The Lud: First an All-Star, now … MVP?
TOWER GROVE — Several innings before Ryan Ludwick launched his fourth home run in three games and even before he extended his hitting streak to seven games, the resemblance between him and the early-season favorite for MVP leapt off the page.
Before each game, the Cardinals’ media relations staff puts out the two teams’ starting lineups on one sheet of paper. By each position player’s name is his triple-crown stats. On Sunday night, these two sets of three numbers were strikingly similar:
.293, 27, 76
.303, 26, 77
The first set belonged to Philadelphia second baseman Chase Utley, whose dash to the league lead in homers and substantial RBI total (76) have the pundits pegging him as the third different Phillie to win the MVP in three seasons. The second belongs to All-Star Ludwick, who … well hasn’t found those three little initials attached to his name all that often — except when talking about this team’s MVP.
Ludwick was an All-Star before he was an everyday player. Now that he’s an everyday player — and thriving in the cleanup spot — is he an MVP?
The Cardinals’ breakout outfielder hit four homers in the three-game series against Philadelphia, going 7-for-11 with a 1.818 slugging percentage. He won the NL Player of the Week award Monday. Since the All-Star break, he’s hit .387 with six home runs, a .694 slugging percentage and 13 RBIs. The surge has erased the taste from a .228 average in June, and it has put him squarely among the league leaders in categories used to define Most Valuable Player.
“I had a rough June,” Ludwick said. “I felt like I made some adjustments. It’s going to be a constant grind. They’ve got guys out there scouting you day in and day out, trying to find ways to get you out. They might find a hole. You have to find a way to cover it up. It’s part of the game.”
Ludwick leads the National League in slugging entering play today (.614) and is top 10 in batting average (.306), on-base-plus-slugging (.998, OPS), home runs (27) and RBIs (78). Pull out the “Advanced Placement” stats and Ludwick is top 20 in Win Shares (15) and top 15 in Runs Created (81.5). By now, you probably know where I’m going with this.
The last several years, this blog has fiddled around various ways to define the V in MVP. One of the exercises that I think works well to focus the MVP discussion is an MVP Aggregate approach (MVPag), or The Musial Theorem, as we called it. The process is simple: Settle on the statistics that best define an MVP, mostly offensively, and then add individual player’s rank within those stats. The lower the score the better.
It reveals who has excelled in many areas — from slugging to scoring — and reveals the most well-lopsided hitter in the league.
Previous examples are available here:
Always trying to refine and improve on the framework of the MVPag, but it’s useful in this discussion, too. Does Ludwick belong in the MVP conversation?
For the sake of simplicity, I selected seven statistics: batting average (BA), slugging percentage (SLG), on-base percentage plus slugging (OPS), runs created (RC), home runs (HR), RBIs (RBI) and Win Shares (WS). Rifling through those numbers, the same 15 names started coming up consistently, with a couple others — Atlanta’s Brian McCann and Philadelphia’s Pat Burrell — mixed in. I mapped where they ranked and added up their MVPag.
A few examples (rank):
PLAYER: BA … SLG … OPS … RC … HR … RBI … WS
Ludwick: .306 (10)/.614 (1)/.998 (5)/81.5 (12)/27 (5t)/78 (6t)/15 (19t)
Utley: .292 (23)/.575 (8)/.947 (8)/91.0 (4)/28 (4)/77 (8)/18 (7)
Albert Pujols: .344 (3)/.597 (3)/1.051 (2)/93.7 (2)/21 (19t)/67 (19t)/19 (4t)
Ryan Howard: .242 (76)/.502 (22)/.832 (30)/69.9 (28)/31 (2)/96 (1)/12 (50t)
Lance Berkman: .337 (4)/.609 (2)/1.047 (3)/99.4 (1)/22 (14t)/76 (9)/24 (1)
It’s a rough, incomplete look, to be sure. But it offers a snapshot of the MVP discussion. The aggregate rank — the sum of the hitter’s rankings — separates the hitters who excel in one category (say, home runs) while rewarding the hitter that has the Musial Effect — quality performance in a variety of categories. (Note: If a hitter ranked 50 or higher in any one category, the rank was considered 50.)
