Wainwright’s best role — Closer? or Starter?
FORT LAUDERDALE — The Cardinals’ reluctance to “anoint” Chris Perez as closer seems downright quaint compared to the seesaw Adam Wainwright is riding as he prepares this weekend for his third, and possibly last, rehab appearance.
To start, or not to start, that is the question.
Whether ’tis nobler in the ninth to close and take up an arm against a sea of troubles or … Oh, I’ll stop there before the allusion goes too far afield. But this is the quandary that will preoccupy the Cardinals in the coming days. On Saturday, Wainwright will throw 65-70 pitches for Class AA Springfield. He has already had his rehab program altered twice to react to the Cardinals’ latest plan — to prepare him for either a late-inning relief role (read: closer) or a spot in the rotation. The decision somewhat rests on Chris Carpenter’s health. The decision somewhat rests on Chris Perez’s success. The decision more than somewhat rests on Wainwright’s readiness.
The decision tests where the Cardinals fit on a pitcher’s value spectrum:
QUANTITY OF INNINGS
vs.
GRAVITY OF INNINGS
The Cardinals sent Wainwright off on his rehab assignment last weekend with the instructions that he was being “groomed” as a reliever. He was going to have short outings every few days and be ready to join the bullpen as early as this weekend.
That changed when Carpenter’s, ahem, posterior shoulder barked.
The guiding principle for the Cardinals now is need. If Wainwright is needed as a starter, then he will be ready to start. If Wainwright is needed to pin-down leads in the late innings — as was the original plan — then he’ll be ready to hold.
The case for Wainwright being a starter has several pillars, including:
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It’s his role, the one he prefers, the one he started the season doing.
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It allows him to make the largest impact on the team, when weighed in total innings.
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Perez, et. al., are doing quite fine as closer and committee, thank you.
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Having Wainwright, Carpenter, Kyle Lohse/Todd Wellemeyer/Braden Looper/Joel Pineiro as a rotation gives the Cardinals the horsepower to contend and possible stun in a playoff series.
The case for Wainwright being the late-inning reliever (read: closer) also some obvious and compelling arguments, including:
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He could be back in the majors earlier as a reliever.
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He won’t pitch as many innings, but the importance of the innings he will pitch are magnified because a good outing by him means a win; a good outing by him as a starter with a jumbled, erratic bullpen won’t always mean a win.
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Wainwright is weather-tested in the role.
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The need for a starter isn’t as glaring as the need for a reliever because of the recent run by pitchers like Looper (five cons. superb outings) and Wellemeyer (sharp vs. Cubs and Marlins). Throw in Pineiro and that trio pitched 21 2/3 innings this week against the Marlins and allowed two earned runs. All went at least seven innings.
All things being equal, it’s likely a team would side with using a pitcher who can be a frontline starter as a starter. As one baseball official said, a team would also consider the pitcher’s peak potential — great closer? good starter? good closer? great closer? The contract the Cardinals offered Wainwright answers that question.
Things are not equal, so the Cardinals are likely to side with, as mentioned above, need.
If Wainwright throws well Saturday and, say, the Cardinals move him immediately into the rotation, he would have time for about eight starts this season. If he goes five innings in his first start but counterbalances that with a couple eight-inning starts, he can probably average six, seven innings and throw 48 to 56 innings. Assuming Wainwright is healthy, it’s safe to say he will also be effective.
From the 2007 All-Star break through June 7 this season — the day his finger popped – Wainwright was in elite company.
Of the 39 pitchers in the majors to throw at least 163 innings in that span, Wainwright was one of five who had an ERA lower than 3.00. Three of the other pitchers in this group have won a Cy Young Award:
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Brandon Webb, AZ … 2.57 ERA … 196 ip
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Adam Wainwright, STL … 2.92 ERA … 191 1/3 ip
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Jake Peavy, SD … 2.93 ERA … 163 ip
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Tim Hudson, ATL … 2.97 ERA … 193 2/3
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Roy Halladay, TOR … 2.98 ERA … 211 1/3 ip
As a closer, Wainwright has as many regular-season saves as … Perez. That’s right: three. Wainwright’s resume — “track record,” as manager Tony La Russa calls it — comes from the postseason. In describing some of the reasons why the worst thing for Perez is for the team to “anoint” him closer, La Russa said it’s because he hasn’t done some of the things closer have to do. Wainwright had the preferred build up. He got placed in jams, got into jams and pitched out of jams before inheriting the ninth inning for the playoffs.
In October ‘06, Wainwright got four saves, closed out all three series clincher, and he did not allow a run in 9 2/3 innings.
The same assignment for the rest of this season would be based on the Cardinals’ wish to earmark one pitcher for the ninth inning and maximize the number of appearances (if not innings) in pivotal situations for Wainwright. The performance of the other starters also tilts the pitcher’s value spectrum toward relief. A few weeks ago the best way to use Wainwright might have yielded a different answer.
