TOWER GROVE — When San Diego decided it had to explore trading Cy Young Award-winning ace Jake Peavy, the first hurdle to clear was the righthander’s no-trade clause. The Padres approached Peavy’s agent, Barry Axelrod, who told me the other night that Peavy, when requested supplied a list of five teams, all in the National League.

The St. Louis Cardinals, as has been reported, were on that list. They were one of Peavy’s Fave 5.

That alone does not mean there’s a connection.

Nothing sparked during a brief conversation between Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak and Padres GM Kevin Towers. Columnist Bernie Miklasz reported much earlier this week that the Cardinals are not a player for Peavy, and colleague Joe Strauss offered additional details about how the Cardinals and Padres are unlikely to swing a deal. The reaction — here, in message boards, over at Facebook, in my inbox, on the radio, etc. — to the Cardinals not being able to act on Peavy’s invitation for a trade is interesting. It may also be misdirected. The perception is there wasn’t a “spark” because the Cardinals are unwilling to part with what the Padres want.

Willing or not, it doesn’t matter right now. Cardinals don’t have what the Padres want.

They can’t trade what they don’t have.

Padres ace Jake Peavy throws a game-deciding pitch to Albert Pujols in the playoffs a few years back.

Occam’s Razor is a philosophical principle that states that the explanation of a phenomenom should include as few assumptions as possible. So many assumptions are coming into play with this Peavy reaction. Consider then … Peavy’s Razor: San Diego is trading an ace and looking for a young and inexpensive starting pitcher (and more) in return. Don’t clutter the statement with further assumptions or previously packed baggage. The Cardinals don’t have the Young Starting Pitcher to trade. The deal, right now, does not come down to greedily holding on to Colby Rasmus or overvaluing some other prospect. It boils down to not dealing, say, in the extreme, … Adam Wainwright.

Spoke to two people with knowledge of the Padres’ plans with Peavy and both said San Diego is looking to get a major league-ready starting pitcher in return for Peavy. I asked one of baseball sources if the Cardinals’ excess of outfielders was a conversation-starter, and the answer was: “Not at the moment, no.”

As San Diego Union-Tribune’s excellent beat writer Tom Krasovic wrote:

General Manager Kevin Towers has said young pitching likely will be the starting point for any trade involving Peavy, and no fewer than three of his Padres scouts watched Hanson overmatch prospects from other organizations.

The Hanson mentioned is Atlanta Braves’ prospect Tommy Hanson. He’s throwing in the Arizona Fall League, and Krasovic reports that the Padres had three scouts at one of the righthander’s recent starts. Hanson led all of the full-season minor-league starters with a 2.41 ERA, he struck out 163 in 138 innings and he threw a no-hitter in Class AA. Hanson, who throws in the mid-90s mph, is also pitching well in Arizona.

In his article about how thrilled Chipper Jones is about the possible acquisition of Peavy — Atlanta and Houston were probably atop Peavy’s five — AJC writer/blogger extraordinaire David O’Brien mentions Hanson and Charlie Morton. Fits the profile. Morton, 25, went 5-2, 2.05 ERA in Class AAA with 72 strikeouts in 79 innings. He pitched 74 2/3 innings in the majors, going 4-8, 6.15 ERA with some control troubles (41 walks, 48 Ks).

Atlanta’s GM Frank Wren told the Associated Press that he’d be reluctant to part with his prospects for Peavy. Roy Oswalt and Houston would love to add Peavy, but the Astros aren’t exactly brimming with pitching prospects to offer. Milwaukee, the New York Yankees and a few others have young starting pitchers with major-league experience — or on the brink of it — to talk with San Diego, but they don’t have the five-favorite blessing of Peavy, the unanimous Cy Young winner in 2007.

The Cardinals … well, they have a few pitchers.

Jake Peavy pitches this season at Busch Stadium, with Troy Glaus rounding third in the background.

The Cardinals’ surplus right now is on the right side of the bullpen (Jason Motte, Chris Perez) and in the outfield. Neither fits what the Padres want. The starting-pitcher price tag for Peavy is a tough one for the Cardinals to fill. Jaime Garcia, considered the organization’s top starting-pitcher prospect, is out for the year after Tommy John surgery. The guy who may have been the Cardinals’ Hanson, Adam Ottavino, has struggled this year, and is 0-1, 5.87 ERA in Arizona as he works to reclaim his mechanics. Mike Parisi, P.J. Walters and Clayton Mortensen may all pitch in the majors, but opinions of them vary from scout to scout, organization to organization. (One minor-league coach recently told me that Walters will start in the majors; a couple scouts told me this summer that they saw his ceiling as a No. 5 starter. Tomato. Tomahto.) Jess Todd and Mitchell Boggs both had strong seasons — Todd climbed three levels; Boggs was voted by the PCL managers as the best pitching prospect — but both profile as relievers to some scouts.

The match isn’t there.

It ain’t Rasmus. It’s starting pitching.

Towers recently told MLB.com that he wanted to “slow the process down.” He’s described this past few weeks as a fact-finding operation. There could be movement coming at the GM Meetings during the first week of November. The power of Peavy’s no-trade clause could handcuff the Padres’ ability to get the starting pitching they desire. That could significantly change the price tag. Maybe an outfielder or a reliever does start to interest the Padres. Right now, it’s what the Cardinals don’t have that dictates their ability to play in the Peavy Market. If the Padres’ wish list shifts, it’s what the Cardinals already have that could dictate their interest.

As described earlier this week in the PostCards entry and further clarified in Strauss’ article, the Cardinals have a lot of money already tied up in their rotation through the length of Peavy’s relatively friendly contract. After signing Kyle Lohse, the Cardinals are looking at having, possibly, $36 million dedicated to three starting pitchers in 2012. Peavy would add an additional $17 million. Chris Carpenter’s contract is guaranteed through 2011, and bringing on Peavy would mean dedicating almost $50 million to four pitchers, healthy or not. Guaranteed. Not exactly financial flexibility, especially when it comes to pitching. And that’s a completely different razor …

From this week’s mailbag:

PITCHER … 2009 … 2010 … 2011 … 2012 … 2013

Chris Carpenter … $14m … $14.5m … $15m … $15m* … n/s

Adam Wainwright … $2.6m … $4.7m … $6.5m … $9m* … $12m*

Kyle Lohse … $7.1m … $8.9m … $11.9m … $11.9m … n/s

Jake Peavy … $8m … $15m … $16m … $17m … $22m*

TOTALS … $31.7m … $43.1m … $49.4m … $52.9m … $34m

* — Option. N/S — Not signed.

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