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04.17.2008 1:11 pm

Search continues for Musial’s lost HR

St. Louis Post-Dispatch

DOWNTOWN — After the blog entry earlier this month about Stan Musial’s “lost” home run and possible rained-out Triple Crown, an army of eager researchers joined the quest for documenting the existence of the weather-erased homer or bust this local myth. My inbox was loaded with tips, suggestions, information, questions (did I think to check the New York papers?), offers to help and links. Many, many links.

And then, one day, I received this email from author David Vincent:

 I should also point out that the lost homer in New York never happened - at least not that season. We have already thoroughly researched that one.

Vincent’s name may be recognizable. He is, in many corners, Mr. Home Run. He invented and spurred the initial research behind Retrosheet’s definitive catalog of Lost Home Runs. It is that list that spurred this search for Musial’s Lost Home Run, a hit that has become part of the accepted history of his record-setting MVP season of 1948, but also a hit that has lacked the needed verification for a place among other rained-out, canceled or otherwise lost homers.

The distilled history of this search was recounted in a previous blog entry — which can be found here – and it has been repeated many times before me.

Since that blog, some new information has been collected. Most of it provides more questions than answers. But a fair trove of info gives background on other searches and where they came up empty on the home run that puts the legend in Musial’s legendary 1948 season.

The clues, starting with Mr. Vincent’s explanation of their own research:

Dave Smith looked at all the possible days that this “rain out” could have happened in New York. If they had started a game and not completed it, there should be some mention in one of the many NY papers available to us. There is none. This report is no more true than the one about Dick Radatz striking out Mickey Mantle as many times as he said - and was reported when he died.

Many readers went through the process of finding potential dates for the rainout. The favorite is Aug. 3. (Viva el Birdos had a discussion that also came to that conclusion. And Birds on the Bat delved into the topic with relish.) The original schedule had a game scheduled for that day, and Retrosheet game logs show a doubleheader played on Aug. 4. Several people emailed me a New York Times article that was one of the first pieces of evidence acquired years ago.

Christopher Kirsch, an economics major at SIUE, was kind enough to duplicate the key article and email it to me:

NY Times article from Aug. 1948

Written by Louis Effrat, it reads:

Having gone from one extreme to the other, with something that could be described conservatively as a record-shattering crash, Leo Durocher today will try to get his Giants back on the happy medium beam in a slight variation of the old two-a-day routine.

The rain which forced a postponement of last night’s scheduled clash with the Cardinals, also forced the clubs into a novelty. Schedule conditions being what they are, with time running out, it was necessary to card last night’s game for tonight.

Recourse of the Giants to the two-a-day routine was dictated by a schedule which finds the Cardinals here for only one more playing date in September. Manager Durocher does not expect to find the switch too much of a hardship. Leo has Sheldon Jones and Larry Jansen primed for the Cards, Jones looking for his eleventh victory while Jansen will be going for No. 15.

It is the last paragraph there describing the pitching matchups that is most intriguing. A few of the original searchers — the ones who wrote me about the homer several years ago — recall that the home run was hit at the Polo Grounds (location check), that it happened in August (rainout check) and that pitcher was Dave Koslo. All of that information is needed to get the homer logged on Retrosheet. None of it is yet confirmed.

But there is a clue concerning Koslo. According Retrosheet’s Giants game log from 1948, Koslo started games on July 29 and Aug. 7. Nothing inbetween. Whether he pitched an inning or two here or there is difficult to determine. But there is his conspicuous absence from a start right around the confirmed rainout …

There is also a conspicuous absence of coverage from the time period.

Steve Gietschier, who works at The Sporting News, was kind enough to check their archives from 1948 to see if there was any mention of a rained-out homer in Musial’s MVP season.  In coverage around that August rainout, he found no mention of a home run hit that did not count. Moreover, he checked the November issues of the magazine for coverage of Musial’s MVP award. The theory being that someone somewhere would have mentioned that Musial came a home run shy of the Triple Crown and that home run was lost to rain.

Nope. No mention.

Bob Broeg wrote the MVP story of The Sporting News, and there is no mention of the rained-out home run in his coverage. 

Yet the story of it persists. As discussed in the previous blog. Broeg mentions it in his autobiography. Musial is quoted about in the oral history of the Cardinals and St. Louis baseball. And there have been subsequent news stories and features written locally that make reference to it. Has it become an urban legend?

Reader Jeff Karadja provided an ample amount of information in a series of emails. He offers up two possibilities for how other home runs — lost and caught — could have morphed into this one legendary homer.

