Should the Cardinals make the postseason, Wainwright will be more valuable as a starter. For all of their recent good work, Looper and Wellemeyer remain question marks as postseason rotation guys. Lohse has been sputtering a bit lately, but he was the club’s “ace” in the absence of Waino and Carp and remains a better choice for a postseason start.

Of course, the team has to reach the postseason first, but I am still of the opinion that Waino’s ability to throw 7+ quality innings relieves pressure on the pen and makes those guys more effective.

I say all of this, admittedly, because I believe that Perez is good enough to close, and I believe that Carp will miss just the one start.

you forget another possible argument. Wainwright’s finger is not allowing him to throw an effective curve ball, so he’s better off being a fastball/slider reliever than a starter who needs to go through the lineup several times (and, thus, needs the complement of all his pitches - esp. uncle charlie).

Assuming he CAN throw the curve and really is healthy, it’s no contest - he’s proven himself as an ace starting pitcher - keep him that way.

A great closer is essential to a winning franchise. It isn’t like we have one this year. Adam should be our closer. Let Perez pitch the eight. Cards win!

Wainwright might not have allowed a run the 2006 post-season, but he was anything but rock solid in the closers role. Think no further than the deciding games of the 2006 NLCS and World Series. In both cases, Wainwright got the job done, allowing the Cards to win the series, but did so by the slimmest of margins.

Counter balance that with Wainwright’s dominance as a starter and I think it is pretty clear that he is far more valuable to the team as a starter than as a closer.

Closers are rare, but consistently getting your team into late innings when pitching against the other team’s ace is even more rare. I vote for keeping him a starter.

He should start, but I’m not sure he’ll be effective right away in either of the roles. Remember, his curve ball was just as important of a pitch for him as a closer as it was for him as a starter. I don’t think, ultimately, that he is an effective pitcher at all without Uncle Charley.

Great to see you at the game Derrick!

Given that Tony LaRussa invented and popularized the 1 IP closer in the Eckersley era, has he indicated that he will be more flexible in allowing his closer to come into the game into the 8th on a regular basis?

I thought his plan last night was to have McClellan finish the 8th. I was surprised he did not bring in Villone to face Jacobs in the 8th and then he ended up bringing in Perez. Perez now has 2 of his 3 saves longer than 1 IP.

I had this discussion with Cardinals analyst Sig Mejdal about using what I like to call relief aces or fireman in situations other than just starting the 9th inning.

Jim Caple also wrote an excellent feature for ESPN.com recently on the subject which received quite a bit of attention with the HOF induction of Goose Gossage who often came into games in the 8th or even the 7th along with his peers such as Sutter and Fingers.
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Simple: like in golf, start for show and close for dough.
W. starts now, but if/when it gets close to making the postseason and in the post season, he will close.

Wainright needs to start. Between Perez & McClellan the BP will at least be OK. 3 butt kicking starters are the necessity in playoffs. Wainright & Carp make up 2 of 3. McClellan reminds me of Wainright 2 years ago and Perez will get there.

Starters are more valuable than relievers, no matter their role in the ‘pen; that’s just basic baseball.

This one is easy, Wainwright is a Starter! A very good one at that. Why not say Carpenter should close, or Lohse, etc. etc. etc. This whole “Need vs. Value” is foolish. Don’t look at things with a static view. Circumstances will always change, and once you have committed Waino to the ‘Pen, you are stuck with him in a role that doesn’t use his talent to the fullest of its’ potential.

The mantra of “put your players in the best potition to win” applies here. You do that better by having a Starter who can shut the other team down for 7 innings than keeping him in the pen and hoping a lesser starter can give him a chance to close out a game.

You have to be ahead late in the game to have a Closer even matter. Use your Great Starter as a Starter and get to the late innings with a lead first. Simply put your players in their best roles and win it or lose it on the field.

STARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTERSTARTER!!

