TOWER GROVE — A little more than a year ago, the Cardinals’ starting rotation was stringing together a ludicrously long streak of scoreless innings. The starters’ ERA for the month was less than 1.00, and dropping because of what one righthander was doing to the Minnesota Twins.

Opposite Johan Santana and facing a lineup that included MVP Justin Morneau and batting champ Joe Mauer, this Cardinal pitcher kept throwing up zeros. He held the Twins to two hits and no runs over his three innings. He’d go on to pitch 17 innings that month, strike out 15 and post a 1.06 ERA.

And therein is today’s lesson.

As the Cardinals come storming out of March, a lion riding a seven-game winning streak, a 10-game unbeaten streak and a span where they outscored opponents by more than 40 runs total, there is a cautionary tale barely a year old.  When it comes to resting regular-season hopes on spring-training numbers, recall these two words:

KIP WELLS

A twist of the weather and schedule brings Wells back to the frontal lobe today as he’ll start for Colorado in the Ryan Ludwick-coined “Opening Day: Part II.” When the Cardinals came north a year, Wells was a cornerstone of a pitching staff that had a 2.29 ERA and a rotation that had two extended scoreless streaks in March. Turns out the numbers told us more about which way the Florida wins were blowing than how the Cardinals were throwing. When the regular season started, Wells went south.

Even for those who no longer buy into a pitcher’s record as an estimation of his performance, cannot argue against Wells’ 7-17 record as being reflective of his season.

He led the league in losses for a reason.

With Wells as a guide then, what to make of the Cardinals’ most recent spring. Unlike in 2007, the Florida wind wasn’t blowing in everyday at most ballparks, suppressing offense. So the numbers look a little more … real. The Cardinals hit .286 as a team and had a 4.01 ERA. They went 17-10-2, and if you use Grapefruit League records as a harbinger of National League results, then the Cardinals are set to contend. Consider their spring records since 2000, and where they went when the games counted:

2008 … 17-10-2 … Still 0-0.

2007 … 16-10-3 … September tumble took them out of contention.

2006 … 15-14-1 … World Series champions

2005 … 15-11-2 … 100-game winners

2004 … 17-12-0 … NL champs, 105-game winners

2003 … 12-15-2 … made for a great book, but no postseason

2002 … 17-10-3 … NLCS vs. San Fran

2001 … 17-15-0 … NLDS

2000 … 17-11-0 … NLCS vs. NY Mets

A record is more a measure of the ends, and spring is all about the means. The Cardinals have collected their team batting average and their team ERA for every season since they moved into Roger Dean Stadium. Recognizing that the 2.29 team ERA 2007 was a complete fluke — one revealed by the team’s record-worst 4.65 ERA in the regular season — the team totals offer little more than a rough forecast of the season ahead.

Take since 2000:

2000 … Spring: .290/4.58 … Regular: .270/4.38

2001 … Spring: .271/4.40 … Regular: .270/3.93

2002 … Spring: .259/3.34 … Regular: .268/3.70

2003 … Spring: .282/5.65 … Regular: .279/4.60

2004 … Spring: .275/4.53 … Regular: .278/3.75

2005 … Spring: .279/3.73 … Regular: .270/3.49 (led NL)

2006 … Spring: .260/3.65 … Regular: .269/4.54

2007 … Spring: .255/2.29 … Regular: .274/4.65

2008 … Spring: .286/4.01

The numbers here suggest to avoid the extremes, either way to the good or way to the bad. See, spring totals are difficult because they take into account a much larger team than the one headed north for the regular season. There are innings awarded young pitchers who might be a few years away. There are at-bats given minor-leaguers who might never see the majors.

There is also geography.

The Cactus and Grapefruit leagues offer different climates and different games. They provide context for the Cardinals totals. This past spring, the top four team batting averages for the NL and five of the top six were all in Arizona. The top seven NL pitching staffs — ranked by ERA — were all in Florida. The Cardinals’ team batting average was .286, best in the NL division of the Grapefruit League and better than two teams in Arizona. (It was tied for third overall in the Grapefruit League.)

