Pujols’ plus/minus on the bases
TOWER GROVE — One thing about a player being on base all the time: he gets loads of practice running them and has plenty of opportunity to excel — and fail. Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols showed this past week that he can pound out the headlines with more than just his bat; carrying a big stick does not require always walking softly.
In the span of a few games, Pujols showed the plus and minus of his aggressive baserunning.
At Coors Field last week, Pujols was on second base in the ninth inning with Rick Ankiel batting. Jose Oquendo, or someone in the dugout, gave him the steal sign before the first pitch to Ankiel. Pujols waited a few pitches.
“He had to catch his breath,” manager Tony La Russa said. “On a play like that only works if you get a good jump. He knew he had to wait like he did to get that jump.”
Pujols broke. Ankiel swung. He chopped a slow grounder to second baseman, and by the time the grounder was fielder, Pujols was rounding third. When Rockies’ second baseman Omar Quintanilla didn’t look to third … well, you know how this goes. Pujols scores. On one play, he ran further than the hit went that scored him. A few days later, Pujols made three outs on the basepaths, including twice being the third out of the inning. La Russa is careful to say he won’t “coach the aggressiveness out of a player” — even when it means he sometimes blows through a stop sign — and that Pujols’ aggressiveness on the basepaths pays off more than it costs.
This won’t surprise you: There’s a stat to verify that.
Some fun with numbers as the Pirates come in for a three-game series.
The Cardinals last year were not a fast team, were not close to a stolen base threat, were seemingly not much at all on the basepaths. Yet, no team in the National League went 1st to 3rd like they did. They were downright greyhounds 1st to 3rd. According to The Bill James Handbook, here were the top teams going 1st to 3rd:
- LA (go-go) Angels … 277 chances, 100 1st to 3rds.
- Minnesota Twins … 240 chances, 89 1st to 3rds.
- Cardinals … 274 chances, 83 1st to 3rds.
- Oakland A’s … 239 chances, 74 1st to 3rds.
- NY Yankees … 263 chances, 73 1st to 3rds.
The Cardinals weren’t quite as good at the other running numbers kept — 2nd to home (195 chances, 111 scores) and 1st to home (62 chances, 24 scores) — and certainly did not rank high in the better number: Baserunning Plus/Minus. The number, called “BR Gain” in the Handbook, represents the number of bases gained or lost against the average, leveraged against the outs made on the bases.
The Cardinals were a minus-8. The Royals, for context, were +69. The NL Central:
- Milwaukee … +29
- Houston … -49
- Pittsburgh … -21
- Chicago Cubs … -28
- Cincinnati … -33
The stat is also kept on an individual basis. In my scorebook, I have a shorthand notation for extra bases taken. By no means is it enough to chart or calculate extra bases taken. But in the context of covering a game it’s helpful to see that arrow swooping around second base to designate the runner took third when his teammate knocked a base hit.
It terms of baserunning plus/minus (and the swooping arrows) Pujols has done well.
When different magazines and newspapers do their tools surveys – Best Power, Best Arm, Best Glove, Best Clutch, Best This, Best That — the best baserunners used to have a distinct Cardinals flare. Scott Rolen and Larry Walker, teammates with the Cardinals in late 2004 and 2005, were widely regarded by opposing managers and scouts as two of the savviest baserunners in the game. What our eyeballs told us, the numbers confirmed.
Again, going back to Bill James Online, Rolen and Walker had solid plus/minus:
ROLEN — +26 in 2004, +8 in 2006, +25 from 2002-07
WALKER — +21 in 2002, +39 from 2002-05
Using those same numbers, Pujols is a +36 from 2002-07. In his career, he’s gone 1st to 3rd in 39 percent of his chances since 2002. He’s scored from 2nd in 73 percent of his chances since 2002, and he’s gone 1st to home on extra-base hits 54 percent of the time since 2002. In total, BJO has Pujols taking 126 extra bases. According to this metric, Pujols has consistently been a plus baserunner.
Until this season.
So far, he is a minus-9.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
A case of “superman syndrome”, Pujols is trying to compensate for a less potent lineup.
Perhaps?