Total waste of resources to put Wainwright in the bullpen.

I would re-frame this a bit and think about it this way: are you better off substituting Wainwright for Piniero in the rotation or Wainwright for Perez in save situations (I know you would technically be moving the last right hand reliever off the roster (Thompson? Izzy???)but the real impact is the difference in high leverage save situation performance).

I think your argument is that recent improved performance by Looper, Welley and Piniero reduces the “need” for AW in that role. However, the only one that matters is the guy he would replace (5th guy assuming we stick w/ a 5 man rotation) and I hope we’ve learned by now not to rely on very small sample sizes to judge Piniero’s performance (see his albatross contract for illumination). Clearly, AW should give us a significantly better chance to win those 8 remaining starts. How many more we should expect to win is a complicated question…I’ll say 2-3 (say, 70% win rate for AW and 40% for JP).

Would he be likely to add more than 2-3 wins over CP as your closer? We have 38 games left. A dedicated, durable closer on a winning team might have, say, 16 save opps over the this span (42% of games played, which is a K-Rod’s % for a very winning team–none of this matters if the Card’s can’t put up save opportunities at a high rate). Let’s say AW is K-Rod (90% save conversion rate) and CP is just a tad better than Franklin (say 75% compared to RF’s 67%). I don’t think AW would be this good or CP this bad (my belief is that CP would be at least as good as AW), but let’s assume some extremes to make the point. This 15% difference in save conversion would result in about 1-2 more wins (2 blown saves but these don’t equal losses).

I realize a proper analysis would be much more complicated (and include factors such as impact on overall bullpen performance from lighter load from AW’s higher average innings per start) but this is a start…

When Adam comes back he should resume his #1 starter role. He is our best pitcher right now. If they do anything with him other than start then someone in the front office should lose their job. It’s a no brainer.

agreed - wainwright has proven his effectiveness in pressure packed situations. since izzy can’t go, waino is the only pitcher on staff with those kind of credentials. a HUGE part of a closer’s effectiveness is his reputation he brings to the mound. almost all mlb players remember his performance two years ago. it’s the same effect as the “big bat” behind pujlos. even though ludwick is having a better year than those big names, he doesn’t yet carry the reputation. alot of baseball is mental.

mh,

Saw the curve in Memphis and it should be fine. He was able to locate it, and it reportedly had improved bite during his second appearance. While I understand the argument that a fastball/slider/cutter combition is plenty for a reliever, you also want your closer to have his best weapon because, unlike a starter, there’s no compensation, no setting hitters up, no grinding with what you got without trouble. Wainwright’s curve is a trump card in the ninth, maybe even more so than when he’s starting.

molon,

That is a good way to frame the argument. Don’t make the case for what’s best from Wainwright; look at how much of an upgrade he is over the player in that position. In other words, his value over his replacement.

Not sure it makes the decision any more clear, but that’s an excellent way to come to a decision.

dg

He needs to be a starter, period. He was a reliever in his rookie year, 2006, becuase he was a rookie, and Izzy was awful. However, while Izzy is awful again, we didn’t have Chris Perez in 2006. I mean, tonight (August 15th), we have Brad Thompson going tonight against the reds. Can we say we Anthony Reyes anyone?

So yeah, Wainwright is a starter. And back to Izzy… he’s making $7.5 million this season; he should donate that to 100 needy families in the St. Louis area. That’s $75,000 per family. That would be 100 saves for Izzy, the easy way. When’s Izzy’s retirement party, cause I’m there!

The way to strengthen the bullpen is to make Wainwright a Starter!

Sounds backwards, but what I have not heard talked about is the fact that as a starter, he could eat up a lot more innings than as a closer. Those innings reduce the load on the bullpen, making them stronger.

I’ve read all these comments and there are some very insightful ones to be sure, the best being the value over replacement approach. AW value over the any starter he might replace is greater than the value re represents over the potential closers. If we can also go to 4 man rotation in August the bullpen might also be significantly impacted by the addition of Welly or Loop (not both).