The first:

I came across an article in the St. Louis Star-Times on August 5th, 1948. “Musial Wallops Longest Out” tells how Stan hit a ball 450 feet to right center that traveled further than any of his 26 homers thus far in ‘48. It was caught by rightfielder Willard Marshall. He hit it in the ninth inning of the Cards 7-2 win on August 4th. This out and Musial’s first game of the Doubleheader homer could be the cause of this all.

The article went on to say “Because of the shape of the Polo Grounds the Giants shade their rightfielder in the gap allowing for the catch at the 455 foot mark near the bullpen. The ball would have departed any other major league ball park, and had the distance, for example, to land well up in the center field bleachers in St. Louis.”

And, the second possibility:

After researching all week and finding nothing to prove a washed out 1948 Musial homer, I think it’s (the fading memory of) facts from the past. Musial DID lose a homerun at the Polo Grounds due to a rainout. But it happened on August 25, 1951.

That is Vincent’s opinion. That somehow memories have been spliced and stories retold to create a rained-out home run that did not happen. Not that Retrosheet and others — like us in here — haven’t continued looking for verification of it. Retrosheet’s standards are rightly strict, and again the purpose is not to rewrite history but to confirm a quirk of history. Ken Griffey Jr. wasn’t the first to hit 50 home runs in three consecutive years. But he could have been had the weather been better.

David Smith, the president of Retrosheet who was mentioned above by Vincent, gave a detailed explanation of his research in an email exchange we had last week. He did what I did and many others did: Find the presumed rainout dates and start digging.

In his research he discovered what he called an “overall gain of one” home run by Musial because of various rain outs that season. In other words, he hit at least a home run in one of the rescheduled games, thus offsetting any possible rained-out homer.

Here was the explanation and summary of his report:

Here are the makeup dates for these five games:

08-02 was originally an off day (makeup of 5-25) MUSIAL HOMER
08-04(1) was originally single game MUSIAL HOMER
08-04(2) was originally single game (8-03 makeup) MUSIAL NO HOMER
09-19(1) was originally single game MUSIAL NO HOMER
09-19(2) was originally single game (8-05 makeup) MUSIAL HOMER

This is tricky, because for the 8-04 and 9-19 doubleheaders, we have to assign one of the games as the scheduled one and the other as the makeup. I always think of the second one as the makeup, but I have heard from others that apparently the standard is that the first one is the makeup. However, clearly the game of 8-02 was a makeup of 5-25 and he did homer. He also homered in one half of each of the doubleheaders - the first game in one, the second game in the other. So no matter how you assign the makeups, ONE of those doubleheader homers had to be in a makeup game.

So my summary is that if he did have one washed out (and I still have no objective support for that), then he hit two others in makeup games that “would not have been played”.

The key words that Smith used in his email to me and that confound anyone’s search for the lost home run is this: Retrosheet and others have been unable to find “independent, objective corroboration” of the rained-out homer. The silver bullet would be a scorecard that confirms a partial game played on any of the rained-out dates that season. Leads on such a scorecard are being followed.

This (so far fruitless) quest has uncovered one other possible gem about Musial’s ‘48 season.

Musial’s 429 total bases in 1948 are the most by any hitter in the past 75 years. They also were 113 more than the second-highest total in the National League that season (Johnny Mize’s 316). And Pat Knox, of Peoria, Ill., wrote in to say that in 1948 Musial broke a lesser-known record, the most total bases on the road. Knox writes that Musial had 251 on the road that year, busting Lou Gehrig’s record by a base. Wrote Knox: “Maybe you have access to this information.”

Like the Lost Homer, my search for confirmation on that info continues, too.

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17 comments

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“But there is a clue concerning Koslo. According Retrosheet’s Giants game log from 1948, Koslo started games on July 29 and Aug. 7. Nothing inbetween.”

That sounds like the smoking gun to me, indicating that a partial game *was* played on that suspected date, with Koslo as the starting pitcher. (Well maybe “smoking gun” is a bit too strong, since it’s far from iron-clad proof, but it certainly points in that direction.)

However, this data indicates nothing as to whether or not Musial homered in that partial game, so I guess the search continues.

Have you looked at the Cardinals’ starting pitchers as well, to see if they have a starter who had a similar period of inactivity, indicating that he also may have pitched a partial game on that date?

