Nico Vasquez has done a great job here in Johnson City, even compared to higher rated fellow Appy League shortstops Wilmer Flores and Tim Beckham. I think he could be worthy of a spot in the lower 20s on the list. Am I right in thinking the Cards have started promoting guys faster this year than years past? Seems like guys have really been rocketing through the system this year.

Ditto the Nico Vasquez comments. I think he’s Top 15 material. Archimedes (sp?) Nieto, the young pitcher for Batavia, also should be in the Top 30.

What about Steve Hill? Not sure of his scouting report or whether or not he will walk much, but it seems like a catcher who makes a lot of hard contact (+.300 BA, +.250 ISO) should make the list somewhere…

At the risk of being a wet blanket, I’m baffled by the (very) positive remarks about Boggs & Parisi; in their 8 MLB starts, they averaged 4 1/2 innings and 5 earned runs. Their awfulness burned through the bullpen and will perhaps cost the Cards a Wildcard slot (imagine if those 8 terrible starts had gone to Wainwright).

On a more positive note, several young guys not on last year’s top 30 should vault onto the list: moundsmen Nick Additon, Mark Diapoules, Shaun Garceau, Eduardo Sanchez, and especially Richard Castillo have all enjoyed success in full-season ball while being young for their leagues (unlike anything Boggs or Parisi have ever done in their entire careers, for instance). Among position players, Donovan Solano, Domnit Bolivar, and Freddy Parejo have fared well, too, when you factor in their youthfulness–unlike Tyler Greene, whose so-called breakout has in fact been a sub-mediocre performance once his advanced age and continued poor plate discipline are properly weighed into the equation.

The closer in AA has had a great year statistically. Noel Salas is 23 in AA and has 96 K/16 BB in 68 IP. I don’t know what his deal is but man those are great stats and to me he should be included in this list!

I know you all ready mentioned him, but I think Wallace warrants top 3 consideration. I wouldn’t be suprised by numbers that exceed Rasmus’ ‘06 season. He’ll probably hit for a higher average.

My pick for breakout performer goes to Anthony Ferrara. He’ll be in the lower levels but I’m seeing great numbers from the youngster.

Bob -
Here’s a line for you: 50 IP, 9 games started, 33 BB, 20 K’s. That’s a little more than 5 IP/start. The pitcher was 21. A lot of good pitchers don’t have spectacular starts in the majors in less than a full season.
The pitcher above, Tom Glavine.

The top 30 looks to me to have about a 33% turnover from last year. Daryl Jones, Brett Wallace and Nico Vasquez will be strong candidates within the top 10. Nick Additon (admittedly in a pitcher’s league) has had a good year as has 18 year old Richard Castillo. Deryk Hooker has impressed and as is also now at Quad Cities. Finally, Tyler Henley and Donovan Solano have put up solid numbers and merit strong consideration for the list. Add Freese and the top 30 is looking stronger for next year.

One thing that can not be denied, the Cards minor league system is much improved over the past. To make the top 30 you must bring a better game than in ‘07. Where does our only Olympian fit in all this? Motte and Salas make the bullpens future look very good. Except for #s 6 and 9 no one in the top 13 have disappointed. Wallace and Lynn appear to be as advertised. How will they do against tougher competition. It’s fun to be Cards fan.

rdan: Tom Glavine, as you pointed out, was indeed 21 when he struggled in the majors. Parisi and Boggs are 25 and 24, respectively. There is no valid comparison to be made there, unfortunately. Glavine was a solid MLB starter by the age of 23, and a Cy Young Award winner at 25. There is quite literally nothing in the extensive minor or major league career performances of Boggs & Parisi that implies either of them will *ever* be a solid MLB starter. In limited relief roles, either of them may have a chance to stick in the big leagues, but even that is probably a longshot.

The Cardinal system is (for the first time ever maybe) deep enough in truly promising talent that overage non-performers like Parisi, Boggs, Maiques, McCormick, Hamilton, Greene, Furnish, and Hawksworth can and should be jettisoned from top 30 consideration.

Nick Addition is well worth considering. He will not be 21 until Dec. drafted out of high school and has advanced. LHP (valuable) promoted in 07 from short season to rookie and then started at low A and has now moved to high A and pitched well inhis 1st start there. Excellent WHIP and very good strike out to walk ration abd stikes out almost a man an inning and he wins. 46th round pick but there is something here.