The timing would have been different. The need would have been different.
Case closed? What’s your call?
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between.
If the Birds make Waino the closer this season, then does does he return to the rotation in 2009? It would seem to me that Waino would have to again adjust if he closes. Being a starter and a closer are two totally different roles. The Cards are not maximizing the full potential of Waino, by flip flopping him between roles.
If the Cards pen would have blown only 1/2 of the games that they have we’d be in first. I don’t want to hear that the starters aren’t going deep enough into games, they are relievers, not starters!! Getting the five plus out of them is better than the 1 they had pitched their whole career! That said, let the kid close until he proves he can’t, and if that happens let waino bail him out until next year.
i am still of the possibly unpopular opinion that the cards can’t make it to the postseason this year. even though the brewers irritate me, their schedule is just too ridiculously easy. as a result, i really would like to see this club not rush anyone back. they have a really good shot at going far next year. why gamble on a less than sure thing this year. i think they should let carp and waino take their time in coming back and let perez close for the rest of the year. he’s been alright and it’s the only way we’re really going to know for sure if he’s our closer for next year. we absolutely cannot afford to go through the bullpen nightmares next year that we went through this year. so let’s see what we have in perez and make a decision this winter.
Wainwright has GOT to start. Putting Waino in the Pen with our starters going back to averaging less than 6 innings, assuming they do, will not help this Pen in the long run. Short term it will work, because he won’t be tired, but eventually he will get tired JUST like the rest of the Pen had been.
Placing him in as a Starter gives you a guy that all but guarantees 7 solid innings per appearance. Thus asking your Pen to only take care of 6 more outs……possibly less.
Is it any wonder that our Pen got the job done effectively in this Florida series, considering as Mr. Goold wrote - “that trio pitched 21 2/3 innings this week against the Marlins and allowed two earned runs. All went at least seven innings.”
We can’t expect all of them to continue to do as such, but Wainwright we can certainly expect such a performance as being routine. In the event that Waino goes to the Pen upon his return, I personally see us collapsing and blowing it with only 2 weeks to go. Comes back as a Starter and I see us being MUCH stronger in late innings throughout the remainder of the season.
I thought Adam was coming along quite nicely until the freek finger pop. Personally I would much rather see a starting rotation of Carp???? Wainwright, Loshe, Wellenmeyer & Looper than a starting rotation of Carp????, Loshe, Looper, Wellenmeyer & Pinero. When the starting rotation is clicking the offense seems to sense some innings out of the starter and score some runs. The pen is what it is now and we know that they can get the job done, like last year and the beginning of this year, so why take a proven starter and have him do something he really doesn’t want to do. You know the little bit of closing he did in ‘06 doesn’t really prove anything. It just happened, GOOD for the CARDINALS, but that doesn’t mean that Adam will do it consistantly now. Adam Wainwright is a CARDINAL STARTER. No If’s And’s or But’s to it. By the way, some of the ‘half hearted’ Cardinal fans? that write in here should just sit back and quit complaining so damn much. This is an EXCITING Team to watch play the game of Baseball and if you can’t enjoy these guys, YOU ARE A PATHETIC fan & I use the word fan very loosely to say the least. Midassinger 66
Starter - no ifs, ands, or buts about it!
Let’s be realistic. The Cardinals are not going to make the post season, so let’s get ready for 2009. Let Wainwright start and let Perez close. (He doesn’t have to do it every single time, if that keeps Tony happy).
On another point, it makes sense not playing Ankiel in center until he can sprint, but why left instead of right where his cannon arm would be more useful?
I think Waino should be in the closer role for the end of this season. I still think the Cardinals will be in the race for at least the wild card. So I think a closer like him will be a must to compete.
Right now the team has a glaring need in the bullpen however, Perez actually has done quite well in the role as a pseudo-closer(since TLR wont annoint him closer). It is a quandry. It is disconcerting as well that Carp is having arm troubles. So we may now have as much a need in the starting rotation. The bottom line is because of the futility in the bullpen we are 7 games out. Had we won half of the 27 losses the bullpen has endured we might be in first place and for sure would be in first in the wild card. So in the short run, assuming Carp can come back in some role starting, the greater need is in the bullpen.
Since we really don’t know Wainwright’s ability to go several innings as a starter, I would rather see him in the “Closer” role. We certainly did well with him in that role in 2006. I would like to see us add a bonafide starter through the waiver wire–example–Washburn. That would certainly help the starting rotation.
One thing I absolutely don’t want is to see Izzy closing games–that’s simply a trainwreck and I can find no logic as to why we keep carrying him. He should be cut–plain and simple!! At the rate he is going, it would take him a couple of years to get save 300–why are we sacrificing the team for some unattainable goal for Izzy? Loyalty doesn’t win games. For heaven sakes MO, get some gumption about you and end this misery.