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07.23.2008 8:58 am

Best Tools ‘08: Fast, But Also Best

St. Louis Post-Dispatch
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TOWER GROVE — The difference between the fastest baserunner and best baserunner is the difference between, say, Michael Bourn and Scott Rolen, Willy Taveras and Larry Walker.

Fast doesn’t not always mean best when it comes to rounding second.

The best baserunner can be more likely to take third on a single than he is to steal second on the pitcher. Sometimes best and fastest are one in the same, and often fast is enough to make up for some base-running that isn’t exactly best. As the Best Tools 2008 survey continues, those are the categories today, and there certainly some names that belong in both.

  1. Best Baserunner
  2. Fastest Baserunner

While a stopwatch may be the quickest way to rate the second tool there — just clocking raw speed — there are some interesting statistics that help shape the argument for the first tool there. One of the set of statistics charted over at Bill James Online is “baserunning analysis”, and it counts the numbers of extra bases a player takes against how many opportunities he’s had. The stat takes on the look of a plus/minus, with pluses going for the extra bases taken (or stolen) and a minus reflecting a missed chance (or a time caught).

I took a tour of some players in the NL Central for examples and found Cincinnati’s Brandon Phillips has a +11 total, but he’s a +12 on stolen bases, meaning as a baserunner is minus-1. The Cubs’ Ryan Theriot is a +8 overall and minus-3 on the base-stealing, so he’a actually a +11 in base-running.

These stats help illustrate the difference between being a good base-runner and being a good base-stealer. Here are a selection of examples, mostly from players in the NL Central who would appear to be the best. They are listed with their total baserunning +/- and then their steal +/- in parentheses. (Subtract the latter from the former to get the base-running +/- and help shape your tool rankings.)

  • Jose Reyes, NYM +25 (+12)
  • Hanley Ramirez, FLA +14 (+7)
  • Jimmy Rollins, PHI +28 (+25)
  • Scott Rolen, for nostalgia -5 (+5)
  • Albert Pujols, STL -1 (+2)
  • Skip Schumaker, STL +9 (+5)
  • Ryan Ludwick, STL +8 (+2)
  • Ryan Theriot, CHI +8 (-3)
  • Kosuke Fukudome, CHI +17 (+0)
  • Ryan Braun, MIL +8 (+3)
  • Corey Hart, MIL +16 (+8)
  • Nate McLouth, PIT +17 (+5)
  • Brandon Phillips, CIN +11 (+12)
  • Lance Berkman, HOU +21 (+11)

At least it’s a start. If you want to check out the previous entries on the Best Tools 2008 survey — a series of blog entries done in conjunction with the Baseball America poll handed out to managers this past week — then follow these links: Best Hitter. Best Power. Best Bunter. Best K-zone Awareness. Best Hit & Run. Most Exciting Player.

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4 comments

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Fastest:
1. Jose Reyes
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Michael Bourne

Best Baserunner
1. Lance Berkman
2. Kosuke Fukudome (according to your stats)
3. Jose Reyes

This is fun. More of these!!!

— whatthetlr?
10:46 am July 23rd, 2008

Fastest:
1. Jose Reyes

2. Michael Bourn

3. Willy Taveras

Best Baserunner:

1. Kosuke Fukudome

2. Jose Reyes

3. Lance Berkman

— emc2013
2:59 pm July 23rd, 2008

I nominate Pujols for smartest runner

— Steve
3:55 pm July 23rd, 2008

Fastest:
Bourne
Reyes
Figgins

Best baserunners:
Ichiro
Jeter
Polanco

— Joepa
3:56 pm July 24th, 2008