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06.27.2008 1:14 pm

How Mulder Could Finally Find Relief

St. Louis Post-Dispatch
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TOWER GROVE — Wrote recently about how Mark Mulder settled on his lower arm slot after first joking about slinging the ball from the sidearm and remaking himself as a wily lefty specialist coming out of the bullpen. As he thought more about it, the idea to drop his arm began to take root and germinate.

Now he’s throwing from a different slot, when he’s throwing.

So, about that second part of Mulder’s joke …

Hall of Famer Rick Hummel detailed the current blown-save shambles of the Cardinals bullpen in today’s paper and on Thursday lefty Randy Flores went on the disabled list with a swollen left ankle. One of the reasons the Cardinals’ bullpen appears to have frayed recently is the unsettled nature of its relievers roles. Kyle McClellan is the setup righthander, except when he’s not. Ron Villone is the lefty specialist, except when he’s not. Flores was the late-inning, lefty lockdown, except when he wasn’t. Jason Isringhausen isn’t the closer, Ryan Franklin is. For now. Etc. Etc. Injuries, inconsistencies and sheer usage have scrambled the cohesion that made the bullpen a strength just a few weeks ago.

Columnist Bernie Miklasz was earliest – and 4 a.m. is really early! — to dissect the bullpen, doing so recently at his juggernaut blog. He makes the point that Flores has struggled against lefties and righties, and that Villone has done well as a lefty specialist, or LOOGY. So, the Cardinals — in their quest to settle the bullpen by settling on its roles — must decide:

  • Does Villone and his .159 BA against for lefties mean he’s the specialist?
  • Does Villone’s ability to shoulder innings mean he’s the long-inning guy?

But an alternative should be looked into. How can the Cardinals spell relief?

M-U-L-D-E-R

The lefty was not strong enough in a bullpen session at Detroit to merit starting Saturday against Kansas City, as hoped. That means his major-league return has been pushed back — but do the Cardinals really want it to be against the New York Mets or Chicago Cubs, this week’s approaching opponents? (We’ve seen that Mets game before.) This is probably not the time for Mulder to make the 203rd start of his career.

But it could be right for his 203rd appearance, his first in relief.

For numbers of reasons, the big lefty’s splits against lefthanded hitters don’t offer much help in how he would fare as a reliever. Some select splits:

2006 vs. Lefties … .241 BA/.299 OBP/.361 SLG … 19 K, 5 BB, 83 AB

2005 vs. Lefties … .201 BA/.283 OBP/.317 SLG … 30 K, 15 BB, 139 AB

Last 3 yrs. … .227 BA/.296 OBP/.369 SLG … 50 K, 20 BB, 233 AB

Career … .263 BA/—- OBP/ —- SLG … 212 K, 86 BB, 1,046 AB

These numbers are skewed many ways. First, the kind of lineups Mulder mostly saw. Second, most of the stats are from when Mulder would acknowledge he was a different pitcher — some from when he was healthy (career), some from when he was pitching through problems (2006). He has described his current arm slot as not all that different from how he threw with Oakland, but it’s enough to possible dismiss his pre-surgery statistics. So read into them cautiously.

What could spur the Cardinals to consider Mulder as a bullpen option goes beyond the wish to recoup something from their investment, goes around the numbers above, even trumps the Cardinals need for a goose to the bullpen. It starts where so many things do nowadays for Mulder: With his recent rehab assignment.

Before skipping his scheduled third rehab start with back spasms, here is how he did:

As with any rehab start, the truth is found beneath the box score. It’s almost better to go batter-by-batter, even pitch-by-pitch to judge a rehabbing pitcher. There’s so much the line doesn’t say: Velocity? Total groundballs? Bloop hits? Frozen ropes? Movement? Those aren’t columns in most box scores. But, when it comes to Mulder, a look at the batter-by-batter in these two rehab starts — with the new arm angle — does reveal something.

He’s cooled lefthanded hitters.

In his 8 2/3 innings on his recent rehab start, Mulder had seven at-bats against a lefthanded hitter. Triple-A Albuquerque had two lefties in the lineup against Mulder; Northwest Arkansas had one. Here is how each did:

vs. NWA

1st inning, Kila Kaaihue … Foul 91 mph; Foul 91 mph; Struck out looking. Curve.