And, when tallied, these numbers make a few things clear: The usual suspect is near the top of the MVPag — and should his team remain in contention probably the MVP sweepstakes, too — and Ludwick belongs. At least to the same extent that Utley does.
The MVPag for the 15 players selected:
- Lance Berkman, HOU … 36.0
- Albert Pujols, STL … 54.5
- Ryan Ludwick, STL … 62.0
- Chase Utley, PHI … 62.0
- Ryan Braun, MIL … 64.0
- Matt Holliday, COL … 69.5
- Carlos Lee, HOU … 80.0
- Chipper Jones, ATL … 95.0
- Adam Dunn, CIN … 111.0
- David Wright, NYM … 114.5
- Hanley Ramirez, FLA … 118.0
- Dan Uggla, FLA … 129.5
- Nate McLouth, PIT … 130.0
- Ryan Howard, PHI … 209.0
Offer your take, your criticism, your suggestions below in the comment sections.
***
For the Farmniks out there, P-D contributor Nate Latsch has this update on Jacob Turner, a local prep pitcher who is climbing into the national draft picture in the same way Holt’s Tim Melville and Highland’s Jake Odorizzi last year. Turner, about to be a senior at Westminster, went 5-2 with a 1.45 ERA last spring.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
The MVP debate should begin and end with Albert Pujols. He’s already been intentionally walked more than any other previous season, and that isn’t including the 4 pitches like Madson pitched around him last night, among many others. Pujols is what drives this lineup. Ludwick is having a nice season, yes. But he’s no MVP.
Also, if the Phillies get another MVP, having three different players be selected three straight seasons, none of which leading to a playoff series win. Shouldn’t that wake the voters up on what the value of a player really is? I never argued that Albert deserved it over Bonds when Bonds was getting on base two thirds of the time, and by himself creating more runs for the Giants than any other player in the league. But I wonder what Albert might be able to do if he were in a lineup surrounded by Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard.
My feeling is that he would still be walked as much, and Utley and Howard would be garnering the same attention. Isn’t it time we stopped overlooking the best player in baseball?
I like the argument, but past experience shows us that MVP voters don’t do the math (ie: Bonds over Pujols like 15 years in a row…). They like names, HR’s, and winning teams. If Ludwick gets a single vote he should be happy.
They like the MVP to come from winning teams unless Pujols is in the running. Then it goes to Barry Bonds or Ryan Howard. Pujols has been robbed too many times.
Unless a player from a midwest team really stands head over heals over the large market teams on the east and west coast, forget about it. The voting is a farce just like the set up for the All-Star voting. I have no faith in the integrity of the system. They proved that when straight Albert could’nt get past crooked Bond’s. It’s not even fun to hash around anymore. That’s just another example of how the game has changed. Perhaps a child can still be hopeful for his/her hero. In this day and age that MIGHT be something anyway.
But no, if Ludwick stays consistant in his ways, there is no way he has a chance. It’s nice that the Cardinal Sportswriters stick up for him though.
As always, GREEAT WORK DG! Maybe your great insight to the matter will open some eyes.
Thanks for your hard efforts. I always enjoy my perch in BIRD LAND.
It is always a mystery how the MVP is chosen, it is as brainless as deciding Gold Glove winners. For instance, Russell Martin won it last year with something like 15 errors, but had a great offensive season. Isn’t there an award called the Silver Slugger to celebrate hitting? There are so many factors to be considered and so many different voters placing different values on each factor it’s like predicting our weather.
Also, we can’t complain about the east coast/west coast bias. The most popular teams are marketed way more than we are and make headlines news with REAL trades. Not to mention, the lack of active enthusiasm by St. Louis fans aren’t going to garner support. Pujols was the league’s best hitter for 3 years before he got any recognition! Molina will never make the All-Star team, Ludwick got in this year because of injury. The Cardinals have a strong fan base throughout the heart of the country, but the team only markets to the surrounding Missouri and Illinois areas. The Cubs are in the Midwest and they are telecast on WGN, a nationwide station. The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are hugely popular Japan! The Dodgers and Angels are popular in Latin America! The St. Louis Cardinals are popular in St. Louis.
