Title Bout: Has Jones clinched it?
TOWER GROVE — Atlanta third baseman Chipper Jones doesn’t have to take a swing this week with his balky right shoulder and he’ll likely edge Albert Pujols for his first career batting title. The numbers are too loaded in Jones’ favor for Pujols to catch up on his own.
He needs Jones to play.
Pujols has slipped well behind Jones after a 6-for-32 (.188) road trip that brings him home today to face Arizona. Pujols has also slipped behind Jones in on-base percentage, .467 to .453, though Pujols still leads by a healthy cushion in slugging (at .633, the only hitter better than .600). Because Jones has 71 fewer at-bats than Pujols this season, the switch-hitting Brave is more prone to bigger gains and larger drops in his average. Pujols, for example, would have to crank out an 11-for-11 jag while Jones rests his shoulder to catch Jones’ .3623 average. After an 11-for-11 run, Pujols would be hitting .3629.
Whereas, an 0-for-11 for slip Jones back into catching distance, at .3535.
Jones as had discomfort in the shoulder for about a month, but over the weekend it became too sore to throw or swing the bat effectively, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported. He had only three at-bats in the series, going hitless. For Jones, there are a few more titles at stake than the National League batting title. The AJC explains:
Jones said he doesn’t want to back into the title and expects to play at some point in the final seven games. The Braves finish the home schedule Sunday against the Mets, then close with games in Philadelphia and Houston.
“I have no doubt I’ll probably get back in there,” he said. “At what point, I don’t know.”
Jones has a shot at the first batting title by a Braves player since Terry Pendleton in 1991, and also is close to the highest recorded single-season average for a switch-hitter, Mickey Mantle’s .365 in 1957.
There seems to be a rallying of stars for Pujols to win his second MVP. Manny Ramirez a week ago. Ryan Howard recently. Spoke to Derrek Lee yesterday before the Cubs left Wrigley and he said Pujols numbers were “too remarkable” to ignore when it came to voting. The players vote on the Player of the Year award, but it’s the writers who decide the MVP. It will be interesting to see how the triple-crown jewels factor in, because Howard is poised to take two of the jewels and Pujols has all but dropped out of the race for the other.
These series splits for the two batting title contenders:
CHIPPER JONES - .3624 (158-for-436)
vs. Philadelphia Phillies, at Citizens Bank Park
Career vs. Phillies: .339 (188 games)
2008 vs. Phillies: 14-for-33 (.424)
Career at Citizens Bank: 33-for-107 (.308)
2008 on the road: 65-for-203 (.320)
Career vs. J.A. Happ, Monday: 1-for-3 (.333)
Career vs. Cole Hamels, Tuesday: 5-for-15 (.333)
Career vs. Brett Myers, Wednesday: 10-for-30 (.333)
***
ALBERT PUJOLS - .3491 (177-for-507)
vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, at Busch Stadium
Career vs. D’Backs: 55-for-169 (.325)
2008 vs. D’Backs: 2-for-10 (.200)
Career at Busch III: .333 (218 games)
2008 at home: 88-for-241 (.365)
Career vs. Brandon Webb, Monday: 5-for-21 (.238)
Career vs. Randy Johnson, Tuesday: 8-for-19 (.421)
Career vs. Max Scherzer, Wednesday: 0-0 (.—)
Career vs. Doug Davis, Thursday: 10-for-31 (.323)
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between. 
What if instead of Baseball Writers voting on the award, if managers from the NL voted for the NL’s MVP, and the AL managers did likewise for the AL? I think if you asked NL managers who they feared most in a lineup the majority of them would tell you AP. A manager could not vote for a player on his own team, I think this would be a really good way to judge MVP. To often we make to much of stats when looking at a MVP canidate, and stats are important and shoukd be considered, but the award should go to the player that means the most to his team (most VALUABLE player award). If you take AP away from the Cards then they wouldn’t have contended up until the final two weeks of the season. Just a thought as I read about the likes of Howard, Manny, and Lee endorse AP. Thoughts?
Or maybe you choose a select group of respected players from around the league to vote on the award? If each team could choose a represinative, and the players could select an MVP. Again ,though, players could not vote for a player on their team. There are a lot of flaws with this, but It was an interesting topic.
Right. Blame the writers. Because managers and coaches always nail their award votes with infallibility. (See: Gold Gloves; Palmeiro, Rafael; et. al.)
If the Dodgers win that division I don’t know how you don’t give it to Manny since he did it almost by himself.
So, if Manny wins the NL award do I get credit for the call because I picked him to win his first MVP award (granted it was the AL, but …)?
Which reminds me, it’s almost time to revisit the P-D predictions.
Shudder.
I’m not blaming the writers. I agree that the GG glove is not always given to the most deserving players. If you win one GG then you’ve probably won multiple GG. Greg Maddux is a perfect example of this, he won 17 GG. Did he deserve all of them? Maybe? Were there other canidates more deserving… Yes, there probably were?
The baseball writers do a good job choosing the awards, though. I was not in any way supporting my idea that I suggested earlier. It was simply just a thought that came to me when looking at the many different players that have said AP deserves the MVP award. Yes, I agree with you, DG, that the managers and coaches don’t always choose the most deserving canidate.
Dave, Its going to be tough not to give Manny the award considering what he has done to give the Dodgers a huge boost. But lets remember how mediocre the NL West is. Manny has really changed the whole Dodger lineup though, since the deal was made Andre Ethier has really come on strong for them. If the West is as compettive as either the East or Central then the Dodgers probably don’t come close to the playoffs. I think that the Dodgers are taking advantage of a weak division.
I didn’t think a player could qualify for the batting title with as few at bats as Chipper Jones has!!
I will say that one reason to let the writers do it, rather than players and coaches, is that they don’t get to see as much baseball as the writers do. They are focused on their game, preparing for it, training for it, etc. Sure, they see some others, especially on divisional rivals, but I don’t know that they get the big picture that the writers do.
‘Course, we know the writers aren’t perfect at looking at big pictures rather than storylines. (No offense, DG.)
The NL MVP will come down to the same two factors that have decided most MVP races recently: first, how much weight does one give triple crown stats versus OBP and slugging, and second how much weight one gives to an MVP candidate being on a playoff team.
If I had to bet right now, my money would be on Ryan Howard. He leads MLB by a substantial margin in two out of three triple crown categories and he’s on a team likely headed to the playoffs. I think it’s utterly ridiculous he will win, because he’s batting .247, has nearly 200 Ks, and even WITH all those home runs is slugging exactly 100 points less than Albert. I’m also sure the fact that Howard has 171 AB with RISP to Albert’s 110 won’t be taken into account at all.
Bottom line, I think between falling behind to Chipper in the batting race, and the Cards slipping into 4th place, Albert’s MVP chances are looking pretty bleak.
It’s not the ABs, it’s the PAs that determine eligibility for the batting title. Chipper Jones has plenty.
DG: you are correct: it’s plate appearances (502) but I seem to recall there’s some obscure formula for allowing a winner even when the batter has less than 502– I think they add appearances on (to get to 502) and then if the BA is still higher than the second qualifier, they win the BA title. Could you check it out?
Thanks,
Allen
Allen,
That is correct. A hitter who does not have enough at-bats to qualify for the title can add hitless at-bats to his plate appearance total to reach the required 501 or 502 or whatever. If that is 15 PA then the hitter must take an 0-for-15, if it is 60 PA, then it’s an 0-for-60.
dg
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