TOWER GROVE — This afternoon in Nashville, Cardinals’ minor-leaguer Joe Mather – who has slugged his way back into the prospect pool after years of idling in High-A — cracked another home run. Last week, he had home runs in five consecutive starts, missing one start because he’d been told he might be headed to St. Louis for his big-league debut.

He now has six homers in a span of 33 at-bats. 

It’s sort of like watching Ryan Ludwick, c. 2007.

Ludwick, the Cardinals current and surging cleanup hitter, cranked his way into the major leagues with an uncanny run with Triple-A Memphis. He hit .340 with eight home runs and 36 RBIs before he was promoted to the majors. The outfielder got about 50 to 60 at-bats each month as a part-time starter for the Cardinals, and then stuck in the starting lineup for a lot of September, scoring 86 at-bats.

Since Sept. 1, 2007, Ludwick’s .646 slugging percentage ranks 4th in baseball, and the three players ahead of him — Lance Berkman, Chipper Jones and Alfonso Soriano – all had at least 10 more starts than Ludwick.

The current issue of Sports Illustrated takes a look the “Bizarro Supermen” of baseball — all of the unknown and no-name players and teams that have flipped the standings and randomized the leaderboards around the majors. (The cover features artwork by Spider-Man-powered penciler Mark Bagley; can you spot the Batman emblem?) Ludwick is listed on the “All-Bizarro Team”, along with the Ryan Theriots, Nate McLouths and Carlos Quentins of the big leagues (not to be confused with the various Justice Leagues). And Baseball Prospectus’ Nate Silver offers up his take and verdict: Real or Fluke.

Ludwick, like McLouth but not Quentin, gets the latter.

Harsh, but sure Ludwick isn’t going to keep hitting .341 clip or mashing a home run every 10 1/2 at-bats. He’s getting a lot of All-Star push on the message boards and such — and sure, he, Todd Wellemeyer and Albert Pujols may be the All-Star reps today; today — but he’s going to cool down. There’s a different between being on pace and having in the pocket.

Ludwick is still trying to get enough plate appearances to qualify with the league leaders this season. After Tuesday’s game, he was two plate appearances shy of ranking the league leaders for the averages/percentages. (This moment: His .754 slugging is second among hitters with at least 50 PAs to Berkman’s, and they are the only two players with this .700 Club.) Using league rules, Ludwick could qualify with five PAs tonight. If he continues starting on this road, he should rank by the weekend:

48 team games — 149 PAs to qualify — Ludwick has 147

49 team games — 152 PAs to qualify — Ludwick has ???

50 team games — 155 PAs to qualify — Ludwick has ???

51 team games — 158 PAs to qualify — Ludwick has ??? 

But this run didn’t come out of nowhere. Like McLouth, there were hints.

Dial the stats back to Sept. 6, 2007, about the day that Ludwick took on a real regular starting role with the Cardinals, and his .658 slugging percentage is the third-best in baseball among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances. His numbers overall from that span to tonight’s game, rank well with the All-Stars you’d expect. His 15 home runs are tied for the 12th-most in baseball,  tied for ninth in the National League. His 46 RBIs are tied for 22nd-most in baseball, 17th in the NL.

The top 10, since Sept. 6, ranked by slugging, all .599 or better (leader in italics; GS — Games Started):

1. Lance Berkman, HOU … .714 SLG … 245 AB … 22 HR … 57 RBI … 66 GS … .355 BA

2. Chipper Jones, ATL … .682 SLG … 233 AB … 17 HR … 53 RBI … 61 GS … .403 BA

3. Ryan Ludwick, STL … .658 SLG … 202 AB … 15 HR … 46 RBI … 46 GS … .337 BA

4. A. Soriano, CHC … .644 SLG … 236 AB … 23 HR … 51 RBI … 55 GS … .288 BA

5. Matt Holliday, COL … .638 SLG … 257 AB … 17 HR … 49 RBI … 65 GS … .339 BA

6. Geovany Soto, CHC … .637 SLG … 193 AB … 12 HR … 39 RBI … 50 GS … .337 BA

7. Albert Pujols, STL … .630 SLG … 243 AB … 13 HR … 50 RBI … 66 GS … .370 BA

8. David Ortiz, BOS … .612 SLG … 250 AB … 19 HR … 60 RBI … 64 GS … .304 BA

9. J. Hamilton, CN/TX … .605 SLG … 200 AB … 12 HR … 53 RBI … 48 GS … .325 BA

10. Nate McLouth, PIT … .599 SLG … 222 AB … 14 HR … 45 RBI … 55 GS … .316 BA

Not too many nobodies on that list, and many of them have a third of a season in that span. Not really the kind of sample size you easily dismiss. The database over at Baseball Musings allows you to do more with Ludwick’s numbers, molding and shaping the rankings and dates like Play-Doh for good comparisons.

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