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07.02.2008 11:57 am

The June Boon & a Lineup’s Look

St. Louis Post-Dispatch
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TOWER GROVE — The timing might have been as awkward as the inquiry, but Aaron Miles was game after last night’s loss to consider a question about the Cardinals recently called-out offense: Would it surprise him that they topped the league in scoring during June?

“Really?” Miles said. “I don’t know. I guess, I guess it does. It seems like so many of the questions the last few weeks have been about the guys left on-base. I think that means that this is an offense that keeps coming at you inning after inning after inning. We have a lot of guys who can grind out the at-bats.

“That’s how we want to be known.”

In Kansas City last weekend, manager Tony La Russa deflected the criticism of his bullpen by serving up the offense for scrutiny. He said the offense was as much a culprit for the losses in Detroit and that he didn’t understand how the lineup got a “free pass.” The Cardinals then scored 21 runs in the next three games, a burst that halted where so many offensive burts do, of course, with … Tony Armas Jr. Anyway. The argument that the offense had somehow been stumbling seemed  misplaced. The Cardinals’ 136 runs in June were the most of any team in the National League, a league humbled by interleague play for a good stretch of the month. 

The Cardinals scored that many despite one game being a 20-2 drubbing by Philadelphia and the Royals rolling into town and holding the Cardinals to four runs in three days. They scored that many despite missing the most important engine of its offense for two weeks of the month — no Albert Pujols and still they scored.

Culprit? Huh?

In fact, the Cardinals’ lineup ranked well in the NL across the numbers in June:

Runs: 136 (1st)

Hits: 260 (1st)

Doubles: 49 (5th)

Triples: 5 (4th)

Home Runs: 36 (3rd)

RBI: 124 (3rd)

Batting Average: .272 (2nd)

On-Base Percentage: .337 (4th)

Slugging Percentage: .447 (2nd)

OPS: .785 (2nd)

That doesn’t look like an offense that is getting a “free pass”. It looks like a lineup that carried a team to a 15-12 record, the second-best record in the NL during June. (Quick note: The three best records in the NL during the month belonged to NL Central teams, fronted by Milwaukee’s 17 wins and followed by the Cardinals and the Cubs, who had the same record.) And yet, La Russa’s point resonates. There is a sense that the Cardinals lineup could be more … consistent.

Halfway through the season, there is enough numbers to pick apart the lineup.

Each spot in the lineup has had a player start there at least 30 times, and clear roles can be divined by how some hitters have taken to their spots — and others — in the order. Where they team could use a beef-up is also clear.

Start with the most common starting lineup, based on games started in that spot:

  1. Skip Schumaker …  60
  2. Aaron Miles … 24
  3. Albert Pujols … 68
  4. Rick Ankiel … 34
  5. Troy Glaus … 64
  6. Yadier Molina … 34
  7. Yadier Molina … 26
  8. Kyle Lohse … 16
  9. Cesar Izturis … 49

Here is where the spots in the Cardinals order rank compared the rest of the National League in BA/OBP/SLG. Naturally the Cardinals No. 9 spot is going to be better than the rest of the league because of La Russa’s “Crazy 8″ lineup, but of note is where the Cardinals’ No. 8 spot ranks, possibly as a result of the double-leadoff format.

It’s also worth considering the (traditionally) important number for each spot in the order — leadoff stresses on-base percentage (the second number), whereas No. 5, for example, leans on slugging percentage (the third number). Rankings are in parentheses:

  1. .280 (7)/.346 (6)/.413 (8)
  2. .301 (1)/.356 (4)/.448 (2)
  3. .323 (2)/.438 (2)/.538 (3)
  4. .254 (14)/.339 (10)/.481 (7)
  5. .297 (3)/.380 (4)/.502 (5)
  6. .268 (5)/.353 (5)/.371 (15)
  7. .253 (11)/.333 (6)/.317 (16)
  8. .213 (13)/.268 (15)/.333 (8)
  9. .269 (1)/.326 (1)/.346 (2)

The speed bump for the Cardinals lineup is what it was last year — cleanup hitter. Glaus has taken to the No. 5 spot in the order, but the cleanup role has been a rotation of sluggers, from Ankiel to Ludwick to Glaus to Chris Duncan, at times. Four players have 20 or more at-bats in the spot, and this is what they’ve done there:

  • Ludwick … 120 AB … .283/.371/.592
  • Ankiel … 137 AB … .263/.346/.511
  • Glaus … 57 AB … .193/.266/.281
  • Duncan … 20 AB … .150/.261/.150

The Cardinals shopping list for July clearly starts with a lefthanded reliever, but their quest for an impact bat also continues. That could come from within as Ludwick shakes loose from his current funk and finds a rhythm between his May mash and his late June stumble; or Ankiel rides one of his streaks. This is a lineup that has taken its free passes, but not really been given a free pass because as productive as it’s been it needs more depth to keep the Cardinals in contention. 