If the Cardinals are trying to win a pennant, then Wainwright needs to be the closer to end this season since he’s actually building up innings right now anyway and not ready to pitch 7-9 innings he would be if middle of full season health. Perez can occasionally be available to close if Wainwright is needed too often. Perez can learn & prove pressure role in the 7th 8th or 9th. Since the Cardinal ownership didn’t improve 5th starter or another offensive player, I don’t think they expect to or care if the catch Milwaukee or not. So most of his is not about this year anyway

Waino should start. Carp should close.

If the Birds make Waino the closer this season, then does does he return to the rotation in 2009? It would seem to me that Waino would have to again adjust if he closes. Being a starter and a closer are two totally different roles. The Cards are not maximizing the full potential of Waino, by flip flopping him between roles.

If the Cards pen would have blown only 1/2 of the games that they have we’d be in first. I don’t want to hear that the starters aren’t going deep enough into games, they are relievers, not starters!! Getting the five plus out of them is better than the 1 they had pitched their whole career! That said, let the kid close until he proves he can’t, and if that happens let waino bail him out until next year.

i am still of the possibly unpopular opinion that the cards can’t make it to the postseason this year. even though the brewers irritate me, their schedule is just too ridiculously easy. as a result, i really would like to see this club not rush anyone back. they have a really good shot at going far next year. why gamble on a less than sure thing this year. i think they should let carp and waino take their time in coming back and let perez close for the rest of the year. he’s been alright and it’s the only way we’re really going to know for sure if he’s our closer for next year. we absolutely cannot afford to go through the bullpen nightmares next year that we went through this year. so let’s see what we have in perez and make a decision this winter.

Wainwright has GOT to start. Putting Waino in the Pen with our starters going back to averaging less than 6 innings, assuming they do, will not help this Pen in the long run. Short term it will work, because he won’t be tired, but eventually he will get tired JUST like the rest of the Pen had been.

Placing him in as a Starter gives you a guy that all but guarantees 7 solid innings per appearance. Thus asking your Pen to only take care of 6 more outs……possibly less.

Is it any wonder that our Pen got the job done effectively in this Florida series, considering as Mr. Goold wrote - “that trio pitched 21 2/3 innings this week against the Marlins and allowed two earned runs. All went at least seven innings.”

We can’t expect all of them to continue to do as such, but Wainwright we can certainly expect such a performance as being routine. In the event that Waino goes to the Pen upon his return, I personally see us collapsing and blowing it with only 2 weeks to go. Comes back as a Starter and I see us being MUCH stronger in late innings throughout the remainder of the season.

I thought Adam was coming along quite nicely until the freek finger pop. Personally I would much rather see a starting rotation of Carp???? Wainwright, Loshe, Wellenmeyer & Looper than a starting rotation of Carp????, Loshe, Looper, Wellenmeyer & Pinero. When the starting rotation is clicking the offense seems to sense some innings out of the starter and score some runs. The pen is what it is now and we know that they can get the job done, like last year and the beginning of this year, so why take a proven starter and have him do something he really doesn’t want to do. You know the little bit of closing he did in ‘06 doesn’t really prove anything. It just happened, GOOD for the CARDINALS, but that doesn’t mean that Adam will do it consistantly now. Adam Wainwright is a CARDINAL STARTER. No If’s And’s or But’s to it. By the way, some of the ‘half hearted’ Cardinal fans? that write in here should just sit back and quit complaining so damn much. This is an EXCITING Team to watch play the game of Baseball and if you can’t enjoy these guys, YOU ARE A PATHETIC fan & I use the word fan very loosely to say the least. Midassinger 66

Starter - no ifs, ands, or buts about it!