Don’t forget Shane Robinson. He was the 2005 NCAA player of the year and put up spectacular numbers at AA. He may turn out to be another Skip Schumacher with more speed (ability to steal 30 plus bases at the major league level).

Derrick………any thoughts on Luis Perdomo in the top 30? Seems to have amazing stuff, if he can harness it

I don’t think that anyone has mentioned Fransisco Samuel, the international find that is excelling in the closer’s role in Palm Beach, with apparently dynamite stuff.

Also, I would include Greene in the list of “non-performers.” Not this year at least. And in his small sample size of AAA at-bats, it seems to be carrying over.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=1557

Did the reds sign Yorman Rodriguez?

Bob,

Looking only at his major-league performance, I understand what you’re talking about … with Parisi. The righthander struggled in the majors. But click on his name above and check those Triple-A numbers and understand that this was his first taste of MLB and he was asked to do something he never had in the minors (relieve). All that merits consideration.

When it comes to Boggs, the answer is different. His MLB performance underscores his top-10 ranking. He wasn’t consistent — few rookies are; look around baseball — but what he did in Boston, in Cincinnati, elsewhere, cannot be dismissed.

Jones, Salas and Samuel top the list of guys elbowing their way into the Top 30. I think have about 1/3 of turnover is a good thing.

Also, we’ve discussed this many times: The Cardinals are promoting more aggressively and more quickly this season. It was something that the coaches and managers in the minors wanted to see — they brought it up in a series of meetings at spring training — and it’s something Mozeliak and Luhnow also wanted to do. As Luhnow said going into the 2008 season: The pipeline had been built, and it was time for it to start producing.

dg
-30-

Shaun Garceau, should be in that top 30…

Wow, it’s almost that time of year already. This is a list I could revise, and revise and revise between now and I make my official rankings, but here goes nothing-

1. Colby Rasmus
2. Brett Wallace
3. Chris Perez
4. Bryan Anderson
5. Jaime Garcia
6. Daryl Jones
7. Pete Kozma
8. Jess Todd
9. Clayton Mortensen
10. Jon Jay
11. Lance Lynn
12. Mitch Boggs
13. David Freese
14. Allen Craig
15. Jason Motte
16. Tyler Greene
17. Nico Vasquez
18. Fernando Salas
19. Mark Worrell
20. Francisco Samuel
21. Jarrett Hoffpauir
22. Mark Worrell
23. Nick Stavinoha
24. Shane Robinson
25. Tommy Pham
26. Shane Peterson
27. Ryde Rodriguez
28. Luis Perdomo
29. Luke Gregerson
30. Adam Reifer

Whew. That was kind of tricky.

I’ve heard nothing but good from Vasquez, he could probably rank higher, as in over Freese and Craig. Samuel is a guy with helium, I’ve heard he hits up to 98 and has a good slider, he just needs better control. Salas has lesser stuff, but better control and I thought he looked pretty good in the Futures Game.

Nieto probably is deserving of some recognition, but admittedly I don’t know what he throws and how he’s getting results.

francisco samuel should figure highly in the rankings. he is the next chris perez.

Where’s Marti, my Cuban obsession? Give the guy a shot, darnit!

It’s premature, but are we looking at a top-10 system here?

JON EDWARDS!!!! The guy is 20 and mashing in A ball with a 957 OPS. He should be in the 10-20 range in my book….

Edwards! Overlooked him. I’d put him at least at 23 and bump everyone else down.

Couple of lefties worth noting…Justin Fiske and Nicholas Additon as well as righty Pete Parise. Could break into Top 30 after next season, worth watching.

A few more names to at least think about for the back end: Deryk Hooker; Tyler Henley; Josh Dew and I’m not ready to give up on David Kopp yet.

2B/SS Solano has hit well at high A and now AA; lefty pitcher Additon continues to pitch well at high A despite topping out at 86 mph.

And I suppose Casey Mulligan should also be mentioned for the back end of the list. A recently converted catcher with SO/9inning rate greater than 9 in High A as a 20 year old is pretty encouraging.

I was going to mention Edwards also. He has a lot of promise. Jones has to be in the top 10 now. Samuel and Salas merit consideration. And I’ve been very impressed that Castillo has performed in A ball at that age. If Arnoldi Cruz is going to stick at catcher I think he might need to sneak in there too. And Steven Hill can hit the ball, though I don’t know where he’ll play defensively - I’d put him over Hamilton now though.

For draftees, Wallace is in the top 3. Vasquez has to be in the top half. And Lance Lynn has to be in the mix too.

