Prospect Audit: The “Top 30″ revisited
TOWER GROVE — The minor-league regular seasons are storming toward an end and that can only mean one thing — the beginning of work on the 2009 Baseball America Prospect Handbook. The assignment popped up in my inbox within the past couple weeks, and the best way to start working on next year’s guide is to take a look at last year’s.
That’s what I intend to do over the course of a couple blog entries — first we revisit the Cardinals’ Top 30, then we’ll revise it.
In flipping through a well-used copy of 2008 Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook, I was pleased to see that the Top 30 held up well after nearly a season of play. Sure, there are some regrets: Daryl Jones’ ejection from the Top 30 was premature, obviously, and David Freese was acquired too late after the deadline to be added. But there is also the fact that eight of the 30 have played in the majors this season — and the possibility exists that 10 will (see: Jason Motte). I also was thrilled to see these two savvy predictions and telling entries:
Top 2008 Rookie: Chris Perez, rhp. The heir apparent to Jason Isringhausen will have a chance to spend some time as the late-inning apprentice to the Cardinals’ closer.
Breakout Prospect: Kyle McClellan, rhp. After putting two elbow surgeries behind him and moving to the bullpen, he quietly posted a 1.81 ERA last season and could sneak into the big league bullpen this year.
Not too shabby for calls made back in November 2007.
The rules regarding eligibility for the BA Top 30 is simple, and surprisingly will allow many of the pitchers who have appeared this season to remain in next year’s list (i.e., Perez). The thresholds for position players is 130 at-bats or fewer; for pitchers it’s 50 innings or less. Keep that in mind as you peruse the top 30 for whose stock is up, whose stock is down and who should be included now.
The list as it was, the highest level each player reached and a teeny skinny:
- Colby Rasmus, OF … AAA … Slowed by sluggish start, now knee injury.
- Chris Perez, RHP … MLB … Still, surprisingly, eligible, so likely to stay put.
- Bryan Anderson, C … AAA … A .300-hitter, primo position, primo trade chip.
- Brian Barton, OF … MLB … Not going to be eligible. (130 AB)
- Jaime Garcia, LHP … MLB … Still eligible, and will get shot at rotation in ‘09.
- Adam Ottavino, RHP … AA … A 2-7, 5.34 summer. Gripped by inconsistency.
- Pete Kozma, SS … High-A … Superb defensive player, earned quick promotion.
- Clayton Mortensen, RHP … AAA … Quick-climber with devilish sinker.
- Mitchell Boggs, RHP … MLB … Made strong impression in big-league starts.
- Tyler Herron, RHP … High-A … Young righty bounced between AA and High-A.
- Jon Jay, OF … AAA … May be best average hitter around, .345 early in AAA.
- Jess Todd, RHP … AAA … The unchallenged breakout player of the summer.
- Joe Mather, OF … MLB … Not going to be eligible. (130 AB)
- Kenny Maiques, RHP … Low-A … Control issues. A demotion. Stepped back.
- Allen Craig, 3B … AA … Impressive production from player in prospect vice.
- P.J. Walters, RHP … AAA … Reigning pitcher of year handling Triple-A.
- Jose Martinez, INF … AA … Low average, but more of the same in the field.
- Brad Furnish, LHP … AA … Recently promoted, despite seesaw performance.
- Kyle McClellan, RHP … MLB … Will not be eligible. (50 ip) See above.
- Blake Hawksworth, RHP … AAA … Flashes of brilliance no longer enough.
- Jarrett Hoffpauir, 2B … AAA … On utility track; hit .301 before break.
- Mark Worrell, RHP … MLB … Quirky delivery projects for specialist role.
- Mike Parisi, RHP … MLB … Elbow injury halted statement-making season.
- Jason Motte, RHP … AAA … Refining second pitch; one is enough to rank higher.
- Mark McCormick, RHP … AA … Durability issues; falling 40 ip short of 100.
- Blake King, RHP … High-A … Proven particularly adept at K’ing righties.
- Mark Hamilton, 1B … AA … His position is hitter — alas, .241 BA, 19 XB hits.
- Luke Gregerson, RHP … AA … Intriguing reliever could get boost in winter ball.
- Tyler Greene, SS … AAA … Back on track? Greene gets healthy, gets moving.
- Luis de la Cruz, C … Low-A … Edged Daryl Jones. Won’t do that again.
There are a lot of fixes I can see immediately, not the least of which is finding a spot in the top five for newcomer Brett Wallace, the Cardinals’ first-round pick in June. Motte, no longer a novelty for switching positions, is going to soar into the top half, and so too could Greene. Ryde Rodriguez is another candidate to crack the list, and that shortstop in the GCL — read about Yunier Castillo back over here – could make for an interesting No. 30 entry.
