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09.10.2008 1:16 am

Prospect Audit: The Bird Land 7

St. Louis Post-Dispatch
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DOWNTOWN — In the past couple Farmnik entries, we’ve set the stage for the prospect ranking season and the revising of the Baseball America Top 30 (on bookshelves next February, of course). First, we revisited this year’s Top 30 and then a poll of the readers for the top 2009 rookie, breakout candidate and sleeper.

Now, the Bird Land 7.

There are top 10 lists galore, books about the top 30, and a top 50 or two to chew through. Seven seemed like a good number. Maybe it’s being raised on Mickey Mantle stories and one, threadbare video cassette copy of a WGN broadcast of “The Magnificent Seven”, but seven always seemed like a good number. So seven it is.

Different from the BA Top 10 that will come out this winter and the Top 30 that will follow, eligibility for the BL7 is simple: No major-league service time. Pure prospect.

Where as Chris Perez is still likely to fall shy of the 50-inning threshold and will be probably No. 2 on the BA list again next season, he’s not a candidate for the BL7. Neither is Jaime Garcia, who has the secondary issue of the Tommy John surgery he had Monday that will keep him out of the mix for 2009. Outfielder Joe Mather will be eligible for BA, by injury alone, but not BL7. Ditto Mitchell Boggs. And so on, and so on.

So, on with it:

  1. COLBY RASMUS, OF — Slow start and knee injury didn’t derail him from being among the best prospects in baseball. Has fans in every corner. Gifted in the field, power at the plate. Nuff said. (MiLB.com; First Inning)
  2. BRETT WALLACE, 3B — Looks like Troy Glaus could miss some time here with a strained shoulder, and there’s playing time for the man at the Hit Corner. I jest. But Wallace hasn’t stopped  hitting since winning the Pac-10 triple crown for the second consecutive year. Reached Class AA and kept slugging. Have bat, will advance. Position may be TBD, but he’s handled third well enough. (MiLB.com; First Inning)
  3. JESS TODD, RHP — The breakout player of the year and the obvious candidate for pitcher of the year. Todd rode his sinker to an All-Star selection at two levels, even though he spent just a month in each before the All-Star picks. Todd, drafted in 2007, had 81 strikeouts in 103 innings at Class AA and 101 Ks in his last 125 2/3 innings of the season. Ground balls. A swing-and-miss pitch and a season that zoomed from High-A to Triple-A. (MiLB.com; First Inning)
  4. CLAYTON MORTENSEN, RHP — The prospect sensation of spring skipped immediately to the head of the class, spending most of the season in the Triple-A rotation. May have the best pitch of the high-end pitching prospects. Wasn’t overwhelming in Memphis — not like, say, Todd in Springfield — but he was pushed and showed he’s edging toward the majors. (MiLB.com, First Inning)
  5. BRYAN ANDERSON, C — The sweet-swinging, lefthanded catcher who is going to get serious run this offseason as a trade chip. Not yet 22, Anderson hit .281 at Triple-A. While the extra-base pop hasn’t developed as imagined back when he was cranking out the hits in Quad Cities, Anderson still has a pro’s approach at the plate and plays a premium position. Continues to improve at catcher and still hass the look of a lefthanded complement (read: backup) to Yadier Molina. (MiLB.com; First Inning)
  6. DAVID FREESE, 3B — Recently spoke to a minor-league coach who knows the Cardinals system well about the traffic jam at third base, and he said, “Freese will play in this league.” Ahead of Wallace? “Oh, Freese will play.” Want the Cardinals to reach beyond Felipe Lopez to fill-in for Glaus? Try Freese. The Lafayatte High grad, acquired in the Jim Edmonds deal, cranked 26 homers, drove in 91 runs and had a .911 OPS. And, he plays his position. (MiLB.com; First Inning)
  7. DARYL JONES, OF — The welcome-back prospect of the year. After idling at Low-A the tools-dripping outfielder finally got the baseball savvy to go with the raw athleticism. Jones started to get a feel for hitting — aggressive early in the count, not waiting himself into a bind and then swinging eagerly when he was already behind. Jones was a top-10 prospect until 2007, when a .217 average in Low-A dropped him. In 2008, the Cardinals decided to push the 21-year-old beyond his performance … and he took off. He finished the year in Class AA, slugging .500 there after batting .326 in Palm Beach. He is, as one scout said, a “tool box.” Someone picked the lock. (MiLB.com; First Inning)

There are a handful of other names that merited consideration for the BL7. In the end, it came down to a blend of upside (or ceiling), proximity to the majors, premium position and, sure, intriguing talent. One prospect just missed the cut on a few of those categories. Consider him the Eight is Enough prospect: RHP Francisco Samuel. The closer at High-A Palm Beach fits the intrigue category and his numbers throw off some of the same sparks Kyle McClellan’s did a year ago, though granted at a higher level. Samuel throws with considerable mid-90s mph velocity and he has a slider that bites in the high 80s mph. He had 85 strikeouts in 56 1/3 innings at Palm Beach and 29 saves. In that ninth-inning role, he’s being groomed as a reliever and that means he’s primed to move.

