Prospect Audit: The “Top 30″ revisited
TOWER GROVE — The minor-league regular seasons are storming toward an end and that can only mean one thing — the beginning of work on the 2009 Baseball America Prospect Handbook. The assignment popped up in my inbox within the past couple weeks, and the best way to start working on next year’s guide is to take a look at last year’s.
That’s what I intend to do over the course of a couple blog entries — first we revisit the Cardinals’ Top 30, then we’ll revise it.
In flipping through a well-used copy of 2008 Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook, I was pleased to see that the Top 30 held up well after nearly a season of play. Sure, there are some regrets: Daryl Jones’ ejection from the Top 30 was premature, obviously, and David Freese was acquired too late after the deadline to be added. But there is also the fact that eight of the 30 have played in the majors this season — and the possibility exists that 10 will (see: Jason Motte). I also was thrilled to see these two savvy predictions and telling entries:
Top 2008 Rookie: Chris Perez, rhp. The heir apparent to Jason Isringhausen will have a chance to spend some time as the late-inning apprentice to the Cardinals’ closer.
Breakout Prospect: Kyle McClellan, rhp. After putting two elbow surgeries behind him and moving to the bullpen, he quietly posted a 1.81 ERA last season and could sneak into the big league bullpen this year.
Not too shabby for calls made back in November 2007.
The rules regarding eligibility for the BA Top 30 is simple, and surprisingly will allow many of the pitchers who have appeared this season to remain in next year’s list (i.e., Perez). The thresholds for position players is 130 at-bats or fewer; for pitchers it’s 50 innings or less. Keep that in mind as you peruse the top 30 for whose stock is up, whose stock is down and who should be included now.
The list as it was, the highest level each player reached and a teeny skinny:
- Colby Rasmus, OF … AAA … Slowed by sluggish start, now knee injury.
- Chris Perez, RHP … MLB … Still, surprisingly, eligible, so likely to stay put.
- Bryan Anderson, C … AAA … A .300-hitter, primo position, primo trade chip.
- Brian Barton, OF … MLB … Not going to be eligible. (130 AB)
- Jaime Garcia, LHP … MLB … Still eligible, and will get shot at rotation in ‘09.
- Adam Ottavino, RHP … AA … A 2-7, 5.34 summer. Gripped by inconsistency.
- Pete Kozma, SS … High-A … Superb defensive player, earned quick promotion.
- Clayton Mortensen, RHP … AAA … Quick-climber with devilish sinker.
- Mitchell Boggs, RHP … MLB … Made strong impression in big-league starts.
- Tyler Herron, RHP … High-A … Young righty bounced between AA and High-A.
- Jon Jay, OF … AAA … May be best average hitter around, .345 early in AAA.
- Jess Todd, RHP … AAA … The unchallenged breakout player of the summer.
- Joe Mather, OF … MLB … Not going to be eligible. (130 AB)
- Kenny Maiques, RHP … Low-A … Control issues. A demotion. Stepped back.
- Allen Craig, 3B … AA … Impressive production from player in prospect vice.
- P.J. Walters, RHP … AAA … Reigning pitcher of year handling Triple-A.
- Jose Martinez, INF … AA … Low average, but more of the same in the field.
- Brad Furnish, LHP … AA … Recently promoted, despite seesaw performance.
- Kyle McClellan, RHP … MLB … Will not be eligible. (50 ip) See above.
- Blake Hawksworth, RHP … AAA … Flashes of brilliance no longer enough.
- Jarrett Hoffpauir, 2B … AAA … On utility track; hit .301 before break.
- Mark Worrell, RHP … MLB … Quirky delivery projects for specialist role.
- Mike Parisi, RHP … MLB … Elbow injury halted statement-making season.
- Jason Motte, RHP … AAA … Refining second pitch; one is enough to rank higher.
- Mark McCormick, RHP … AA … Durability issues; falling 40 ip short of 100.
- Blake King, RHP … High-A … Proven particularly adept at K’ing righties.
- Mark Hamilton, 1B … AA … His position is hitter — alas, .241 BA, 19 XB hits.
- Luke Gregerson, RHP … AA … Intriguing reliever could get boost in winter ball.
- Tyler Greene, SS … AAA … Back on track? Greene gets healthy, gets moving.
- Luis de la Cruz, C … Low-A … Edged Daryl Jones. Won’t do that again.
