Prospect Audit: The “Top 30″ Revised (P.1)
TOWER GROVE — The news Tuesday that Joe Mather would miss the rest of the season with a hand injury nearly put an unexpected wrinkle on the annual prospect rankings. The word Jaime Garcia is exploring surgical options to correct a sore elbow definitely will impact the Top 30.
As mentioned in a previous blog entry, it’s that time of year that the wheels begin turning on the annual Baseball America Prospect Handbook and the top 30 prospects that are the muscle of the Cardinals’ entry. Most minor-league regular seasons ended this past weekend — the Cardinals’ High-A affiliate in the Florida State League will attempt to open its postseason play tonight against the Cubs’ High-A team — and a lot of the information used to construct the top 30 is now at our fingertips.
We revisited the 2008 top 30 a few weeks ago. It’s time to revise it for 2009.
While the reporting and research is just getting started for the BA Top 30 that will debut this offseason, there’s no need to wait on the discussion of who should be ranked and who was just rank. As rosters expand to 40 and prospects prepare for the Arizona Fall League, this is your time to chime in.
We’ll start with three categories, first:
- Top 2009 Rookie
- Breakout Prospect
- Sleeper
This was an addition to last year’s Handbook, and the Cardinals’ picks, for the most part, were spot-on. The rookie pick was Chris Perez, the breakout was Kyle McClellan and the sleeper was D’Marcus Ingram.
The category titles are rather self-explanatory.
The “top rookie” should be a prospect who will have the biggest impact at the major-league level. Probably should be a top-10 prospect, or there has to be a reason why he isn’t. Some candidates: Mitchell Boggs, Jaime Garcia, David Freese or, the favorite, Jason Motte.
The “breakout prospect” doesn’t have to be in the majors, on the cusp of the majors or even in the upper levels of the minors. Should be in the top 30 somewhere, right? Some candidates: Jon Edwards, Lance Lynn, Adam Ottavino, Niko Vasquez, Tommy Pham or, my feel as I write this, Daniel Descalso.
The “sleeper” is a wide open. You can think of it as Prospect No. 31 or the injured prospect coming back who could be in the top 15 in 2010. That kind of thing. It’s the chance to pull out the crystal ball, place your bets, call your shot. A savvy pick this time a year ago would have been Fernando Salas. Some candidates: Ryde Rodriguez, safe pick Curt Smith, the previously mentioned shortstop Yunier Castillo, and this guy: Frederick Parejo.
Where the injury news of Arizona comes in is the minimum requirements. To be ranked in the BA Top 30 a player only has to still be eligible for the rookie of the year award and under contract in said organization. The quick-and-simple litmus test for eligibility is less than 130 at-bats or less than 50 innings pitched. Garcia is going to stay eligible. Mather, who appeared to be well on way to pulverizing his eligibility, will now just miss being a top-30 candidate. He has 133 at-bats.
That leaves Perez as the unknown, right now. He has 34 innings pitched. If he throws 16 in the next 20-plus games, he’ll snap his eligibility. More likely, he’s still a top-30 factor. Right there, dueling with newcomer Brett Wallace for the No. 2 spot.
But that’s the subject of the next Prospect Audit entry. That’s when we’ll take a look at the first BL7.
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Good sources for statistics on Cardinals prospects include: MiLB.com, First Inning, Minor League Splits, and the individual affiliates’ official Web sites (listed here).
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
Top rookie-Jason Motte. Still not sure if he’ll be able to get by with just his fastball, but word is he’s improved his breaking pitch, so we shall see.
Breakout-I agree with your hunch about Descalso, he was my sleeper going into this past season. He disappointed for most of the season but was showing some signs of life the past couple of months. My safe pick however would be Lynn.
Sleeper-Francisco Rivera. His for a nice average as a teenager in A-ball, and it’s supported by his K/BB ratio and line drive rates. He showed little power in games but I’ve been told he has some pretty nifty 5′o clock power. I’m hoping he will start showing in games.
Top Rookie - COLBY RASMUS!!!!
Breakout Prospect - Mark McCormick (probably more wish than probability but I will stick with my guns…)
Sleeper - The Kopp
Top Rookie: Jess Todd (Reprising the McClellan/Wainwright role in the pen)
Breakout: Peter Kozma
Sleeper: Arquimedes Nieto (Gotta love that name. Look at that lefty split!)
Top 2009 Rookie: Jason Motte. As, erik mentioned in his comment, there was some concern regarding his effectivness of his pitches other than his FB, but if he can develop some consistency with his secondary pitches he has a shot at making an instant impact at the major league level.
This is very similar to the situatuion with CPR. CPR had a dominanting FB, but big leaguers will catch up to a FB if they see it enough. Once CPR developed a slider he found success.
Breakout: Niko Vasquez. I’m excited about what he could potentially bring to the table.
Sleeper: Adam Ottavino. He needs to make a move in 2009. Is he a possible Sept. 2009 callup? Nice post, DG…
Top rookie- Jason Motte. Right now I’m not sure any position players will get enough playing time to be considered the top rookie.
Breakout- Nico Vazquez. He’ll be nipping at Kozma’s heels. In fact, I wouldn’t put it out of the realm of possibility, especially Luhnow’s propensity to promote aggressively, to pass Kozma. Really exciting player who some call the steal of the draft.
Sleeper- Donovan Solano. He’s been a favorite of mine for quite some time. He showed a little bit more pop at Springfield and I think after another winter of weights and refining his mechanics he’ll show much more gap power. Could turn into another Placido Polanco type player.
Top rookie-Colby Rasmus-won’t break camp with the team, but will be there early in the season and make a Jay Bruce type impact…
Breakout-Adam Ottavino-another former #1 pick will figure it out after a disappointing 2008….
Sleeper-Sam Freeman-has a live arm, could become a bullpen contributor in the near future
Top Rookie- Chris Perez(He will not throw 16 inn before the season is over)
Breakout- Adam Ottavino(Showed some flashes of being the top pitching Prospect in System.Needs to find consistancy and Put hitters away.Arizona Fall League will help him.
Sleeper- Francisco Samuel- With improvements of Control could be in 3A by end of next year.Might be the best Arm in System.
DG,
Great post and topic. Thanks for the prospect updates, and please keep them coming.
- Top Rookie - Colby Rasmus.
- I think that Colby will again show his talent during the Spring and “earn” a spot on the big club. Once he does this category will be a moot point. An honorable mention should go to Jason Motte after last night’s performance.
- Breakout Player - Lance Lynn.
- I believe that he will follow the Clayton Mortenson/Jess Todd fast track through the system.
- Sleeper - Jose Martinez.
- The forgotten middle infielder (who is still very young) has a bounce back season, progressing all the way to Memphis.
Top Rook- Rasmus, he’ll be with the big club sooner rather than later, and while Motte may be here the whole year…Colby will have the biggest impact on this team.
Breakout- Gotta go with Vasquez as well. Great hitter, better defender than advertised. This time next year, he’s a better prospect than Kozma.
Sleeper- Richard Castillo or Fransisco Samuel
Top Rookie: I still think it will be Colby. Motte will be in the running for this honor as well.
Breakout: Deryk Hooker. I believe he slipped into the Top 30 last year. Next year he reprises the Jess Todd story of this year. Lynn and Vasquez both have an opportunity to take this title as well.
Sleeper: Scott Gorgen. All he does is strike batters out. Between Gorgen, Hooker and Lynn, I think the Cards will have 3 fast movers next year.