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05.13.2008 2:32 pm

Pujols’ plus/minus on the bases

St. Louis Post-Dispatch
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TOWER GROVE — One thing about a player being on base all the time: he gets loads of practice running them and has plenty of opportunity to excel — and fail. Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols showed this past week that he can pound out the headlines with more than just his bat; carrying a big stick does not require always walking softly.

In the span of a few games, Pujols showed the plus and minus of his aggressive baserunning.

At Coors Field last week, Pujols was on second base in the ninth inning with Rick Ankiel batting. Jose Oquendo, or someone in the dugout, gave him the steal sign before the first pitch to Ankiel. Pujols waited a few pitches.

“He had to catch his breath,” manager Tony La Russa said. “On a play like that only works if you get a good jump. He knew he had to wait like he did to get that jump.”

Pujols broke. Ankiel swung. He chopped a slow grounder to second baseman, and by the time the grounder was fielder, Pujols was rounding third. When Rockies’ second baseman Omar Quintanilla didn’t look to third … well, you know how this goes. Pujols scores. On one play, he ran further than the hit went that scored him. A few days later, Pujols made three outs on the basepaths, including twice being the third out of the inning. La Russa is careful to say he won’t “coach the aggressiveness out of a player” — even when it means he sometimes blows through a stop sign — and that Pujols’ aggressiveness on the basepaths pays off more than it costs.

This won’t surprise you: There’s a stat to verify that.

Some fun with numbers as the Pirates come in for a three-game series.

The Cardinals last year were not a fast team, were not close to a stolen base threat, were seemingly not much at all on the basepaths. Yet, no team in the National League went 1st to 3rd like they did. They were downright greyhounds 1st to 3rd. According to The Bill James Handbook, here were the top teams going 1st to 3rd:

  1. LA (go-go) Angels … 277 chances, 100 1st to 3rds.
  2. Minnesota Twins … 240 chances, 89 1st to 3rds.
  3. Cardinals … 274 chances, 83 1st to 3rds.
  4. Oakland A’s … 239 chances, 74 1st to 3rds.
  5. NY Yankees … 263 chances, 73 1st to 3rds.

The Cardinals weren’t quite as good at the other running numbers kept — 2nd to home (195 chances, 111 scores) and 1st to home (62 chances, 24 scores) — and certainly did not rank high in the better number: Baserunning Plus/Minus. The number, called “BR Gain” in the Handbook, represents the number of bases gained or lost against the average, leveraged against the outs made on the bases.

The Cardinals were a minus-8. The Royals, for context, were +69. The NL Central:

  • Milwaukee … +29
  • Houston … -49
  • Pittsburgh … -21
  • Chicago Cubs … -28
  • Cincinnati … -33

The stat is also kept on an individual basis. In my scorebook, I have a shorthand notation for extra bases taken. By no means is it enough to chart or calculate extra bases taken. But in the context of covering a game it’s helpful to see that arrow swooping around second base to designate the runner took third when his teammate knocked a base hit.

It terms of baserunning plus/minus (and the swooping arrows) Pujols has done well.

When different magazines and newspapers do their tools surveys – Best Power, Best Arm, Best Glove, Best Clutch, Best This, Best That — the best baserunners used to have a distinct Cardinals flare. Scott Rolen and Larry Walker, teammates with the Cardinals in late 2004 and 2005, were widely regarded by opposing managers and scouts as two of the savviest baserunners in the game. What our eyeballs told us, the numbers confirmed.

Again, going back to Bill James Online, Rolen and Walker had solid plus/minus:

ROLEN — +26 in 2004, +8 in 2006, +25 from 2002-07

WALKER — +21 in 2002, +39 from 2002-05

Using those same numbers, Pujols is a +36 from 2002-07. In his career, he’s gone 1st to 3rd in 39 percent of his chances since 2002. He’s scored from 2nd in 73 percent of his chances since 2002, and he’s gone 1st to home on extra-base hits 54 percent of the time since 2002. In total, BJO has Pujols taking 126 extra bases. According to this metric, Pujols has consistently been a plus baserunner.

Until this season.

So far, he is a minus-9.

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15 comments

Comments are closed.

I LOVE THAT PUJOLS HAS A PASSION FOR THE GAME AND IS AGGRESSIVE IN PLAYING. HE ALWAYS BRINGS A SPARK TO THE FANS AND TEAM MEMBERS. I LIKE TO SEE HIM REST MORE BUT THAT IS JUST ALBERT.
NEE NEE

— sharon
10:53 am May 14th, 2008

Derrick,
I think Albert is trying to make teams pay for walking him, by being aggressive running the bases. Unfortunately, with the team struggling scoring runs, losing a runner because of poor judgement is magnified. Albert needs to be patient at the plate and smart running the bases. Eventually, someone will hit behind Albert.

— Dave
12:51 pm May 14th, 2008

Derrick,

I’m sure you read Mo’s chat. What did he say that made news? What’s your flash news judgment? No Reyes trade until July (because we won’t know about Carp, Muld, Clem until then)! Was it me, or did Mo sound open to dealing Chris Duncan once he starts slugging again?

He made an insightful point about headlines vs. coverage, which shows that he’s a savvy and intelligent reader, an attribute that usually translates to a lot of other realms.

— Fuhrig
1:45 pm May 14th, 2008

Fuhrig,

Just had a chance to look over the whole chat, and I was struck by its candidness. Especially when it came to the answer about Clement. Not too often you hear a GM to say “if … then I made a mistake”, let alone type it. As for news, there were dollops.

This has been said before, but not in so many words:

John Mozeliak: Our strategy will be to take the best player available, and if that means we have to go above the slot then we are prepared to do it. I would also add that we want to sign the best players we can, but we do have a value system the players meet for us to invest in them. Our scouts play a huge role in this.

The answers about trading Reyes and considering a trade for Chris Duncan are not unusual from Mozeliak. He is an assets-based manager. He likes to keep in mind how players will increase the value of the team — by playing for it or by being dealt for someone who will play for it. Ask about Adam Wainwright and you are probably going to get an answer about how his value to the team is atop the rotation. Ask about Colby Rasmus and his value to the team is what he’ll contribute in the future. Ask about Bryan Anderson and his value to the team does include what return he could get in trade. Other players are no different.

I would also like to hear where this answer could have gone:

Larry Harnly: How would you critique coverage of the Cardinals by the Post-Dispatch? If you have one criticism, what would it be? I believe accuracy to be on paramount importance. Do you believe coverage is accurate?

John Mozeliak: I could have so much fun with this question …

dg
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— Derrick Goold
3:32 pm May 14th, 2008

I believe he is being more aggressive to make up for all the extra walks he is getting and the reduced amount of rbi as a result. he overdid reducing strikeouts 2 years running and got into defensive swings but each time worked it out and regained his normal approach so I am hopeful he will do so again with this issue. I note that the effort was also ultimately worthwhile as his K’s have gone down over time.

He needs to stop this one though; frankly, good MLB defense would have had him easily at the plate in the one that worked so well

he is also swinging at pitches he normally wouldn’t as a result of what I’ll call frustration - though he hasn’t expressed much that I have read.

— mikkyld
11:24 pm May 15th, 2008

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