There are a lot of fixes I can see immediately, not the least of which is finding a spot in the top five for newcomer Brett Wallace, the Cardinals’ first-round pick in June. Motte, no longer a novelty for switching positions, is going to soar into the top half, and so too could Greene. Ryde Rodriguez is another candidate to crack the list, and that shortstop in the GCL — read about Yunier Castillo back over here – could make for an interesting No. 30 entry.
Last winter, many of you engaged in the first Cards Talk Community Top 30 (an experiment recounted with its result here). We will do that again this winter. Think of this as the dress rehearsal. In the coming days, I’d like to revise the 2008 Top 30. That means adding in the draft picks — Lance Lynn, anyone? — but also reshuffling the prospects based on 2008 performance. Up goes Daryl Jones. Down goes … well, you get the idea. Consider who the 2009 Top Rookie will be (Perez, again?) and who could be the leading candidate for the Breakout Rookie (Todd, perchance?).
State your suggestions, your rankings and your arguments below, and that will help recast the Top 30 to reflect the season coming to a close. The floor is now open.
-30-
Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
I think Arnoldi Cruz should be mention in the top 30. Before he injuried his wrist around a month ago, he was in the top 10 in RBI and Doubles in High A ball. His average was on the rise, he was hitting over 300 during June and July before he got hurt. All that while switching to a new position catcher. I saw a few games while I was in Palm Beach in early July and everything he hit, he hit hard to all fields. He also called a few good games behind the plate. I also think Daryl Jones should be pretty high on the list. He was good at the plate and was a really good and smart baserunner. I think he is going to be a very good left fielder. I also thought Solano was a very smooth shortstop.
Which top 30 proved more accurate this season? Yours or the community version?
Fuhrig,
If you can offer up a way to judge/rate the rankings, then I’ll run the numbers. I think the instant analysis of the community top 30 still stands — it’s loaded with prospects who you could “dream on”, ones without track records. That kind of list is always going to get a shakeup when the season starts.
dg
At first look, Tony Cruz has a strong candidacy for a spot in Top 30.
Of course, the judgment of these rankings is not whether the guy at #23 had a good season at low A or struggled with a bad hamstring. You can’t even evaluate whose list was more accurate until 2013 or even 2018, when we’ll know which guys might be established, successful major leaguers in St. Louis or were traded for something good.
But if you wanted to rate the ratings now, I suppose you could give 1 point for every level risen (2 points for a guy who jumps two levels, for example), a zero if a guy returns to the same level and -1 for being demoted. But you might need to wait until spring to know where guys will be assigned. Call that method A.
Or, you could just subjectively judge each guy’s season as +1, 0, -1 for generally a successful season, a place-holding season or a real falling off. Do you want to judge them as lists of 30 guys, or also for the order of the rankings? For the latter, you could have an inverse multiplier of 30 for the #1 guy, 29 for the #2 guy, etc. Call that method B. (Did I mention that I’m making this up as I go along?)
Method A: If Rasmus makes the big club out of spring training, he’d be 30 X 1=30 points. If not, he’ll be 30 X 0=0. Perez already made it up this summer, so he’s 29 X 1=29 points. But if Perez is terrible in the spring and doesn’t make the opening day roster, is he a 0 (29 X 0=0)?
Method B: Perez would clearly be +1 because he’s already installed as the de facto closer in St. Louis, at least in the interim, so 29 X 1=29 points. Ottavino at #6 clearly lost ground, so he would be 25 X -1 = -25. For Rasmus by the subjective method, was 2008 a season of success or place-holding?
I’ll leave it to DG to decide if any of this is worth pursuing, or if it even makes sense.
Jon Edwards. Didn’t make the 2008 preseason BA list. Candidate to break the Cards top 15 this year.
DG: What about Fernando Salas the closer at AA? He has 97ks in 70 innings with 24 saves. I realize relievers seldom get much run on these lists as compared to position players and starters– and I get that. Just wondering what you think of this guy. I haven’t had a chance to see him first hand. Also curious how the Farm will rank this year. It seems to be much improved over last year as evidenced in the standings and winnning percentages; commitment seems to be to prospects not roster fillers. Thanks. Allen
DG: Just a brief comment on Parisi and his MLB stint: Actually his most successful appearances were in relief; when he started he was awful. I believe he’s 25, and I would think it’s 2009– or never.
Thanks,
Allen