The Cardinals’ team ERA of 4.01 was fourth-best amonth in Florida, much better than the Grapefruit average and way ahead of any AL team in Florida.

If comparing team numbers from spring against other teams and the other state offers up any truths then try these:

• In a pitchers’ league, the Cardinals’ .435 slugging percentage was still eighth-best in the NL, and seventh-best overall in Florida. Only two Florida-based NL teams had better slugging percentages than the Cardinals.
• Houston has a problem. In Florida, where pitchers’ rule, the Astros had the worst spring ERA in baseball. At 6.65, it was nearly a run worse than any other NL team in Florida (Philadelphia at 5.90 was next) and behind the worst staff in hitter-happy Arizona (San Fran’s 6.31).

Spring confirms what the Cardinals suggest — they are going to be an improved offensive club, especially when it comes to thump.

On an individual basis, spring can be just as elusive an indicator as it is with teams. The last time Troy Glaus was in the National League, he hit seven home runs and drove in 33 runs in March. (He was, after all, in Arizona with Arizona for March.) That season he hit 37 home runs and had 97 RBIs. He had just two home runs and eight RBIs the next spring — in Florida, with Toronto — but bettered both season totals with 38 homers and 104 RBIs.

Matthew Leach, of MLB.com, suggested one well-researched indicator of spring: Slugging percentage. Makes sense. Having seen Albert Pujols mash a few Marches, that stat seems to be a strong way to weigh not only how a player his hitting in spring, but how hard or well he’s hitting in spring.

The target: Slugging 200 points better in spring than a player has over his career. Do that. And good things follow. (Check out John Dewan’s breakdown of possible breakout players using this method in this Stat of the Day from last week.)While a couple Cardinals came close this spring, only one surpassed the +200 threshold.

One good thing for him has already followed.

A rundown of the Cardinals hitters and how their spring SLG compares to their career SLG. But first a quick note: The slugging percentage provided for Rick Ankiel is sincce he retired as a pitcher, including minor league numbers; the stats for Brian Barton are from the minors. And, finally, it’s my opinion that catchers get some slack here for the schedule they keep in spring. (+100 are bolded)

PLAYER, Pos. … Spring … Career … +/-

Rick Ankiel, OF … .542 … .568 … +26

Brian Barton, OF … .476 … .597 … +120

Chris Duncan, OF … .528 … .222 … -306

Troy Glaus, 3B … .500 … 545 … +45

Cesar Izturis, SS … .334 … .268 … -66

Adam Kennedy, 2B … .390 … .345 … -45

Jason LaRue, C … .405 … .250 … -155

Ryan Ludwick, OF … .446 … .547 … +101

Aaron Miles, 2B … .357 … 327 … -30

Yadier Molina, C … .349 … 270 … -79

Albert Pujols, 1B … .620 … .780 … +160 

Brendan Ryan, SS … .406 … .389 … -17

Skip Schumaker, OF … .400 … .606 … +206

And there it is. The Cardinal who reaches the +200 threshold for spring slugging is Schumaker, who come racing out of March as the Cardinals’ leadoff hitter and an everyday player for the first time in his career. And that manager Tony La Russa’s description of Schumaker. He’ll probably play right field tonight after starting in left Monday night, but he has an everyday position: leadoff.

Spring is a tricky time to use numbers to define players. Look no further than the rousing debate about Izturis’ glove. The Wells Factor impeaches spring stats, even as Schumaker’s spring gains gravity when stacked up against his career. In the end, spring is about how a player gets to the numbers.

It’s the means of March that matter at the end.

Or, it could just be as Ankiel said, sitting at his locker in Jupiter, packing a bag.

“I’m happy about it, happy about what I did this spring,” Ankiel said. “But it doesn’t count.”

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