Izzy’s AWOL Curve
TOWER GROVE — A day after watching on television as Cardinals closer Jason Isringhausen riddled the Houston Astros with sinister curveballs for his fourth save of the season — another in a line of what were no-sweat saves — I was in Houston and asked Isringhausen why so many curves?
“I think it was only five,” Isringhausen said. “Not that many. But now if it jinxes me, I know who to blame. If it’s going good, I will use it. I’ll only go with it. There was only one of which didn’t break right for me.”
Only one — that didn’t break right.
Only one — about the number of curves he’s thrown recently.
As detailed in Joe Strauss’ game story today, the Cardinals are in a quandary not so much because the clubhouse feels for the backend of the bullpen, or because the officials plan to meet today to discuss their closer, but because the closer has doubts himself. In Colorado on Thursday morning, Isringhausen said he “not a quitter” and “there’s no way I going to walk away without getting myself through this.” Dinged by Milwaukee in the ninth inning Friday, he sounded like a pitcher who needs a break from the ninth:
“They can’t keep sending me out there when I’m pitching the way I’m pitching. We’re going to have to figure out some kind of remedy. I’m sure that remedy will give me some time off from that role and we’ll get somebody in who can do a better job right now.”
When he returns to the role, he has to be packing that curve.
On April 8, in Houston, Isringhausen breezed through the ninth. He faced three batters. Got three outs. Up. Down. Save. Cinched. Handshakes. Clubhouse. With Jason LaRue behind the plate, here is how he did it:
- vs. J.R. Towles … 3 curves, F9.
- vs. Darin Erstad … 1st-pitch fastball (93 mph). 2 great curves. K.
- vs. Michael Bourn … 1st-pitch cutter (90 mph). 3 knockout curves. K.
Isringhausent threw 11 pitches in that inning, and eight of them were curveballs. Two others were first-pitch strikes on fastball — just as he likes to do to set up that curve. It’s rare for Isringhausen to use that many curves in an outing, but it’s just as rare for him to go several outings with so few curves.
There have been some great recent studies done on the rapid decline of Isringhausen’s swing-and-misses and strikeouts, with different sides of the analysis done at cousin blog Bernie’s Extra Points and over at Viva el Birdos. Can’t hope to keep up with those soaring dissections, so let’s focus on one pitch: Isringhausen’s AWOL curve.
Using data available at Bill James Online, it’s possible to chart trends in Isringhausen’s selection of pitches. In 2008, according to the Web site, Isringhausen has thrown 286 pitches. Forty percent of them have been fastballs, 36 percent cutters and 20 percent curves. Of the pitches, he’s thrown to righthanded batters, 14 percent have been curves, and 32 percent of the pitches he’s thrown to lefties have been curves.
A look at his pitch percentages since 2002, show the steady use of a curve and the rise of his cut fastball:
2008 … Curve: 20 % … FB: 40 % … Cut: 36 %
2007 … Curve: 21 % … FB: 47 % … Cut: 26 %
2006 … Curve: 19 % … FB: 45 % … Cut: 29 %
2005 … Curve: 24 % … FB: 41 % … Cut: 21 %
2004 … Curve: 17 % … FB: 50 % … Cut: 5 %
2003 … Curve: 16 % … FB: 58 % … Cut: —
2002 … Curve: 14 % … FB: 70 % … Cut: —
A cool exercise would be comparing the above percentages to the info Bernie Miklasz provides about the swing-and-miss rates dropping over that same span of years.
In many ways this data is based on the eye of the researcher, but the advent of Pitch F/X and other means of charting pitches has made it better and better at capturing the selection and assortment a pitcher has from game to game. It was using Pitch F/X, my own notes and going back this morning to watch some of the recent save opportunities that harvested this data:
He ain’t throwing the curve at 20 percent. Not even close.
Of the 13 pitches he threw to the Brewers on Friday night, not one was a curveball. He had several cutters, a couple 93-mph fastballs and a handful of other fastballs. Not one curve. In Colorado on Wednesday, Isringhausen threw 20 pitches to the Rockies as they rallied for his fourth blown save of the season. Of the 20, two were curves.
They were both thrown to the shortstop Clint Barmes, in a 10-pitch at-bat.
In the same at-bat, Isringhausen threw his cutter for two strikes.
That and the fastball are the pitches he’s leaning on most. The “back to basics” pitches discussed in an early blog entry and a couple articles in the paper over the past week or so. He trusts his fastball and believes in his cutter. Colorado players were stunned he didn’t throw anything off-speed to three of the four batters he faced. He got ahead of them with fastballs and … then offered more.
In the game story today he describes his curve as not a “throw-for-strike pitch.” Those other pitchers are, and when they’re not he’s not going to his curve. It’s an asset he’s pitched away from. It’s a pitch he shouldn’t neglect.
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So who should be the temp called in to handle the ninth inning as Isringhausen reboots? The Cardinals have a few intriguing candidates, in and out of the major-league team, in and out of the rotation:
1. RHP Kyle McClellan – Precedence says he’ll get a shot because the Cardinals have been reluctant to move guys out of roles they’re succeeding in, i.e. Ryan Franklin now is eighth-inning Braden Looper in 2006. Plus, McClellan has a couple swing-and-miss pitches.
2. RHP Ryan Franklin – Has handled the eighth for more than a season now, could slide up to the ninth and see the other relievers fall in behind. Makes a lot of sense as the seasoned stage actor called in for the emergency spot appearance when the star goes down.
3. RHP Braden Looper – Is the only member of the Cardinals other than Isringhausen with 100 saves in his career. The former closer for Florida and the New York Mets was signed nearly three seasons ago to be the emergency replacement for Isringhausen. Instead, he’s found a new niche starting, and has said he won’t budge from it without a fight.
4. RHP Russ Springer – Veteran savvy. Steadying presence. Though a careerlong member of the bullpen has eight career saves, never more than three in a season.
5. RHP Todd Wellemeyer – Like Looper, is in a rotation that is headed for a shakeup when Mark Mulder returns, say, sometime in June. Wellemeyer has power stuff and the kind of plus-quality changeup that so many closers have been successful with in their careers. Leads team in strikeouts, has a strong K/9 rate and isn’t foreign to the bullpen. He, also like Looper, delights in being A Starter.
6. RHP Chris Perez – The prospect, the Next Closer. The Heir. Is 1-1 with a 2.16 ERA and eight saves for Triple-A Memphis. The more important numbers: He has 21 strikeouts against eight walks in 16 2/3 innings. Kid throws 98 mph, loves his slider, has been told to use his curve more and revels in being a closer. Has since college. Wouldn’t seem likely that the Cardinals would bring up a reliever and throw him immediately into the closer role, even if that’s the long-range idea for this righthander. Plus, promoting Perez means two moves — clearing a spot for him on the major-league roster and adding him to the 40-man (which, though a spot is easy to find, would start his clock).
7. Writey N. Candidate. Make a case.
So, who you got?
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
Great insights, Derrick. All his years in the league and now he’s afraid to throw his curve ball ? . He has been shaky in over half of his outings this season, in my humble opinion. At first I was upset with Iggy. After last night , I was more upset with Tony. Today , I just feel bad for Jason; he’s hanging by a thread. (BTW, I’ve always enjoyed your work.)
John LeGrand