— Paul H
2:10 pm April 17th, 2008

Paul,

An excellent question. So I looked. And around that time the Cardinals had LHP Howie Pollet follow LHP Al Brazle in the rotation. On July 31, Brazle started — and he did not start again until Aug. 7, according to the Retrosheet game log. Pollet started twice in that span, including the day after the doubleheader that resulted from the Aug. 3 rainout.

Curiouser and curiouser.

dg
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— Derrick Goold
2:15 pm April 17th, 2008

I’m sorry if this has already been discussed, but has anyone asked The Man about all this? I know his health is fading but I have no idea how sharp his mind is these days. Perhaps it’s too much to ask, about some tiny detail, but it would seem to me he might remember whether or not there was talk in ‘48 (or any year for that matter) about him being a HR shy of the triple crown.

— TimMcCarver15
2:42 pm April 17th, 2008

OK sorry Derrick. I took the time to read the original Apr. 2 blog. You’ve got it covered! :)

— TimMcCarver15
2:45 pm April 17th, 2008

i’m watching the game and am very impressed with mcclellan’s ability to throw a pwap (pitch with a purpose). in this case high and tight to hardy. he seems very mature for a young pitcher. very bright future.

— roger from tahoe
3:15 pm April 17th, 2008

Has someone with a New York Times subscription checked the NYT online archives for an article about the rainout game or for boxscores in between Koslo’s 2 starts to see if he pitched in relief in between his 2 starts? Are there any other newspapers in NY or STL that an article might be written in?

— Josh
4:46 pm April 17th, 2008

who the hell cares? quit wasting space about something that happened a lifetime ago! what a geek! what the hell is going on with the club and the minors?

— keith
8:47 am April 18th, 2008

The “fact” that Musial had a net gain of 1 home run resulting from make up games is rather spurious. That assumes as fact that Musial would not have hit the home runs if the games were played as scheduled. He might not have, but again he might have had 2 in each of the games. No one knows, so any net gain has to be presented as supposition, not fact.

— Ken Robinson
10:37 am April 18th, 2008

Reading this, I got to wondering if Koslo was an established starter who by rights should have had a start between July 29 and August 7, especially in the era of the four-man rotation. Baseball-Reference for 1948 gives Koslo 35 games with 18 starts. So he was apparently a spot or situational starter. As Derrick says, it is curious circumstantial evidence that Koslo’s starts are nine days apart. But there are fairly easy alternative explanations. It’s not as if he was an unquestioned starter who would have gone out every 4-5 days barring injury — or rain out.

More broadly, isn’t it time for baseball, being as tied to records and history as it is, to end the practice of washing out games? If a game starts and is suspended — for rain, snow, insects, power failure, civil insurrection, falling dome ceiling tiles, disco demolition, etc. — it should be continued from the point of interruption, whether that’s in the second inning or the 13th. I might also revise the rule about shortened games once they become official after five innings. In a pennant race, it’s arbitrary and unfair to hang a loss on a team that was losing by one run with up to four innings left. Short of playing all games to completion at a later date, you could have something similar to the old save rule — after completion of at least five innings (4 1/2 with the home team leading), the game can only be declared a decision if a team leads by at least three runs, unless the trailing team has the tying run on base or at the plate. Crazy, or high time in the era of team charter jets?

— Fuhrig
11:33 am April 18th, 2008

As the fan who enlisted Derrick’s help in this quest several years ago, I should like to thank him publicly for his efforts. It has been a labor of love for each of us. Before I contacted him, I had spent over a year trying to convince Retrosheet, to no avail.
I personally have NO doubt that Stan lost a homer in ‘48 because, as a teenager in Manhattan and as a fanatical follower of his magical season, I heard it happen on good old WMCA.

— Michael J. Murphy
11:38 am April 18th, 2008

Says you! Did anybody TiVo that game?

— Fuhrig
11:44 am April 18th, 2008

I have to agree that it’s time for baseball to fix the rules on partial games. The Cards losing this year’s opener was especially irksome. Oh yeah, that 5-1 lead you’ve got there over the defending league champions? Well, we’re not gonna count that afterall.

Golf and Tennis (the only other sports I can think of that this is an issue) pick up from the point when play was stopped and play until it’s finished. Can you imagine if Tiger were four under through seven on his way to winning in the final round of a major, but then it being washed out and he loses after a final round restart?

As for the 8/3/48 Cards-Giants rainout, was the NY Times article inconclusive about a partial game being played? Seems if there was a “hardship” created by the doubleheader, that must mean they lost the previous day’s starter and had to scramble to find another. And if Koslo was a spot starter who didn’t pitch on the 3rd and had not started since the 29th, even if he had pitched some on the 2nd it seems like he’d have to be used for some innings during that doubleheader. Which to me makes it very likely that he did take his regular turn on the 3rd and got washed out after starting. Does someone have evidence that this didn’t happen, or is the burden of proof all in the other direction?