Last winter, many of you engaged in the first Cards Talk Community Top 30 (an experiment recounted with its result here). We will do that again this winter. Think of this as the dress rehearsal. In the coming days, I’d like to revise the 2008 Top 30. That means adding in the draft picks — Lance Lynn, anyone? — but also reshuffling the prospects based on 2008 performance. Up goes Daryl Jones. Down goes … well, you get the idea. Consider who the 2009 Top Rookie will be (Perez, again?) and who could be the leading candidate for the Breakout Rookie (Todd, perchance?).
State your suggestions, your rankings and your arguments below, and that will help recast the Top 30 to reflect the season coming to a close. The floor is now open.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
Nico Vasquez has done a great job here in Johnson City, even compared to higher rated fellow Appy League shortstops Wilmer Flores and Tim Beckham. I think he could be worthy of a spot in the lower 20s on the list. Am I right in thinking the Cards have started promoting guys faster this year than years past? Seems like guys have really been rocketing through the system this year.
Ditto the Nico Vasquez comments. I think he’s Top 15 material. Archimedes (sp?) Nieto, the young pitcher for Batavia, also should be in the Top 30.
What about Steve Hill? Not sure of his scouting report or whether or not he will walk much, but it seems like a catcher who makes a lot of hard contact (+.300 BA, +.250 ISO) should make the list somewhere…
At the risk of being a wet blanket, I’m baffled by the (very) positive remarks about Boggs & Parisi; in their 8 MLB starts, they averaged 4 1/2 innings and 5 earned runs. Their awfulness burned through the bullpen and will perhaps cost the Cards a Wildcard slot (imagine if those 8 terrible starts had gone to Wainwright).
On a more positive note, several young guys not on last year’s top 30 should vault onto the list: moundsmen Nick Additon, Mark Diapoules, Shaun Garceau, Eduardo Sanchez, and especially Richard Castillo have all enjoyed success in full-season ball while being young for their leagues (unlike anything Boggs or Parisi have ever done in their entire careers, for instance). Among position players, Donovan Solano, Domnit Bolivar, and Freddy Parejo have fared well, too, when you factor in their youthfulness–unlike Tyler Greene, whose so-called breakout has in fact been a sub-mediocre performance once his advanced age and continued poor plate discipline are properly weighed into the equation.
The closer in AA has had a great year statistically. Noel Salas is 23 in AA and has 96 K/16 BB in 68 IP. I don’t know what his deal is but man those are great stats and to me he should be included in this list!
I know you all ready mentioned him, but I think Wallace warrants top 3 consideration. I wouldn’t be suprised by numbers that exceed Rasmus’ ‘06 season. He’ll probably hit for a higher average.
My pick for breakout performer goes to Anthony Ferrara. He’ll be in the lower levels but I’m seeing great numbers from the youngster.
Bob -
Here’s a line for you: 50 IP, 9 games started, 33 BB, 20 K’s. That’s a little more than 5 IP/start. The pitcher was 21. A lot of good pitchers don’t have spectacular starts in the majors in less than a full season.
The pitcher above, Tom Glavine.
The top 30 looks to me to have about a 33% turnover from last year. Daryl Jones, Brett Wallace and Nico Vasquez will be strong candidates within the top 10. Nick Additon (admittedly in a pitcher’s league) has had a good year as has 18 year old Richard Castillo. Deryk Hooker has impressed and as is also now at Quad Cities. Finally, Tyler Henley and Donovan Solano have put up solid numbers and merit strong consideration for the list. Add Freese and the top 30 is looking stronger for next year.
One thing that can not be denied, the Cards minor league system is much improved over the past. To make the top 30 you must bring a better game than in ‘07. Where does our only Olympian fit in all this? Motte and Salas make the bullpens future look very good. Except for #s 6 and 9 no one in the top 13 have disappointed. Wallace and Lynn appear to be as advertised. How will they do against tougher competition. It’s fun to be Cards fan.
rdan: Tom Glavine, as you pointed out, was indeed 21 when he struggled in the majors. Parisi and Boggs are 25 and 24, respectively. There is no valid comparison to be made there, unfortunately. Glavine was a solid MLB starter by the age of 23, and a Cy Young Award winner at 25. There is quite literally nothing in the extensive minor or major league career performances of Boggs & Parisi that implies either of them will *ever* be a solid MLB starter. In limited relief roles, either of them may have a chance to stick in the big leagues, but even that is probably a longshot.
The Cardinal system is (for the first time ever maybe) deep enough in truly promising talent that overage non-performers like Parisi, Boggs, Maiques, McCormick, Hamilton, Greene, Furnish, and Hawksworth can and should be jettisoned from top 30 consideration.