Wainwright and his Central issue
CHICAGO — The National League Central woke up this morning with four teams that had winning records and one club, the Chicago Cubs, poised to runaway with the division title, possibly winning it by at least 10 games. It is, arguably, the toughest division in baseball (the AL East objects!), and inarguably the toughest neighborhood in the National League.
“I said at the beginning of the year, we were going to get everybody’s attention,” manager Tony La Russa said this morning in the Wrigley Field visitor’s clubhouse. “There’s no easy series.”
For a young pitcher trying to establish himself as an ace in the division, there is a clear message: Get used to it. Gonna see these teams a lot.
Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright is about to take the mound this afternoon, facing NL Central stalwart Carlos Zambrano and still looking for his first victory against the rival Chicago Cubs. In his young career, Wainwright is 0-3 with a 6.44 ERA against the Cubs. That includes 14 appearances, nine of which were in relief. As a starter, Wainwright is 0-3 with a 7.07 ERA, and that includes a solid 6 1/3 innings earlier this season when he allowed just one earned run.
Wainwright is coming off a dud in Pittsburgh, a start he later called one of his most frustrating as a major leaguer. But the Central has, at times, confounded Wainwright.
Entering today’s game, Wainwright is 11-9 with a 4.20 ERA against Central foes. He is 14-7 with a 2.73 ERA against the other team’s he’s faced for an overal ERA of 3.49. Since moving to the starting rotation, Wainwright has been one of the game’s most effective righthanders, earning a place alongside Cy Young Award winners like Jake Peavy and Brandon Webb. He just hasn’t been as effective against his own division, with the exception of rifling through Houston several times. His ERAs against three division teams are at least 1 1/2 runs higher than his career ERA.
As a starter vs. NL Central teams, he is 11-9 with a 4.21 ERA in 151 2/3 innings. He has struck out 120 batters, but he’s also allowed 1.41 walks/hits per inning pitched.
“If you look at a guy who is an outstanding pitcher, you look at all of it, what is against everybody,” La Russa said. “Another piece of it is you look at how outstanding he is against the division and you recognize that he’s got to do eight, 10 more years of it and then he is consistently an outstanding pitcher.”
Wainwright against the Central, as a starter:
vs. CHI … 5 starts … 0-3 … 28 ip … 22 ER … 37 H … 24 K … 7.07 ERA
vs. HOU … 6 starts … 5-0 … 42 ip … 10 ER … 31 H … 29 K … 2.14 ERA
vs. MIL … 6 starts … 2-2 … 38 2/3 ip … 15 ER … 35 H … 32 K … 3.49 ERA
vs. PIT … 7 starts … 3-2 … 43 ip … 24 ER … 54 H … 26 K … 5.02 ERA
vs. CIN … 3 starts … 1-2 … 16 2/3 ip … 10 ER … 19 H … 9 K … 5.39 ERA
Earlier this season, as Wainwright prepped for a duel with Houston’s Roy Oswalt, I asked Oswalt about how to remain successful in the age of unbalanced schedules. Oswalt has made at least 23 starts against every opposing NL Centra team, and he’s thrown at least 160 innings against each foe. His answer on how’s remained successful:
“I find the biggest thing is never to have a pattern,” Oswalt said. “A lot of guys will develop a pattern, especially when you’re playing at their home park and they can watch where the catcher is setting up. Video is real big today. So try not to get into a pattern where guys can sit on pitches late in a ballgame.”
Oswalt and Zambrano — who just got raked for five runs in the first inning, including a grand slam by Adam Kennedy — offer good examples for Wainwright, who the Cardinals have signed as a pillar of their rotation through, possibly, 2013. Similar to Oswalt, Zambrano has at least 20 starts against every NL Central rival, and he has at least 135 innings pitched against each.
Both righthanders have ERAs inside the division that are better than their career ERAs. Both are at least 20 games better than .500 against the NL Central teams, and Oswalt is a remarkable 68-32. (Though it is sweetened by an uncanny 22-1 record vs. Cincinnati.)
Those central standards and their total numbers against the division:
- Zambrano (3.41 career) … 763 2/3 ip, 3.22 ERA, 55-35 vs. NLC
- Oswalt (3.14 career) … 829 ip, 3.13 ERA, 68-32 NLC
As Wainwright grinds through a scoreless first inning here at Wrigley, that’s the kind of Central well-being he’s looking to establish.
“I think the ultimate goal is to go into a home stand against a team that you’ve faced a lot of times and them knowing that they have to show up and play a great game to win,” Wainwright said earlier this season. “If you show up and guys are licking their chops to face you, something’s wrong.”
Added La Russa today about a pitcher’s ability to gain a foothold against rivals he sees repeatedly: “The more you see a team, and the more you keep pitching well against them, that means you have a lot of weapons.”
Zambrano was without his today. It’s the second inning. His 21st start against the Cardinals already over — with only a few baserunners still left to remember it by.
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Derrick Goold said he was going to Mizzou for capital-J journalism, but after growing up in the Time Zone Baseball Forgot he was really drawn to MU sitting between two major-league cities. Goold joined the Post-Dispatch in 2001 after working for The Times-Picayune and Rocky Mountain News, covering sports from LSU to NHL and every level of baseball in between.
He looked good in his 5 innings today! Helps I guess when your offense puts up a double digit run total.
Just a quick thought here: TLR has been throwing out some..”especially” strange lineups lately. Do guys like Aaron Miles, Josh Phelps, and Felipe Lopez actually factor in as 2009 Of’ers? As I’ve said before the Of situation is filled with canidates already. I’d consider Raz, Luddy, Ank, Joey Bombs, Stavi, Schu, and Barton all potential OF’ers for 2009. So why doesn’t TLR callup Raz or play Stavi reguarly? And really the Cards haven’t been “done” for weeks now. They still have had a chance to make a playoff push. Just a quick, minor example: Tues. night when the Red’s Edwin Encarnacion hit a bases loaded double that scored three runs into LF. Lopez, who had started in LF, then overthrew two cutoff men and instead of allowing two runs, three Reds crossed the plate. Now, obviously this didn’t make a difference in the games outcome, but Lopez is a SS/2B by trade and someone like Luddy or Stavi could probably have hit the cutoff man and saved a run. This isn’t a great example, but my point is if we are looking ahead to 2009, are Lopez, Phelps, and Aaron Miles really potential OF canidates. If not then why is TLR playing them there?
Great post, DG! Also, with Zambrano’s no-hitter, I’m not so sure it was a good move by Lou Pinella. Zambrano had, of course, missed some time with a shoulder issue, and its like I said with CC Sabathia:”At this point in the year, you use these guys to pitch in October”. Did the Cubs pay the dividends today with Zambrano struggling? He threw 110 pitches in his no-hitter, now that isn’t a ton of pitches, but at this point in the season you have to preserve his arm, and I think possibly the Cubs payed today. He absolutley got hammered.
I didn’t think it was a particularly good start from Adam today. It never is when you can only go five. His fastball was consistency in the upper 80’s which is too low. He was throwing way too many pitches and went to full counts far too often.
I chalk it up to conditioning. I hope he gets himself strong for next season. He has to be our ace.
For Wainwright to move into the Central elite– he’s got to figure out how to beat all of the teams in the Central– including Pittsburg & Cincy. The Pirates have hammered him this year. It’s not just Adam… as a whole the Cards’ staff did not fare well against Pittsburg and going 5-10 vs Milwaukie just doesn’t cut it.