to win the division this year or even the wild card, but at least it would be respectable.