Pujols’ plus/minus on the bases
TOWER GROVE — One thing about a player being on base all the time: he gets loads of practice running them and has plenty of opportunity to excel — and fail. Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols showed this past week that he can pound out the headlines with more than just his bat; carrying a big stick does not require always walking softly.
In the span of a few games, Pujols showed the plus and minus of his aggressive baserunning.
At Coors Field last week, Pujols was on second base in the ninth inning with Rick Ankiel batting. Jose Oquendo, or someone in the dugout, gave him the steal sign before the first pitch to Ankiel. Pujols waited a few pitches.
“He had to catch his breath,” manager Tony La Russa said. “On a play like that only works if you get a good jump. He knew he had to wait like he did to get that jump.”
Pujols broke. Ankiel swung. He chopped a slow grounder to second baseman, and by the time the grounder was fielder, Pujols was rounding third. When Rockies’ second baseman Omar Quintanilla didn’t look to third … well, you know how this goes. Pujols scores. On one play, he ran further than the hit went that scored him. A few days later, Pujols made three outs on the basepaths, including twice being the third out of the inning. La Russa is careful to say he won’t “coach the aggressiveness out of a player” — even when it means he sometimes blows through a stop sign — and that Pujols’ aggressiveness on the basepaths pays off more than it costs.
This won’t surprise you: There’s a stat to verify that.
Some fun with numbers as the Pirates come in for a three-game series.
The Cardinals last year were not a fast team, were not close to a stolen base threat, were seemingly not much at all on the basepaths. Yet, no team in the National League went 1st to 3rd like they did. They were downright greyhounds 1st to 3rd. According to The Bill James Handbook, here were the top teams going 1st to 3rd:
- LA (go-go) Angels … 277 chances, 100 1st to 3rds.
- Minnesota Twins … 240 chances, 89 1st to 3rds.
- Cardinals … 274 chances, 83 1st to 3rds.
- Oakland A’s … 239 chances, 74 1st to 3rds.
- NY Yankees … 263 chances, 73 1st to 3rds.
The Cardinals weren’t quite as good at the other running numbers kept — 2nd to home (195 chances, 111 scores) and 1st to home (62 chances, 24 scores) — and certainly did not rank high in the better number: Baserunning Plus/Minus. The number, called “BR Gain” in the Handbook, represents the number of bases gained or lost against the average, leveraged against the outs made on the bases.
The Cardinals were a minus-8. The Royals, for context, were +69. The NL Central:
- Milwaukee … +29
- Houston … -49
- Pittsburgh … -21
- Chicago Cubs … -28
- Cincinnati … -33
The stat is also kept on an individual basis. In my scorebook, I have a shorthand notation for extra bases taken. By no means is it enough to chart or calculate extra bases taken. But in the context of covering a game it’s helpful to see that arrow swooping around second base to designate the runner took third when his teammate knocked a base hit.
It terms of baserunning plus/minus (and the swooping arrows) Pujols has done well.
When different magazines and newspapers do their tools surveys – Best Power, Best Arm, Best Glove, Best Clutch, Best This, Best That — the best baserunners used to have a distinct Cardinals flare. Scott Rolen and Larry Walker, teammates with the Cardinals in late 2004 and 2005, were widely regarded by opposing managers and scouts as two of the savviest baserunners in the game. What our eyeballs told us, the numbers confirmed.
Again, going back to Bill James Online, Rolen and Walker had solid plus/minus:
ROLEN — +26 in 2004, +8 in 2006, +25 from 2002-07
WALKER — +21 in 2002, +39 from 2002-05
Using those same numbers, Pujols is a +36 from 2002-07. In his career, he’s gone 1st to 3rd in 39 percent of his chances since 2002. He’s scored from 2nd in 73 percent of his chances since 2002, and he’s gone 1st to home on extra-base hits 54 percent of the time since 2002. In total, BJO has Pujols taking 126 extra bases. According to this metric, Pujols has consistently been a plus baserunner.
Until this season.
So far, he is a minus-9.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between.
A case of “superman syndrome”, Pujols is trying to compensate for a less potent lineup.
Perhaps?
As usual, a good article Derrick, but I just saw the video of the Molina ejection last night and wanted to express an opinion on it - an opinion that I would bet is similar to what Tony said to the umpire.
Yadi tilted his head around and obviously said something to the umpire. His comment didn’t last but a second and no one could accuse him of trying to show anyone up with it. It was subtle.
Then the umpire proceeds to walk in front of Molina, ostensibly to brush off home plate and in doing so goes face to face with him. No question - none - that the umpire was going out of his way to escalate the situation. This is the point where a decent guy that knows what he is doing handles it way differnt than this umpire did.
If anyone ought to be suspended for a couple games it ought to be the umpire. It is a no brainer.
Agree with you about the umpire. There are several like-minded ones unfortunately, Cuzzi and the ‘original’ at it -Joe West come to mind. Need someone like alderson riding herd on them, that behavior quieted while he was over the umpires
I don’t understand, was his +36 an average from the years 2002-2007, or was he something like +6 for all of those 6 years??
Quick question: When you say, “he’s gone 1st to 3rd in 39 percent of his chances”, does this mean - 1.) The runner went first to third base on a single 39% of the time (other times staying at second base or being thrown out); or 2.) The runner went first to third successfully 39% of the time while being thrown out at third the other 61%?
Fine questions. The “+39 from 2002-05″ is a cummulative number, not an average number. … The percentage you ask about is based on the number of successful times going 1st to 3rd divided by the number of chances a player had to go 1st to 3rd on a single by a teammate. When it comes to the Cardinals, as mentioned above, the team had 274 chances to go 1st to 3rd on a single and did so 83 times for a percentage of 30.3.
What that means for the other 69.7 percent is that the runner only got to second or was thrown out — whatever happened that he did not get to 3rd.
dg
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dg, it’s interesting that the Cards have such a high relative percentage, even though they (especially last year) had little team speed. Do you think this is because they are superior base runners, or is it because the Cardinal hitters hit to the gaps more than other teams (thereby making it easier to take the extra base), or does TLR call for the hit and run more often that other managers, or is the Secret Weapon more aggressive than other third base coaches? Or all of the above?
Kenny,
Some reasons:
– Good, technical baserunners for the most part, who are taught to push for the extra base, esp. going first to third. This number is runners going 1st to 3rd on singles, so shots to the gaps aren’t applicable.
– And the hit and run. La Russa does love calling for it. He’ll do it to get a hitter going; he’ll do it to test a defense; he’ll do it with Albert Pujols up and a game in the balance. He likes the odds, and sure that does give the runner and extra chance to get the extra base — which is another reason why La Russa is fond of the H&R.
dg
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The stats here show that Al has been a smart base runner in the past. He plays agressive and when protection is poor behind him,he feels the need to try and force the action.
This calls for the birds to aquire protection behind Albert. What are the chances that Pittsburgh’s Jason Bay could suit up in Cardinal colors?
What is with Cardinals Nation’s long-running fascination with Jason Bay? It seems like the past three, four seasons fans have been focused on acquiring Bay, concocting trade scenarios that land Bay or waiting for Bay to slip to free agency to sign Bay. It’s an interesting fancrush.
dg
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