4th inning, Kaaihue … Foul 90 mph; 3u, bounced out on curve.

vs. ALB

1st inning, Lorenzo Scott … Six-pitch, called strike 3.

1st inning, John Baker … Four-pitch, infield single to second base.

1st inning, Scott … First-pitch swinging, groundball single to right field.

2nd inning, Baker … Two pitches, 4-3.

3rd inning, Scott … 10-pitch, swinging strikeout, K 2-3.

It’s a tremendously small sample size and not the level of hitter that he would have to face in the role, but against lefties Mulder has held them to a 2-for-7 line with three strikeouts, no walks, two groundball base hits. In the game at Springfield, he was able to riddle the lefty with his curve coming out of the 2 o’clock arm slot that he’s been working on. He also was able to locate his sinker to what would be the inside edge of the plate to a lefthander.

It may not be feasible, or even agreeable, but it’s at least something to think about.

***

UPDATE 5:20 p.m.: This evening the Cardinals have activated Mulder from the disabled list and added him to the major-league roster. Look for coverage on StlToday.com and in The Post-Dispatch for how the Cardinals plan to use the lefty.

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19 comments

Comments are closed.

i have been writing for weeks in these comments that the mulder solution is as a lefty specialist out of the pen. this gives him a chance to remake himself as a useful cog to fill a rather urgent need. best case, he builds confidence and velocity and ends up starting again. worst case, he can’t do too much damage as a lefty specialist from the pen. it is just logical.
now, having said that, it is a huge adjustment mentally and physically to completely change from lifelong starter to that role. but at this point in his career, does he really have that much to lose?

— roger from lake tahoe
1:37 pm June 27th, 2008

DG…on the Mulder LOOGY speculations…is there a viable comparison to say, Zito?

— ExistentialHumanist
2:02 pm June 27th, 2008

ExHuman,

Please elaborate. Zito is in the rotation, and he pitched well enough against Cleveland. Are you wondering if Zito is following the same route? Righthanders are pounding him with a .502 slugging percentage. Lefties are slugging .308 off of him.

dg
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— Derrick Goold
2:20 pm June 27th, 2008

Derrick–

It’s an interesting idea. Two questions: 1. Can Mulder warm up fast enough to be a viable late-inning bullpen option?; and 2. Would the front office be concerned about his losing starter conditioning? Put another way, would they rather see him as a pure starter and look elsewhere for a LOOGy?

— Red in Chicago
2:35 pm June 27th, 2008

Why not try it, the worst Mulder can do is be just as bad as Parisi or Flores

— Michael
2:45 pm June 27th, 2008

Very interesting stuff, DG… kudos on the research.

I can’t buy in, though…

Then again, how could he do worse than our pal, Flo?

-B

— Bernie Miklasz
2:57 pm June 27th, 2008

Chicago Red,

1. That’s a question that would be answered over time, as Mulder earns the right to be a late-inning reliever. He would have to do some early-inning work first. Sort of move him into the Villone role and have Villone work against lefties for a bit, right?

2. Not sure the Cardinals can quibble with that. They have a need in the bullpen. They have a pitcher they need to find out if they can use. Demand, meet the closest Supply available.

Bernie,

You’ve raised the bar. Blogging at 4 a.m. Commenting at 3 p.m. I’m not sure Cereal Blogger or Multitasking Miklasz even suit as nicknames anymore. Too bad King of All Media is taken.

I will just start calling you … Ubernie.

dg
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— Derrick Goold
3:20 pm June 27th, 2008

What about throwing Carp in the pen? After he comes back we don’t want him to fall into the same path as Mulder with all these plaguing injuries. He could stick to the bullpen for the rest of the year and work on getting back to 100%. Our starters are strong, it’s the pen that’s been killing us. Carp would make a great addition to that and could eat up a ton of innings too.

— Steve
3:23 pm June 27th, 2008

Everybody knows Mulder is through. The trade for him was the worst since the Steve Carlton trade.

— Bill Connors
3:25 pm June 27th, 2008

Its just the same old experiment with Mulder. Realistically, how do you groove a new pitching motion in 3 weeks? He might be better off coaching the younger pitchers as an adjunct professor. He’s a nice guy, and I don’t like seeing him getting shelled.

— bostonbird
5:18 pm June 27th, 2008

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