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09.10.2008 1:16 am

Prospect Audit: The Bird Land 7

St. Louis Post-Dispatch
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DOWNTOWN — In the past couple Farmnik entries, we’ve set the stage for the prospect ranking season and the revising of the Baseball America Top 30 (on bookshelves next February, of course). First, we revisited this year’s Top 30 and then a poll of the readers for the top 2009 rookie, breakout candidate and sleeper.

Now, the Bird Land 7.

There are top 10 lists galore, books about the top 30, and a top 50 or two to chew through. Seven seemed like a good number. Maybe it’s being raised on Mickey Mantle stories and one, threadbare video cassette copy of a WGN broadcast of “The Magnificent Seven”, but seven always seemed like a good number. So seven it is.

Different from the BA Top 10 that will come out this winter and the Top 30 that will follow, eligibility for the BL7 is simple: No major-league service time. Pure prospect.

Where as Chris Perez is still likely to fall shy of the 50-inning threshold and will be probably No. 2 on the BA list again next season, he’s not a candidate for the BL7. Neither is Jaime Garcia, who has the secondary issue of the Tommy John surgery he had Monday that will keep him out of the mix for 2009. Outfielder Joe Mather will be eligible for BA, by injury alone, but not BL7. Ditto Mitchell Boggs. And so on, and so on.

So, on with it:

  1. COLBY RASMUS, OF — Slow start and knee injury didn’t derail him from being among the best prospects in baseball. Has fans in every corner. Gifted in the field, power at the plate. Nuff said. (MiLB.com; First Inning)
  2. BRETT WALLACE, 3B — Looks like Troy Glaus could miss some time here with a strained shoulder, and there’s playing time for the man at the Hit Corner. I jest. But Wallace hasn’t stopped  hitting since winning the Pac-10 triple crown for the second consecutive year. Reached Class AA and kept slugging. Have bat, will advance. Position may be TBD, but he’s handled third well enough. (MiLB.com; First Inning)
  3. JESS TODD, RHP — The breakout player of the year and the obvious candidate for pitcher of the year. Todd rode his sinker to an All-Star selection at two levels, even though he spent just a month in each before the All-Star picks. Todd, drafted in 2007, had 81 strikeouts in 103 innings at Class AA and 101 Ks in his last 125 2/3 innings of the season. Ground balls. A swing-and-miss pitch and a season that zoomed from High-A to Triple-A. (MiLB.com; First Inning)
  4. CLAYTON MORTENSEN, RHP — The prospect sensation of spring skipped immediately to the head of the class, spending most of the season in the Triple-A rotation. May have the best pitch of the high-end pitching prospects. Wasn’t overwhelming in Memphis — not like, say, Todd in Springfield — but he was pushed and showed he’s edging toward the majors. (MiLB.com, First Inning)
  5. BRYAN ANDERSON, C — The sweet-swinging, lefthanded catcher who is going to get serious run this offseason as a trade chip. Not yet 22, Anderson hit .281 at Triple-A. While the extra-base pop hasn’t developed as imagined back when he was cranking out the hits in Quad Cities, Anderson still has a pro’s approach at the plate and plays a premium position. Continues to improve at catcher and still hass the look of a lefthanded complement (read: backup) to Yadier Molina. (MiLB.com; First Inning)
  6. DAVID FREESE, 3B — Recently spoke to a minor-league coach who knows the Cardinals system well about the traffic jam at third base, and he said, “Freese will play in this league.” Ahead of Wallace? “Oh, Freese will play.” Want the Cardinals to reach beyond Felipe Lopez to fill-in for Glaus? Try Freese. The Lafayatte High grad, acquired in the Jim Edmonds deal, cranked 26 homers, drove in 91 runs and had a .911 OPS. And, he plays his position. (MiLB.com; First Inning)
  7. DARYL JONES, OF — The welcome-back prospect of the year. After idling at Low-A the tools-dripping outfielder finally got the baseball savvy to go with the raw athleticism. Jones started to get a feel for hitting — aggressive early in the count, not waiting himself into a bind and then swinging eagerly when he was already behind. Jones was a top-10 prospect until 2007, when a .217 average in Low-A dropped him. In 2008, the Cardinals decided to push the 21-year-old beyond his performance … and he took off. He finished the year in Class AA, slugging .500 there after batting .326 in Palm Beach. He is, as one scout said, a “tool box.” Someone picked the lock. (MiLB.com; First Inning)

There are a handful of other names that merited consideration for the BL7. In the end, it came down to a blend of upside (or ceiling), proximity to the majors, premium position and, sure, intriguing talent. One prospect just missed the cut on a few of those categories. Consider him the Eight is Enough prospect: RHP Francisco Samuel. The closer at High-A Palm Beach fits the intrigue category and his numbers throw off some of the same sparks Kyle McClellan’s did a year ago, though granted at a higher level. Samuel throws with considerable mid-90s mph velocity and he has a slider that bites in the high 80s mph. He had 85 strikeouts in 56 1/3 innings at Palm Beach and 29 saves. In that ninth-inning role, he’s being groomed as a reliever and that means he’s primed to move.

***

Samuel did not rate mention on any of the other top sevens that I commissioned, but some surprises did. During this season, a band of Cardinals fan blogs has developed, calling itself the United Cardinal Bloggers. They have done several round tables this season. I sent them the idea of picking the top seven prospects in the Cardinals organization. Gave them no parameters. For example, some included Motte, some didn’t. All came up with some compelling lists.