Let’s be realistic. The Cardinals are not going to make the post season, so let’s get ready for 2009. Let Wainwright start and let Perez close. (He doesn’t have to do it every single time, if that keeps Tony happy).
On another point, it makes sense not playing Ankiel in center until he can sprint, but why left instead of right where his cannon arm would be more useful?

I think Waino should be in the closer role for the end of this season. I still think the Cardinals will be in the race for at least the wild card. So I think a closer like him will be a must to compete.

Right now the team has a glaring need in the bullpen however, Perez actually has done quite well in the role as a pseudo-closer(since TLR wont annoint him closer). It is a quandry. It is disconcerting as well that Carp is having arm troubles. So we may now have as much a need in the starting rotation. The bottom line is because of the futility in the bullpen we are 7 games out. Had we won half of the 27 losses the bullpen has endured we might be in first place and for sure would be in first in the wild card. So in the short run, assuming Carp can come back in some role starting, the greater need is in the bullpen.

Since we really don’t know Wainwright’s ability to go several innings as a starter, I would rather see him in the “Closer” role. We certainly did well with him in that role in 2006. I would like to see us add a bonafide starter through the waiver wire–example–Washburn. That would certainly help the starting rotation.

One thing I absolutely don’t want is to see Izzy closing games–that’s simply a trainwreck and I can find no logic as to why we keep carrying him. He should be cut–plain and simple!! At the rate he is going, it would take him a couple of years to get save 300–why are we sacrificing the team for some unattainable goal for Izzy? Loyalty doesn’t win games. For heaven sakes MO, get some gumption about you and end this misery.

Wainwright belongs in the rotation for the same reason Pujols belongs on first base. Both have nagging injuries that could suddenly spring up at any moment, however you don’t sit pujols on the bench and wait for the highest leverage point in the game to pinch-hit with him. You give him as many at-bats as possible while preserving his RBI potential.

Wainwright displaces a starter who he will be at least twice as good as, whereas in the closer’s role he displaces a talented rookie who also has the advantage of his first trip through the league on his side. His ERA will not be half of Perez’s ERA, while it could easily be half of our fifth starter’s.

Even in the nightmare scenario; Wainwright no longer has the fortitude to throw his curveball, he’s a FB/Slider/Change pitcher. While his curveball has been nothing short of ridiculous (as high as 40% swings and misses he will certainly miss it) his slider has always been very good, and his changeup is well-hidden in his fastball movement-wise. Three decent pitches does suffice for a starter.

I don’t see how the Cards can use Wainwright as the closer when Carpenter’s status is still up in the air. He’s gone for 3 starts, maybe more. Thompson did fine tonight, but so did the bullpen, providing a combined 4 innings of scoreless relief. And surprise, surprise, nary a Franklin or an Isringhausen to be seen. Garcia to McClellan to Perez looks like our best combo right now, and maybe, and save the other guys for lower-leverage situations. But Wainwright needs to start. We need a guy who gives us a 70% chance of winning on any given day, like Carp and Wainwright do, even more than we need a closer, as long as Perez continues performing the way he has been.

Has anyone else noticed that in spring training and in April, when the starting rotation was unsettled, the competition brought out the best in Wellemeyer, Looper, Lohse, even Thompson? And when the rotation was set, all but Lohse became erratic, going from quality start to horrible outing? And has anyone else noticed that now, with Carpenter’s (questionable) return and Wainright’s imminent return, the second-tier starters are humming again? Silly as it sounds, the Cards may be better off dangling Wainright as a potential starter long as possible!

On the other hand, why is it that the bullpen has not similarly responded to the competition factor? I’m guessing it’s that when Jimenez, Perez, Boggs, etc, aren’t effective, they are sent to Memphis, only to return a week or two later, i.e., other than Perez, these are all wannabe starters that see no hope of making the team as a starter, and the bullpen vs Memphis fate provides little incentive once the thrill of making it to the bigs has worn thin. And Izzy and Franklin have nowhere else to go this year.