One position that currently needs help for the 2008 Cards is 2B. There are a lot of interesting candidates for the spot. By 2010 I think that Koz will be ready. So I don’t think that either Greene or Hoffpauir have a future at 2B. But both might have a shot at earning a spot with the Cards as a second basemen. I think that what Hoffpauir did in 2007 was a fluke. Hoffpauir never reached a .270 BA mark in either Palm Beach or his 2006 year at Springfield. If Greene can stay healthy then I like his potential, but I wonder if he can hit for a high average? Obvoiusly Brendan Ryan is a candidate.

But my sleeper pick for the spot would be Shane Robinson. He was tearing up in Springfield and obviously since his promotion to Memphis he has struggled to adjust to the pitching. But with his baserunning ability and the talent he has shown at the plate I would think that he might be looked at. See what potential he has as a 2B this offseason, and maybe the Cards have something.

I still think that Boggs has a shot at being a solid 4th or 5th starter. He seemes to have solid command and fits the Papa Dunc criteria for a SP.

While Nico has done a fine job here in Johnson City (defensively, he frightens me a little bit), I can’t wait to see what Alex Castellanos and Curt Smith can do at the next level.

I think Arnoldi Cruz should be mention in the top 30. Before he injuried his wrist around a month ago, he was in the top 10 in RBI and Doubles in High A ball. His average was on the rise, he was hitting over 300 during June and July before he got hurt. All that while switching to a new position catcher. I saw a few games while I was in Palm Beach in early July and everything he hit, he hit hard to all fields. He also called a few good games behind the plate. I also think Daryl Jones should be pretty high on the list. He was good at the plate and was a really good and smart baserunner. I think he is going to be a very good left fielder. I also thought Solano was a very smooth shortstop.

Which top 30 proved more accurate this season? Yours or the community version?

Fuhrig,

If you can offer up a way to judge/rate the rankings, then I’ll run the numbers. I think the instant analysis of the community top 30 still stands — it’s loaded with prospects who you could “dream on”, ones without track records. That kind of list is always going to get a shakeup when the season starts.

dg

At first look, Tony Cruz has a strong candidacy for a spot in Top 30.

Of course, the judgment of these rankings is not whether the guy at #23 had a good season at low A or struggled with a bad hamstring. You can’t even evaluate whose list was more accurate until 2013 or even 2018, when we’ll know which guys might be established, successful major leaguers in St. Louis or were traded for something good.

But if you wanted to rate the ratings now, I suppose you could give 1 point for every level risen (2 points for a guy who jumps two levels, for example), a zero if a guy returns to the same level and -1 for being demoted. But you might need to wait until spring to know where guys will be assigned. Call that method A.

Or, you could just subjectively judge each guy’s season as +1, 0, -1 for generally a successful season, a place-holding season or a real falling off. Do you want to judge them as lists of 30 guys, or also for the order of the rankings? For the latter, you could have an inverse multiplier of 30 for the #1 guy, 29 for the #2 guy, etc. Call that method B. (Did I mention that I’m making this up as I go along?)

Method A: If Rasmus makes the big club out of spring training, he’d be 30 X 1=30 points. If not, he’ll be 30 X 0=0. Perez already made it up this summer, so he’s 29 X 1=29 points. But if Perez is terrible in the spring and doesn’t make the opening day roster, is he a 0 (29 X 0=0)?

Method B: Perez would clearly be +1 because he’s already installed as the de facto closer in St. Louis, at least in the interim, so 29 X 1=29 points. Ottavino at #6 clearly lost ground, so he would be 25 X -1 = -25. For Rasmus by the subjective method, was 2008 a season of success or place-holding?

I’ll leave it to DG to decide if any of this is worth pursuing, or if it even makes sense.

Jon Edwards. Didn’t make the 2008 preseason BA list. Candidate to break the Cards top 15 this year.

DG: What about Fernando Salas the closer at AA? He has 97ks in 70 innings with 24 saves. I realize relievers seldom get much run on these lists as compared to position players and starters– and I get that. Just wondering what you think of this guy. I haven’t had a chance to see him first hand. Also curious how the Farm will rank this year. It seems to be much improved over last year as evidenced in the standings and winnning percentages; commitment seems to be to prospects not roster fillers. Thanks. Allen

DG: Just a brief comment on Parisi and his MLB stint: Actually his most successful appearances were in relief; when he started he was awful. I believe he’s 25, and I would think it’s 2009– or never.

Thanks,

Allen