Tale of the Take: The Mulder Swap
TOWER GROVE — Cardinals forever rehabbing lefty Mark Mulder was supposed to take the mound for Triple-A Memphis tonight in what could have been his final minor-league start before returning the major leagues. And, in a coincidence only a sportswriter could love, a certain righthander, Danny Haren, was starting tonight in Fenway, fittingly floating into town in the wake of the Cardinals visit.
Well, Haren happened — to the tune of seven shutout against Boston.
The wait continues to Mulder.
At the same time Haren schooled Boston in a duel against Red Sox ace Josh Beckett, Mulder was scratched from his start in Nashville. “Stiff back,” read the diagnosis from the Cardinals’ officials. Mulder is considered day-to-day, which is progress for a starting pitching nearing the end of constantly rehabbing from two shoulder surgeries in two seasons. It’s not clear how Monday’s miss impacts the plan to have Mulder go three innings or so Monday and then jet to the majors in time to make the start Saturday in Kansas City.
It’s been clear for awhile what Oakland got out of the Mulder deal.
Before the 2005 season, the Cardinals sent Haren, reliever Kiko Calero and prospect Daric Barton to the Athletics for Mulder. The lefty had been one of the winningest pitchers in the game — the winningest lefty around — for several years before he came to the Cardinals. That and he was signed through 2006. There was a lot to like about the deal — even if it meant giving up the most promising young starting pitcher the system had.
This past winter, Oakland flipped Haren for a stockpile of players from Arizona.
Here’s how the deal worked for the A’s:
Turned LHP Mulder into …
RHP Calero … who was recently DFA’d after a 60-day DL stint.
1B Barton … blocked here, starting there with .227/.335/.332.
RHP Haren … went 43-34, 3.64 then flipped him and pitcher Connor Robertson to Arizona for …
LHP Brett Anderson … pitching in Double-A
RHP Dana Eveland … 5-5, 3.51 for A’s this year.
LHP Greg Smith … 4-5, 3.51 for A’s this season.
OF Carlos Gonzalez … .247/.284/.416 for A’s.
OF Aaron Cunningham … playing in Double-A.
1B Chris Carter… 20 HRs already in High-A.
As part of interleague play this year, Oakland visited Arizona — Haren even pitched against his former team — so naturally the conversation was about how the trade was mutually beneficial for both clubs. From the Cardinals point of view, it’s gotta be hard to comprehend the haul that one trade triggered for the A’s. Consider that for Mulder, the A’s got ended up with eight players, including two members of its starting rotation, a couple rising outfield prospects (including one who is the majors now) and of course whatever Haren gave them with the third-lowest ERA in the American League in 2007.
Of course, many trades can be mauled in hindsight, and the severity of Mulder’s shoulder injury and the erosion of his mechanics is far more than a mitigating circumstance. A few weeks ago, colleague Joe Strauss ran through the investment made on Mulder and the return in his Cardinals Insider. The absence of Mulder as much as the performance of Haren is what makes the trade so lopsided.
The physical reason is well-documented. Surgeries happen. As Kyle Lohse said earlier this season: “It’s not as if we’re doing something entirely natural with our arms. They’re going to hurt every once in awhile.” But the raw numbers, taken free of such context, are just staggering. Check out the wins, the losses, the innings, and the ERA that Mulder has posted as a Cardinal vs. what the Athletics have received:
MULDER, STL … 22-18 … 309 1/3 innings … 5.00 ERA
THE HAUL, OAK … 52-44 … 842 innings … 3.59 ERA
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
Isn’t it ironic that in response to not “missing any bats” in the 2004 WS the Redbirds stated goal was to find someone that could, and that someone ended up being Mark Mulder, never the King of K’s? In return, the Cards gave up a guy that struck out 192 last year. Ouch.
To piggyback what Bill Rogers said above… with Mulder’s uber-collapse the last 2 months of 2004, has anyone ever thought to ask (or asked) Billy Beane 2 questions?, “What did you know, and when did you know it?”
Having seen Mulder for 5 years since I live in NoCal, I liked the deal, thinking “Muldew” would win 25 a year in StL. I think we all hated to see Haren go. It’s painful to see Haren pitch, it really is.