Perhaps the sadder thing is that the unexpected foray into the pennant (or at least wild card) race hasn’t served to motivate these guys, especially the veterans. As for Wainright, he’s not one of the unmotivated. Although his ultimate value is as a starter, having him in the bullpen, yet as a potential starter, may spur the other pitchers to perform. Otherwise, his return to the rotation should bump Looper or Wellemeyr to the bullpen, not because they’re the worst of the five current starters, but because they’re strong early, and don’t seem to have those loss-of-concentration bad innings that Lohse and Pineiro have.

Last comment: Kyle McClellan has lost control of his fastball. Each outing he puts men on base in close games. Jaime Garcia’s much more impressive, in my view.

Wainwright needs to be in the rotation. I’m fine with letting Perez have an apprenticeship as closer. The experience should do him well going into 2009. And, he’s been pretty good so far. Much better than watching the nightly hijinx from Izzy.

Why do I keep seeing where people comment on his Curveball possibly not being there, but then state that he would have to be a Fastball, SLIDER, Changeup type pitcher?

Umm, you need that same pressure on your middle finger to throw your SLIDER.

If his finger can’t hold up enough to have an effective Curve, then the same is to be said about the Slider. EVEN if his Slider is more of the type thrown much like a Cutter………It all hinges on the pressure being placed on the middle finger.

As you mentioned, what good is it for Wainwright to pitch 7 shut out innings, if the bullpen is going to blow the lead? With TLR finally appearing to give in and annoint Perez as the closer, that problem is solved. I say let him start.

Why is this still a question? Perez is doing fine as the guy who happens to come in the 9th. He’s supposedly the closer of the future anyway. We used Wainwright in the closers role in the 2006 end of season as a rookie, who had been training as a starter. Why shouldn’t we continue with Perez in the same fashion?

Carp-Waino-Lohse is a valuable three.

Besides, we’re two years on from 06. Waino earned his spot at the top of the rotation. I don’t think that if the Sox or Yankees lost their closers that they’d pull their number two and make him a closer. Its just silly.

As a note to something someone said earlier. I am a believer in the Caple article.

It’s puzzling to hear Dave Duncan dismiss the idea of Carpenter and Wainwright making up 40 percent of the stretch run rotation. The fact is that Chris Perez is 4 for 4 in save opportunities, and, has looked extremely good doing that. Wainwright gives this team the best chance to win down the stretch when he is taking the ball every fifth day, not once every two or three to pitch one inning. Carpenter’s return is a big question, so why not just plug Wainwright back in the rotation and when, or IF, Carpenter comes back, you figure out what to do with Lohse/Looper/Wellemeyer/Piniero. Moving a guy who has a potential to be an ace, if he isn’t already, back-and-forth between the bullpen and the rotation is not good strategy…

As I recall there was a similar debate at the beginning of the season. There was much talk about whether Izzies legs would hold up and if Waino should be the closer. What has changed?

1. Starter throw more innings - period. Since runs count against you no matter the inning they were scored, get him more innings.

2. Closers close out games. You generally can’t close out a game without it being pitched well up to that point.

Nice try Derrick. BTW, as I recall you stated a preference for Waino as a starter during the preseason discussion.

Joepa,

Did my best not to reveal my opinion on this topic for two reasons: 1. The idea was to lay out the cases and let comments debate the way to a conclusion (if there was one), and, 2., I’ve said my opinion on KMOX and elsewhere several times. I cannot get away from the innings factor. Simple as that. If you’ve got a quality pitcher who can handle a starter’s innings then it seems to me the more better innings the better.

That said, the calendar offers a caveat. That’s the argument that others have presented that is hard to ignore: With only six weeks remaining how many starts could Wainwright have vs. how many games (read: wins) could he close for a playoff berth-chasing team.

One comment in here has taken it a step further, re-defining a team’s need not just on the role that’s open (or shaky) but also the Value Over the Current Player in that role.

dg
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