Wainwright’s best role — Closer? or Starter?
FORT LAUDERDALE — The Cardinals’ reluctance to “anoint” Chris Perez as closer seems downright quaint compared to the seesaw Adam Wainwright is riding as he prepares this weekend for his third, and possibly last, rehab appearance.
To start, or not to start, that is the question.
Whether ’tis nobler in the ninth to close and take up an arm against a sea of troubles or … Oh, I’ll stop there before the allusion goes too far afield. But this is the quandary that will preoccupy the Cardinals in the coming days. On Saturday, Wainwright will throw 65-70 pitches for Class AA Springfield. He has already had his rehab program altered twice to react to the Cardinals’ latest plan — to prepare him for either a late-inning relief role (read: closer) or a spot in the rotation. The decision somewhat rests on Chris Carpenter’s health. The decision somewhat rests on Chris Perez’s success. The decision more than somewhat rests on Wainwright’s readiness.
The decision tests where the Cardinals fit on a pitcher’s value spectrum:
QUANTITY OF INNINGS
vs.
GRAVITY OF INNINGS
The Cardinals sent Wainwright off on his rehab assignment last weekend with the instructions that he was being “groomed” as a reliever. He was going to have short outings every few days and be ready to join the bullpen as early as this weekend.
That changed when Carpenter’s, ahem, posterior shoulder barked.
The guiding principle for the Cardinals now is need. If Wainwright is needed as a starter, then he will be ready to start. If Wainwright is needed to pin-down leads in the late innings — as was the original plan — then he’ll be ready to hold.
The case for Wainwright being a starter has several pillars, including:
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It’s his role, the one he prefers, the one he started the season doing.
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It allows him to make the largest impact on the team, when weighed in total innings.
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Perez, et. al., are doing quite fine as closer and committee, thank you.
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Having Wainwright, Carpenter, Kyle Lohse/Todd Wellemeyer/Braden Looper/Joel Pineiro as a rotation gives the Cardinals the horsepower to contend and possible stun in a playoff series.
The case for Wainwright being the late-inning reliever (read: closer) also some obvious and compelling arguments, including:
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He could be back in the majors earlier as a reliever.
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He won’t pitch as many innings, but the importance of the innings he will pitch are magnified because a good outing by him means a win; a good outing by him as a starter with a jumbled, erratic bullpen won’t always mean a win.
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Wainwright is weather-tested in the role.
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The need for a starter isn’t as glaring as the need for a reliever because of the recent run by pitchers like Looper (five cons. superb outings) and Wellemeyer (sharp vs. Cubs and Marlins). Throw in Pineiro and that trio pitched 21 2/3 innings this week against the Marlins and allowed two earned runs. All went at least seven innings.
All things being equal, it’s likely a team would side with using a pitcher who can be a frontline starter as a starter. As one baseball official said, a team would also consider the pitcher’s peak potential — great closer? good starter? good closer? great closer? The contract the Cardinals offered Wainwright answers that question.
Things are not equal, so the Cardinals are likely to side with, as mentioned above, need.
If Wainwright throws well Saturday and, say, the Cardinals move him immediately into the rotation, he would have time for about eight starts this season. If he goes five innings in his first start but counterbalances that with a couple eight-inning starts, he can probably average six, seven innings and throw 48 to 56 innings. Assuming Wainwright is healthy, it’s safe to say he will also be effective.
From the 2007 All-Star break through June 7 this season — the day his finger popped – Wainwright was in elite company.
Of the 39 pitchers in the majors to throw at least 163 innings in that span, Wainwright was one of five who had an ERA lower than 3.00. Three of the other pitchers in this group have won a Cy Young Award:
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Brandon Webb, AZ … 2.57 ERA … 196 ip
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Adam Wainwright, STL … 2.92 ERA … 191 1/3 ip
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Jake Peavy, SD … 2.93 ERA … 163 ip
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Tim Hudson, ATL … 2.97 ERA … 193 2/3
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Roy Halladay, TOR … 2.98 ERA … 211 1/3 ip
As a closer, Wainwright has as many regular-season saves as … Perez. That’s right: three. Wainwright’s resume — “track record,” as manager Tony La Russa calls it — comes from the postseason. In describing some of the reasons why the worst thing for Perez is for the team to “anoint” him closer, La Russa said it’s because he hasn’t done some of the things closer have to do. Wainwright had the preferred build up. He got placed in jams, got into jams and pitched out of jams before inheriting the ninth inning for the playoffs.
In October ‘06, Wainwright got four saves, closed out all three series clincher, and he did not allow a run in 9 2/3 innings.
The same assignment for the rest of this season would be based on the Cardinals’ wish to earmark one pitcher for the ninth inning and maximize the number of appearances (if not innings) in pivotal situations for Wainwright. The performance of the other starters also tilts the pitcher’s value spectrum toward relief. A few weeks ago the best way to use Wainwright might have yielded a different answer.
The timing would have been different. The need would have been different.
Case closed? What’s your call?
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
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Total waste of resources to put Wainwright in the bullpen.