Daniel Shoptaw, author of C70 at the Bat, compiled a handy-dandy chart of the top sevens from around the UCB. It is available at the end of this entry, “Spoilage is Not Always Bad.” Shoptaw announces and organizes the project at his blog, as well as offering up his top seven and linking to the others. The contributions:

C70 — Rasmus, Wallace, Garcia, Todd, Freese, Jones, Anderson

CardinalsGM — Anderson, Rasmus, Perez, Motte, Wallace, Pete Kozma, Garcia

Future Redbirds – Rasmus, Wallace, Perez, Jones, Anderson, Motte, Niko Vasquez

Mike on the Cardinals — Rasmus, Perez, Wallace, Anderson, Motte, Garcia, Jones

Pitchers Hit Eighth – Rasmus, Wallace, Anderson, Perez, Jones, Garcia, Jon Jay

The Redbird Blog — Rasmus, Wallace, Todd, Motte, Anderson, Jones, Lance Lynn

Redbird Ramblings — Rasmus, Wallace, Todd, Jones, Motte, Anderson Garcia

Rockin’ the Red — Rasmus, Wallace, Todd, Anderson, Jones, Garcia, Vasquez

Viva el Birdos — Wallace, Jones, Rasmus, Mitchell Boggs, Todd, Anderson, Motte. (Viva elected to rank the prospects in sets, grouping them in a top three, bottom four fashion.)

***

Here’s a little major-league lagniappe for those who made it down this far: After tonight’s game, a rousing 4-3 victory for the Cardinals against the Cubs, Brian Barden did not mince words with his thoughts on Carlos Marmol’s first pitch to him in the ninth. “I was either going to wear it right here,” he said pointing to his chest, “or I was going to get my bat on it.”

Barden, who got the key bunt down even as his finger swelled, believes Marmol threw that first pitch at him purposefully. His finger was bandaged heavily and iced as the bronze medal-winning infielder said this. (X-rays revealed no break.)

“He threw at me,” Barden said. “It’s pretty clear that’s a bunting situation, and they threw straight me. The guys were saying they do that. I don’t think we’re going to let that pass. It’s the rivalry, I guess. All of these games are big for us.”

To be continued Wednesday.

-30-

15 comments

Comments are closed.

I hope the Cardinals hang onto Brian Anderson. Having a LH catcher to backup Yadier gives LaRussa platoon flexibility and insurance at an injury prone position.

I saw Francisco Samuel pitch at Palm Beach A and right now he’s just too wild (48 walks in 56 IP).

— Mike Cieslinski
6:54 am September 10th, 2008

Thanks for giving the UCB some exposure, we appreciate it.

— Deaner
7:47 am September 10th, 2008

It still fascinates me that San Diego had Freese buried at A ball - even taking into account Edmonds’ revival with the Small Bears, I still think that was a heck of a deal.

Great fun…thanks DG.

— Pitchers Hit Eighth
8:05 am September 10th, 2008

I am curious as to where you think Kozma fits. Maybe I’m mistaken, but I find it troubling that a first round pick can elicit so many “meh”s from prospect watchers.

— erik
9:10 am September 10th, 2008

Erik, I’d like to think it’s a good commentary on the state of the Cardinal organization. Kozma is still pretty good, but others are just flashing more right now to pass him on lists like this. He’s probably top 10, just not top 7. Dunno…

— Pitchers Hit Eighth
9:20 am September 10th, 2008

Shane Robinson is being sent to Winter Ball. He tore it up in AA Springfield and ended up at Memphis. He has all the tools to be another Skip Schumaker with a lot more stolen bases. It will be interesting to see who becomes more productive at the major league level, Robinson or Daryl Jones.

— Vince
9:26 am September 10th, 2008

I noticed that PHE, C70, and Rockin’ the Red did not include Jason Motte. I considered Motte an automatic. What was the reasoning behind leaving the hard throwing righty out?

I would think that as it was mentioned Anderson would be pretty heavily shopped around this offseason. But another name that I think might be on the block would be Fransisco Samuel. The Cards have CPR, Motte, and K-mac appearing to be a key part of their pen for the future. Samuel has a huge upside.

I say start shopping Anderson now! True, Anderson would be a nice catcher that would add some flexibility as a LH hitter, but what if you do bring him up and he struggles? Trade him while he is still considered a top five prospect.

The Cards ,in my opinion, have one of the top five farm sytems in the league. If Mo and the rest of the front office can play this right the Cards are going to have a deep, cheap, and talented team.

— emc2013
1:48 pm September 10th, 2008

I live in Memphis and saw a lot of players going north on I-55 this year & heard a lot of people wonder why Rasmus wasn’t one of them. At the start of the year, there wasn’t a lot of hustle - seemed like he thought he was going to breeze through another level. After a few weeks, with other guys being called up, you could really see him start to work harder and notice his reaction time and bat speed at the plate. One more spring training with a little more maturity and focus and he is going to be something.

I hope the Cardinals can find a way to get Freese up while Glaus is healing - you might see some more balls landing in Big Mac land.

— ccbarnes
3:35 pm September 10th, 2008

Motte easily could have made the list. I’d like to see more of a secondary pitch out of him, but there’s obviously nothing wrong with his fastball.

Save Garcia, I didn’t include anyone that made the majors. I’m not sure who I’d take out of my list except Garcia, and only because of the surgery.

— Cardinal70
5:34 pm September 10th, 2008

what’s the deal with john wasdin?

— roger from lake tahoe
6:05 pm September 10th, 2008

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