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04.15.2008 1:00 pm

Decision 2008: Cleaning up after Pujols

TOWER GROVE — Albert Pujols came one walk shy last summer of a first in his career, a 100-walk season. This season, he’ll get there by August.

Pujols has 13 walks in 54 plate appearances so far — so early — this month. Take his average season of 677 plate appearances and at his current rate he’ll walk 163 times this year. That would break by one base on balls the franchise record, set in 1998 by Mark McGwire. And, it would be the fifth highest total in baseball history, or the second-most ever by a player not named Barry Bonds.

The other chap to walk that many times? Babe Ruth.

He’s going to easily eclipse 100 this season, if he stays healthy, and whether he takes a run at 150 walks this season will depend less on him and more on those around him. The Cardinals showed this past weekend in San Francisco that Protecting Pujols is as much the responsibility of the hitters ahead of him as the hitters behind him. If Skip Schumaker, et. al., get on base ahead of Pujols there are less bases to put Pujols.

Easy.

But the vacancy at cleanup for the Cardinals continues to sabotage the team’s offensive production, especially when teams can traipse around Pujols and dare the hitters behind him to produce. Here is the erosion of production from the cleanup spot for the Cardinals over the past five seasons (MLB rank):

SEASON … BA (rk) … OBP (rk) … SLG (rk) … OPS (rk)

2004 … .286 (10) … .402 (2) … .543 (5) … .945 (5)

2005 … .274 (17) … .376 (6) … .494 (10) … .870 (9)

2006 … .308 (7) … .389 (8) … .521 (13) … .910 (9)

2007 … .246 (30) … .320 (30) … .386 (30) … .706 (30)

2008 … .240 (20) … .316 (24) … .420 (22) … .736 (22)

As much as we have written about the black hole that was the four hole for the Cardinals last season, it’s still glaring to look at those numbers — last in baseball straight across the columns. That .386 slugging percentage is closer to the league averge for on-base percentage (.365) than it is the league average for slugging percentage (.492). This kind of flabby production from what has to be a muscle in the middle of the order muzzled the Cardinals offense and its best bat.

Sure there are many more reasons for it than just the above, but it not a coincidence that the Cardinals’ No. 4 hitter has its highest average and second-best slugging percentage the same season Pujols sets career highs in homers and RBIs.

And the 30th-ranked cleanup hitters followed Pujols’ season of career-lows.

That brings us to the latest in a ongoing pre/early-season series of Decision 2008. So many of the openings on the Cardinals roster have been filled – fourth and fifth starters (check); leadoff hitter (check) — but the cleanup spot remains a rotating cast. And it’s possible the best candidate for the role has just five at-bats there.

But he did homer.

** THE BALLOT ** 

RICK ANKIEL, CF: The odds-on candidate to hit cleanup against righthanded pitchers, like tonight’s starter Dave Bush. Ankiel has the power to keep opponents honest, though the recent spike in strikeouts is something to wary of. He showed improved discipline at the plate this spring, and has to carry that over to the regular season or else 250 combined strikeouts in the No. 4 and No. 5 spots in the order are going to kill a lot of rallies.

TROY GLAUS, 3B: Has so far been the cleanup hitter against lefthanded pitchers, despite a preponderance of evidence that he has not been productive there in his career. Glaus has yet to hit a home run this season, is batting .222 overall and only Toronto’s Vernon Wells has more at-bats with runners in scoring position than Glaus’ 20. Glaus shrugs it off as just one of those things, like Braden Looper’s day-night splits from last summer, but what he’s done in his career at cleanup and No. 5:

  • No. 4 — 399 games … 1,458 AB … .237/.343/.468
  • No. 5 — 334 games … 1,180 AB … .258/.364/.497

CHRIS DUNCAN, LF: A surging slugger who could hit his way into this role. Manager Tony La Russa has spoken many times over the past couple seasons about how he prefers to have Duncan in the two spot. There’s plenty of reason for that, though chief among them is his ability to get on base ahead of Pujols. Duncan has walked six times and struck out six times this season. He has a .359 career OBP, a .357 OBP. He has a .885 career OPS, and it is an .897 OPS in the No. 2 spot.

ALBERT PUJOLS, 1B: Pujols obviously cannot protect himself, so by shifting him to cleanup it may only pass the buck to the five hitter, and it may foil La Russa’s “Crazy 8″ idea. But if La Russa ever gave colleague Joe Strauss the lineup card to fill out, Pujols would be batting cleanup. He’s been there before:

237 games … 883 AB … .323 BA … .406 OBP … .582 SLG

The benefit would be having three hitters ahead of him with the chance to get on base, four if the double-leadoff is in play. The drawback would be — are there three hitters to fill those spots? Who would bat third? Ankiel? Is it worth giving up Pujols’ at-bat in the first inning or, most importantly, the 13 to 17 fewer plate appearances he could get over the course of the season.