You think you’re unhappy about this trade now, wait till the little bears acquire Haren before the trade deadline as is currently rumored and sign him to a long term deal to torment us 3 or 4 times every year.
I think we have to be realistic about Mulder, he’s probably done. If he pitches against KC this weekend, I’ll bet that he’ll get torched. How many soft throwing lefty’s with command issues are going to be successful in the Bigs? I hope I’m wrong, but I really don’t seeing him being an upgrade over what we currently have when healthy. If Wellemeyer is truly OK, then you really can’t argue that Lohse, Wellemeyer, Looper and Piniero haven’t given us a lot of quality starts and I can’t see Mulder replacing any of them the way they are currently pitching. I assume Wainwright is going to be gone longer than advertised with his tendon issue, but unless Mulder is much better than he has been, I’ll take my chances with Boggs.
Bottom line is that trades more often than not don’t work out for both clubs and we clearly got the short end of this one. My only concern is did we really look into Mulder’s health before we pulled the trigger. There seems to have been concerns voiced about his declining performance/health prior to the trade on a number of fronts.
Hindsight is obviously 20-20. At the time, I thought it was a good deal. And compared to Steve Carlton for Rick Wise, this is nothing.
Problem was PE testing started in 2005. Mulder lost mph once he and fellow west coasters could no longer make trips to Mexico.
Hey, grow up people. In this game, it’s all about the W’s. Low ERA’s are great when you’re negotiating, but the bottom line is Mulder’s win pct. is .550, “The Haul”’s win pct. - .541. It’s a wash. Don’t try to make Jocketty out to be a rube who got fleeced. Injuries happen, and you usually can’t predict them.
If everyone wasn’t in love with Ankiel, that deal would have never happened. We could have traded Ankiel to Oakland instead of Haren, but the Cards wouldn’t let anyone touch their young Musuial. I love Ankiel more than anyone, and what he’s done is unbelievable, but what would you rather have, a pretty good outfielder or a top of the rotation starter?
Interesting discussion, particularly Bill Rogers comment above about ‘whether Mulder was already hurt when traded’. I’ve wondered to what extent the situation is simply ‘buyer beware’. Does it all hinge on the buyer’s opportunity for a physical exam? Is it a given that players and teams have no obligation to reveal injuries, and will attempt to conceal them?
It is too bad that this deal occurred, as I would love to see Haren in a Cardinals uniform today. The problem is that we won a World Series since then, and I would not change the deal in hindsight. What happens if Haren starts Game 1 of the WS in Detroit and gets shelled? The entire complexion of the series changes, and the Cards might not win it. I’ll take Mulder, bum shoulder and all, and that beautiful WS flag hanging in Busch over Dan Haren, Daric Barton, and Kiko Calero.
What struck me — more than the W-L, more than the ERA — was the quantity of innings (and starts) that Oakland got from that one deal. The Cardinals have personified the value of known quantities when it comes to starting pitchers. Think back to the hallmark of the 100-win teams: A steady rotation. Consider what’s happened the past two seasons: A mad scramble for healthy, available, emergency (Tomo Ohka!) arms to come up with any rotation possible at that time.
The Wild Cards in this trade are injuries and the World Series win. It ate at Mulder that all he got to contribute to that season was a few wins — and a prominent role in the on-field celebration after the final out. He was brought to St. Louis as the final-kick for such a championship, and he here it happened and he was … injured.
The hip trouble has passed. Mulder believes the drop in velocity, the shoulder injuries, the trouble — all of that was part of and even the culmination of a steady erosion of his mechanics and health.
It started before he came to the Cardinals, because as he said in Strauss’ article he won 16 games with “smoke and mirrors.”
dg
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Derrick,
Thanks for the answer about Mulder’s hip. Is his new arm slot something he could have started two years ago instead of surgery? I would think pitchers in earlier generations might have often resorted to alternative mechanics, in the age before sophisticated orthopedic surgeries allowed such injuries to be “fixed.”
Let us know when you might be taking PCQs again. I prefer send my questions to you, because it saves the trouble of inventing bizarre Chatmeister salutations for Strauss.