— Jackson
2:10 pm April 18th, 2008

“Golf and Tennis (the only other sports I can think of that this is an issue) pick up from the point when play was stopped and play until it’s finished.”

A lot of people suggest that the game should be suspended and continued from that point, in the event of a rain-out. But there are some problems with this idea, that usually aren’t mentioned.

First, if it isn’t possible to continue the game until later in the season (because of rain, because of the schedule, etc.), then the team’s rosters may have changed by the time the game is continued. Suppose that you had already used all your bench players at the time that the game got rained out. Then further suppose that someone who was in the game at the time of the rain-out is no longer on your roster (due to injury, or a trade, or demotion to the minors). How do you fill that person’s spot in the line-up, in order to continue the game? Do you get to use someone else from your roster to take their place, and if so, what rules are there around who you can use and who you can’t? If there has been a lot of turn-over on your roster, it may not be clear which player “replaced” this player on the roster (the one who was in the game at the time of the rain-out), vs. which other player “replaced” someone who had already been used in the original game, and thus is no longer available to play in that game.

Second, even without any roster changes, the pitchers who were available for the first game may not be the same as the pitchers who are available for the continuation of the game. Suppose that the Cardinals used Todd Wellemeyer for 4 innings, followed by Kyle McClellan for 2 innings, Anthony Reyes for 1 inning, Ryan Franklin for 1 inning, and Izzy for part of the 9th, at which point the game is rained out with the score tied. Now suppose that the game is continued from that point, but not until later in the season (due to scheduling issues, or whatever). Well, what if at the point, when the game is finally continued, your most rested bullpen pitchers just happen to be McClellan, Reyes, and Franklin, and all of your other bullpen pitchers are worn out from pitching the previous day. But you can’t use McClellan, Reyes, and Franklin, because you already used them in the first part of the game, which might have been weeks or months ago.

Bottom line, when you get into the nitty gritty details of how continuing a game would work, I think that it becomes clear why MLB doesn’t (and shouldn’t) continue games, because it just creates too many potential problems with the roster.

However, I *do* think that statistics from rained out games should count, even if the games are replayed from the beginning. (Just my opinion.) :-)

— Paul H
2:53 pm April 18th, 2008

Don’t the statistics count for games that are official ties (5+ innings)? And what makes a suspended game? One that is official and can’t be finished that day but probably can be the next?

— Jackson
3:33 pm April 18th, 2008

There’s also a financial issue. If there’s a rain suspension in the late innings, it’s easy logistically (aforementioned roster issues aside) to start from that point before the next scheduled game between the two teams. But if the two teams have finish the game on a mutual day off, either the next day or later in the season, then everything involved in holding a major league game — ticket takers, ushers, concessions, etc. — has to be fired up to play a couple innings. You could play for 20 or 30 minutes, just to send everybody home. Imagine doing all that for a game that’s interrupted in the ninth, especially if it’s not tied? Also, the players have to warm up and do all their pre-game prep for a potentially very short day of work. Who would buy a ticket to see two innings? Who would trek downtown from Granite City with their ticket from the rain day to see the last two innings? Maybe the stadium doesn’t bother to cook hot dogs or send out the beer vendors, but what a financial loss that might be when you have virtually no gate, and then no concession revenue? Never mind the broadcast schedule.

Then again, if two out of 81 games turn out like that, it can’t be worse financially than eating Spezio’s contract. Maybe a two-inning game day is a good time to have a fan appreciation event, with autograph signing on the field afterward, and let kids play catch with the players. Maybe hold a post-game concert. Of course, the teams would whine that they can’t schedule all that on a moment’s notice. And the players would rather play golf on their off days.

This is an interesting discussion.

— Fuhrig
3:50 pm April 18th, 2008

Fuhrig,

Great points. I live in southern Illinois, almost a three-hour drive from St. Louis. I’m probably not going to be making that drive for a three or four inning game — or even for a six or seven inning game. :-)

— Paul H
6:08 pm April 18th, 2008

I have been reminded that a good discussion on this topic also took place at a fan message board, Birds on the Bat. That thread can be found here (and it will also be linked to in the main body of the above article):

http://www.birdsonthebat.org/showthread.php?t=49671

dg
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— Derrick Goold
10:24 am April 21st, 2008