***

Samuel did not rate mention on any of the other top sevens that I commissioned, but some surprises did. During this season, a band of Cardinals fan blogs has developed, calling itself the United Cardinal Bloggers. They have done several round tables this season. I sent them the idea of picking the top seven prospects in the Cardinals organization. Gave them no parameters. For example, some included Motte, some didn’t. All came up with some compelling lists.

Daniel Shoptaw, author of C70 at the Bat, compiled a handy-dandy chart of the top sevens from around the UCB. It is available at the end of this entry, “Spoilage is Not Always Bad.” Shoptaw announces and organizes the project at his blog, as well as offering up his top seven and linking to the others. The contributions:

C70 — Rasmus, Wallace, Garcia, Todd, Freese, Jones, Anderson

CardinalsGM — Anderson, Rasmus, Perez, Motte, Wallace, Pete Kozma, Garcia

Future Redbirds – Rasmus, Wallace, Perez, Jones, Anderson, Motte, Niko Vasquez

Mike on the Cardinals — Rasmus, Perez, Wallace, Anderson, Motte, Garcia, Jones

Pitchers Hit Eighth – Rasmus, Wallace, Anderson, Perez, Jones, Garcia, Jon Jay

The Redbird Blog — Rasmus, Wallace, Todd, Motte, Anderson, Jones, Lance Lynn

Redbird Ramblings — Rasmus, Wallace, Todd, Jones, Motte, Anderson Garcia

Rockin’ the Red — Rasmus, Wallace, Todd, Anderson, Jones, Garcia, Vasquez

Viva el Birdos — Wallace, Jones, Rasmus, Mitchell Boggs, Todd, Anderson, Motte. (Viva elected to rank the prospects in sets, grouping them in a top three, bottom four fashion.)

***

Here’s a little major-league lagniappe for those who made it down this far: After tonight’s game, a rousing 4-3 victory for the Cardinals against the Cubs, Brian Barden did not mince words with his thoughts on Carlos Marmol’s first pitch to him in the ninth. “I was either going to wear it right here,” he said pointing to his chest, “or I was going to get my bat on it.”

Barden, who got the key bunt down even as his finger swelled, believes Marmol threw that first pitch at him purposefully. His finger was bandaged heavily and iced as the bronze medal-winning infielder said this. (X-rays revealed no break.)

“He threw at me,” Barden said. “It’s pretty clear that’s a bunting situation, and they threw straight me. The guys were saying they do that. I don’t think we’re going to let that pass. It’s the rivalry, I guess. All of these games are big for us.”

To be continued Wednesday.

-30-

15 comments

Comments are closed.

It appears for the first time in many years we have a very very solid farm up and down the minors. With that said I am a little disappointed to not see more Cardinal players on many analysts and so called experts Top 100 prospect lists. I see many sites that have their early 2009 Top 100 list already and it appears we have Rasmus, Wallace and Anderson or Perez. Out of all of our prospects (not saying all of them are top tier prospects) there are only 3 in most peoples lists? It almost appears that most analysts are ignoring our talent compared to other teams. Any others have thoughts on this subject?

— jcanaday21
8:28 pm September 10th, 2008

The Magnificent Seven is a grand movie but pales in comparison to the original, Seven Samurai.

I like your top 7. Of them, I think Todd, Wallace and Jones will wind up as the top performers. I’m not hating on Rasmus, but I don’t think he’ll be as good as advertised.

— ExistentialHumanist
2:27 pm September 11th, 2008

…check that. Rasmus should be on my list.

— ExistentialHumanist
2:31 pm September 11th, 2008

I am not exactly sold on Todd yet. I want to see if he is just another guy with above average secondary stuff that can get you through lower tier minor league players with off speed stuff. I am waiting to see how he handles Spring Training.

I want to give a shout out to Allen Craig for having a monster season down at Springfield. Just think a guy up for Minor League Player of the Year award is our 3rd best third basemen in the system. That is a log jam that is nice to have but needs to be settled in the off season.

We have log jams at both the outfield position and the third basemen position that needs to be settled in the off season. Who is most likely to go Freese or Craig? It is even worst in the OF with the talent also at the major league level. One of things that needs to be found out if Rasmus can get back on track.

I have heard nothing about him going to Winter Ball for him yet. Which just blows my mind cause they need to make some trades this off season to sort out some of this depth that is all starting to stick at Memphis.

— FlimtotheFlam
2:53 pm September 11th, 2008

emc - I think Motte needs more work on a secondary pitch, before he can truly be considered elite. Remember that this is a guy who didn’t start pitching until 2006, and has gotten through the minor leagues basically on his gas alone.

I think he can be an excellent option out of the bullpen for the Cardinals eventually, but his ‘reverse-Ankiel’ is not yet complete.

— Pitchers Hit Eighth
8:15 am September 17th, 2008

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