RYAN LUDWICK, OF: Comes into tonight’s game with a home run in the past three and an .800 slugging percentage this season. His ability to hit righthanders and his struggles against lefties continue to be a riddle. But beyond that and the two three-strikeout games this past week, Ludwick has some traits of a cleanup hitter. He hits for power. He hits for a good enough average. His 2007 .839 OPS with runners in scoring position is better than his 2007 bases-empty number (.813) and runners on (.820). He went 2-for-5 in his turn at cleanup Sunday. And it’s not the first time he’s been there. Back in 2007, Ludwick hit cleanup in Triple-A to this tune:

106 AB … 39 H … 18 XB … 18 K … .368/.402/.726

Any write-in candidates? Any out-of-market options?

First, check out the link below. Rock and then vote.

***

If you haven’t seen it yet, Scott Spiezio’s band Sandfrog has a music video over at YouTube linking its way across the Internet. You can also check out Jeff Gordon’s Tipsheet to play the video.

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21 comments

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DG, you might be interested in a write up on VEB posted over the weekend. http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2008/4/13/392446/40-acres-and-a-power-bat very much the same thing you wrote only he was looking external not internal to fill the gap.

— Hugo
1:45 pm April 15th, 2008

There’s a great discussion of this topic at http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2008/4/13/392446/40-acres-and-a-power-bat
Bat Albert 4th.

Is it more likely that 2 Abs will produce a base runner, or is it more likely that 3 Abs will produce a base runner? It seems like there’s a better chance of base runners being on for Albert if there are 3 hitters, rather than 2 hitters, in front of him.

The chances are greater for Albert to hit with the bases empty if he’s hitting 3rd in the order than if he’s hitting 4th in the order. To put it another way, it’s less likely for three hitters in a row to all make outs than it is for two hitters in a row to make outs. So, wouldn’t it be better for Albert to hit 4th?

If the main concern is Albert hitting more times in the season, than why not go ahead and hit him 2nd? If the main concern is Albert hitting with men on base, then why not hit him 4th?

The problem with him hitting 4th is that he would hit with the bases empty leading off the 2nd inning if the first 3 hitters all made outs. As is, he hits with the bases empty when 2 consecutive hitters make outs, which I’ve pointed out is much more likely than the first 3 men all making outs.

Plus, if Albert hits leading off the 4th, there’s a greater chance of him scoring runs because you’ve got the potential of having him on base with no outs and RBI guys coming up. If he hits with the bases empty in the first inning and gets on, you’ve only got one out left to play with. Also, if you’ve got 3 (or 4 with the Crazy 8 lineup) competent hitters ahead of him, opponents are less likely to have bases open to walk Albert than if you’ve only got 2 (or 3) competent hitters ahead of him.

Conclusion: Just hit Albert fourth.

— 82Special
2:07 pm April 15th, 2008

Glaus will hit, Duncan is looking better, Ludwick is Ludwick, and (one would hope) Ankiel will adjust to those wild pitches he keeps swinging at. I don’t think this is a pressing issue. If they want to walk Pujols 163 times, that’s fine; the team will then score 900 runs, as long as Pujols trusts the men behind him.

A pressing issue is: what are we going to do about getting some production out of second base? *Cough* hoff /*cough*

— SleepyCA
2:21 pm April 15th, 2008

There is no good solution to this predicament given the current roster. This team has a shortstop and a second baseman who cannot hit and a catcher who won’t hit for power. Then there is Schumacher in the leadoff role. That leaves only three spots (third base, center field and a corner outfield spot) as players who can possibly hit in the middle of the order/protect Pujols … and the third baseman has shown an inability to do that thus far. This team needs a middle infielder who can lead off (Brian Roberts?), so that the three outfield spots can all be filled by run producers.

— Chris
2:27 pm April 15th, 2008

Strike outs don’t kill rallies. Double plays do. I can think of worse things than the 4 and 5 hitter striking out a lot.

— JeremyR
2:48 pm April 15th, 2008

Thanks all for the reference to the Viva thread. I find it fascinating how Bay continues to fascinate the fanbase — and it’s a bit too early to talk trade, don’t you think? Cardinals are going to have to solve this hole from within until the trade winds really start blowing. And who knows then …

Good point, JeremyR. That’s why Milwaukee has Kendall hitting ninth.

The point isn’t just killing rallies: It’s limiting the ability to create a rally. Walk Pujols, K the rest is a heck of a scouting report.

dg
-30-

— Derrick Goold
2:55 pm April 15th, 2008

Theres a great discussion of the value of walking Pujols every time on the Houston Chronicle sports page at http://blogs.chron.com/unofficialscorer/2008/04/should_you_walk_albert_pujols.html. For some reason (Lidge), I find that Astros fans really have a strange fixation on Albert!

— Eric
3:03 pm April 15th, 2008

Albert should not bat cleanup. A lineup is best built by having the team’s best hitter at the 3 spot. The lack of a cleanup hitter is not remedied by moving Albert. Then who hits in the 3 hole? It creates a bigger hole. JS is wrong in this instance. Someone else needs to step up.

— allen
3:08 pm April 15th, 2008

St.louis and it’s cardinal fans can (pluck) my cubbie (paw).

— Ho-hum
3:11 pm April 15th, 2008

Next to Pujols, Ankiel is the most feared hitter in this lineup. He hits lefties good enough to always bat 4th. The Cards won’t get anybody better than him. Ludwick is better suited for 5th or 6th. They’re not going to walk Pujols all that much to get to Ankiel — at least not for long.

— BNC4477
3:28 pm April 15th, 2008

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