***

For kicks — and for another Miles-related surprise (check out his numbers in 106 at-bats in the two spot) — here are the Cardinals’ leaders by spot in the order:

  1. Schumaker … .301/.365/.434
  2. Miles … .396/.423/.472
  3. Pujols … .354/.477/.621
  4. Ludwick … .283/.371/.592
  5. Glaus … .285/.383/.500
  6. Molina … .339/.404/.435
  7. Molina … .243/.288/.330
  8. Braden Looper … .367/.441/.467
  9. Ryan … .333/.378/.405

Went with the hitters who have more than just a handful of at-bats in each spot, but it’s worth point out what Adam Kennedy has done hitting ninth: .467/.500/.533. Though it was just in 15 at-bats.

***

Tuck!, a cartoonist and Cardinal fan (let him reveal in what order), has this take on the Cardinals season over at his regular haunt, The Hardball Times: The STDL.

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8 comments

Comments are closed.

i’m skeptical about fuentes. i heard george sherrill might be available from the orioles. a better pitcher and i think only in his arbitration phase. seems like every time i pay attention to fuentes he is getting shelled.

— roger from lake tahoe
2:51 pm July 2nd, 2008

DG -

If I did my math right…..the Cards hit 170 singles in the month of June? That seems like a lot…….where does that rank? Thanks for the great blog as always.

— CS
3:19 pm July 2nd, 2008

Yeah, I’m skeptical about both the Rockies rumored to be on the block. Before we try and grab some left handed releif pitching I think the Birds should wait ,and see what Mulder gives them. Now that Mulder is back in the bigs, the next step will be to wait and see what his future is. I know it is a big adjustment, but I would like to see Mulder become a full time reliever. Everything seems to point to Mulder just wanting to help the team, and be back out on the field.

I’m not quite sure on Matt Holliday. His stats make him a tough guy to evaluate. He has a 75 to 38 HR ratio when you look at the HR ratio for home/away split in his career. He is hitting .277 away from Colorado ,and .363 at his home field. Plus, do we really need another outfielder?

Great post, DG. The Cardinal offense should really be even better than they are right now. Ank and Luddy are two guys who ride hot streaks and have not shown any real consistency. Schu has done a great job in the leadoff spot.

— emc2013
4:15 pm July 2nd, 2008

This is all that you need to know about Fuentes: Lefties have 184 at-bats against him in the past three seasons. Lefties have 34 hits off him.

And, he has struck out 83 of them.

That is a commodity that attracts a lot of attention and has garnered plenty of interest from teams looking to beef up their bullpen.

Seems the math is correct, but the stat engines I’ve consulted have offered no help as far as ranking teams specifically by the number of singles produced. That will have to be taken to a higher court of numbers. If I can track it down, I will provide …

dg
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— Derrick Goold
9:40 pm July 2nd, 2008

DG -

Last week I made a backhanded remark about Zito…which I’m now retracting.

This week, something that catches my eye. Why would we ever bat Yadi anywhere but 6? I assume it’s because Tony is smarter than I am and that who ever is hitting in that spot is going to see significantly more fastballs than the person in the 7 spot in front of the pitcher.

Anyway, the stats made me dizzy…heheh…but are most appreciated. Thanks for keeping up the good work.

- EH…aka, BirdFanInBabylon

— ExistentialHumanist
4:00 pm July 3rd, 2008

Trying to get thoughts out at work…

Whomever is in that spot is going to get fastballs so you’re putting outfielders there to mash the ball.

— ExistentialHumanist
4:21 pm July 3rd, 2008

It’s nice to know with interleague play that we had great numbers. Now how about the numbers when you add in the American League. Then I’m sure we look like a cosy 5th to 7th. Am I right?

— Tyler
6:36 am July 4th, 2008

If you add in the American League teams the Cardinals’ runs scored in June rank … 10th.

— Derrick Goold
2:04 pm July 4th, 2008