One more thing…Dear Pujols, Where is your power to the opposite field?
Great blog and everything but I really enjoy Around the Horns. Just curious, which of the blogs gets more hits?
(1) Stan Musial
(2) Bob Gibson
(3) Ozzie Smith
I like the Lud - so don’t take this comment wrong, I’ve been a cards fan since the 50’s; but the guy fails to deliver so many times when the game is on the line - just like last night in the 8th with the bases loaded and 1 out. He and Glaus both - and Pujols, seem to get alot of RBI’s and hits but it seems that there are just so many times that they just don’t get it done. Please feel free to comment back…
RJ,
Thanks for jogging my memory. Meant to mention that in the above entry, and in a moment I’ll go back and add the little ditty about that exact moment — or rather the several moments this weekend brought for Ludwick.
dg
Don’t get me wrong, I love Ludwick, but Utley is a 2nd baseman, and Ludwick is a corner OF. Inherently, that makes Utley’s production much more valuable, because the dropoff from him to his generic backup is so much more severe. Add in Utley’s great play at an important defensive position, and it’s pretty clear that Utley is the more valuable player.
Luddy might have decent stats without AP in the lineup, but there is no way he is getting pitches like he has in this series. His homerun last night came on a pitch that AP would never get, a FB right down the middle.
I agree that Utley’s production is way more valuable, because of his position. This guy might go down as one of the greateast power hitting second baseman of all time. He is so strong, and his swing is so compact. Utley is fun to watch.
I know that Luddy, Ank, and Glaus are all producing, but if the Cardinals are ever going to maximize AP’s full potential then they need a bat that can change a whole lineup. I realize that there are few of these guys around, but there are a few guys that have to be pitched similar to the way teams pitch to Albert. Maybe the answer is within the system? Could Joey Bombs become that guy or Raz could certainly fit the role. But if the Cardinals are going to maximize Albert’s potential then they need a guy that can change a whole lineup. Also, Albert is back to pulling everything!!! Everything is down and away, just take it the other way AP.
Another problem, of course, is that Pujols and Ludwick may split some votes, which would allow someone like Utley to win on a plurality. Kind of like 1979, when Bruce Sutter won the Cy Young Award because J.R. Richard and Joe Niekro split the starting pitcher votes, both having won 20 games (or thereabouts; I’m too lazy to look it up right now) for Houston that year.
couldnt agree more his story is truly amazing and I find myself rooting for him every day Go Luddy!
Didn’t Ludwick only hit like .190 when Pujols went on the DL for about 12-13 games? That really should just about kill his chances of winning the MVP.
Why would you essentially double-weight slugging (by including OPS) but not on-base percentage? Is that intentional?
Still waiting for his “regression to the mean” ala Jayson Stark
Yeah, MVP is a farce. Best example, in 2006 Pujols had 9 fewer homers and 12 fewer RBI’s than Ryan Howard, but had 130 LESS strikeouts AND won the gold glove. Are you telling me that 12 more RBI’s is more important than fielding and striking out 130 fewer times? Absolute joke.
not-arguing philly guy,
yep. it was intentional. ditto with double-counting RBIs. thought it was the way to go. getting on base is swell, but driving in runs and creating runs is the name of the game, right?
dg
I love the double standard in the MVP. When McGwire destroyed the home run record with 70, Sammy Sosa won the MVP because the Cubs made the playoffs and the Cardinals didn’t. In 2006, when St. Louis won the division (admittedly backing in) and the Phillies didn’t make the playoffs, Ryan Howard still won the MVP because he had a few more home runs, as already noted above, and despite Pujols’ huge edge as a defender, baserunner and contact hitter.
This season, if the playoff issue eliminates Berkman, it should again be Albert, hands down. Of course, he won’t win.
Unless a player from a midwest team really stands head over heals over the large market teams on the east and west coast,
or the north side of Chicago. Anyone remember Andre Dawson? Or how Sosa slaughtered Big Mac in the ‘98 voting?
Overnight, the New York Times home page had a link that said something like “Ludwick homers again as Cardinals take another win over Dodgers.” This in a game where Albert Pujols hit the granny. It strikes me as another sign of Ludwick’s rising star status and recognition.