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09.19.2008 1:48 pm
Wainwright and his Central issue
Derrick Goold
St. Louis Post-Dispatch

CHICAGO — The National League Central woke up this morning with four teams that had winning records and one club, the Chicago Cubs, poised to runaway with the division title, possibly winning it by at least 10 games. It is, arguably, the toughest division in baseball (the AL East objects!), and inarguably the toughest neighborhood in the National League.

“I said at the beginning of the year, we were going to get everybody’s attention,” manager Tony La Russa said this morning in the Wrigley Field visitor’s clubhouse. “There’s no easy series.”

For a young pitcher trying to establish himself as an ace in the division, there is a clear message: Get used to it. Gonna see these teams a lot.

Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright is about to take the mound this afternoon, facing NL Central stalwart Carlos Zambrano and still looking for his first victory against the rival Chicago Cubs. In his young career, Wainwright is 0-3 with a 6.44 ERA against the Cubs. That includes 14 appearances, nine of which were in relief. As a starter, Wainwright  is 0-3 with a 7.07 ERA, and that includes a solid 6 1/3 innings earlier this season when he allowed just one earned run.

Wainwright is coming off a dud in Pittsburgh, a start he later called one of his most frustrating as a major leaguer. But the Central has, at times, confounded Wainwright.

Entering today’s game, Wainwright is 11-9 with a 4.20 ERA against Central foes. He is 14-7 with a 2.73 ERA against the other team’s he’s faced for an overal ERA of 3.49. Since moving to the starting rotation, Wainwright has been one of the game’s most effective righthanders, earning a place alongside Cy Young Award winners like Jake Peavy and Brandon Webb. He just hasn’t been as effective against his own division, with the exception of rifling through Houston several times. His ERAs against three division teams are at least 1 1/2 runs higher than his career ERA.

As a starter vs. NL Central teams, he is 11-9 with a 4.21 ERA in 151 2/3 innings. He has struck out 120 batters, but he’s also allowed 1.41 walks/hits per inning pitched.

“If you look at a guy who is an outstanding pitcher, you look at all of it, what is against everybody,” La Russa said. “Another piece of it is you look at how outstanding he is against the division and you recognize that he’s got to do eight, 10 more years of it and then he is consistently an outstanding pitcher.”

Wainwright against the Central, as a starter:

vs. CHI … 5 starts … 0-3 … 28 ip … 22 ER … 37 H … 24 K … 7.07 ERA

vs. HOU … 6 starts … 5-0 … 42 ip … 10 ER … 31 H … 29 K … 2.14 ERA

vs. MIL … 6 starts … 2-2 … 38 2/3 ip … 15 ER … 35 H … 32 K … 3.49 ERA

vs. PIT … 7 starts … 3-2 … 43 ip … 24 ER … 54 H … 26 K … 5.02 ERA

vs. CIN … 3 starts … 1-2 … 16 2/3 ip … 10 ER … 19 H … 9 K … 5.39 ERA

Earlier this season, as Wainwright prepped for a duel with Houston’s Roy Oswalt, I asked Oswalt about how to remain successful in the age of unbalanced schedules. Oswalt has made at least 23 starts against every opposing NL Centra team, and he’s thrown at least 160 innings against each foe. His answer on how’s remained successful:

“I find the biggest thing is never to have a pattern,” Oswalt said. “A lot of guys will develop a pattern, especially when you’re playing at their home park and they can watch where the catcher is setting up. Video is real big today. So try not to get into a pattern where guys can sit on pitches late in a ballgame.”

Oswalt and Zambrano — who just got raked for five runs in the first inning, including a grand slam by Adam Kennedy — offer good examples for Wainwright, who the Cardinals have signed as a pillar of their rotation through, possibly, 2013. Similar to Oswalt, Zambrano has at least 20 starts against every NL Central rival, and he has at least 135 innings pitched against each.

Both righthanders have ERAs inside the division that are better than their career ERAs. Both are at least 20 games better than .500 against the NL Central teams, and Oswalt is a remarkable 68-32. (Though it is sweetened by an uncanny 22-1 record vs. Cincinnati.)

Those central standards and their total numbers against the division:

  • Zambrano (3.41 career) … 763 2/3 ip, 3.22 ERA, 55-35 vs. NLC
  • Oswalt (3.14 career) … 829 ip, 3.13 ERA, 68-32 NLC

As Wainwright grinds through a scoreless first inning here at Wrigley, that’s the kind of Central well-being he’s looking to establish.

“I think the ultimate goal is to go into a home stand against a team that you’ve faced a lot of times and them knowing that they have to show up and play a great game to win,” Wainwright said earlier this season. “If you show up and guys are licking their chops to face you, something’s wrong.”

Added La Russa today about a pitcher’s ability to gain a foothold against rivals he sees repeatedly: “The more you see a team, and the more you keep pitching well against them, that means you have a lot of weapons.”

Zambrano was without his today. It’s the second inning. His 21st start against the Cardinals already over — with only a few baserunners still left to remember it by.

-30-


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